Muddy Waters

I've been playing round with the 15min chart on SPX and have found a rising channel that looks as though it might have some legs:

The channel top and bottom both started on the final day of the move to the low, and apart from the move to the last high within it, it looks solid and indicates that we should find resistance in the 1120 area.

I've left the IHS marked in as it is still technically valid, but I wouldn't trust a head and shoulders pattern that pulled back so hard past the neckline myself.

In the very short term it is worth noting that the RSI, MACD and stochs on this chart all look very overbought.

The market has been floundering without clear direction since the recent low. Looking at the copper chart, if it is as good an indicator as many think, this latest rise should not be trusted particularly:

One problem for equities is that after hitting the lower trendline of the broadening descending wedge two weeks ago, EURUSD has failed to make any meaningful bounce. It just traded sideways from the bottom of the wedge to the top over nine weeks after the last time that it hit the lower trendline in February. It could yet do the same again:

GBPUSD has been bouncing well since hitting the bottom of that broadening descending wedge at the same time, and is forming a broadening ascending wedge on the return to the top trendline of the larger wedge in the 1.50 area. I'm looking for a hit of the lower trendline in the 1.4525 area today or tomorrow for a good long entry: