BB Pinch

If we were currently looking at a strong impulse wave up on ES/SPX, then the ES 15min RSI buy and sell signals would have stopped working. Clearly therefore we are not looking at that, and ES is still trading within the channel I posted a couple of weeks ago, though it hasn't hit channel support or resistance in recent days. Right now ES is on a buy signal and is back in overbought territory, though there is no ES 15min RSI negative divergence yet:

As I mentioned last week we are now in the ideal topping zone for the Spring high in the 6 week period covering the end of March to the beginning of May. SPX also likes to make highs near established resistance zones and the only one of those now left is at the 2007 high at 1576. SPX may break through and put us in uncharted territory of course but until that happens I'm looking for a possible high there and also watching the candidate H&S necklines established at 1538 and 1485. Rising channel support on the SPX 60min chart has now reached the 1540 area, so any hit of that possible H&S neckline would now necessitate a break of rising channel support:

The bollinger bands on the daily SPX chart are now pinching together. This tends to precede a decent move. That move could still be to break well above the 2007 high, but all things considered I'm leaning towards the next big move being downwards:

The next big move being downwards is also supported by the RSI setup on RUT and TRAN. Here's the  TRAN daily chart showing the strong negative RSI divergence there:

EURUSD has rallied a bit, but the rally has failed so far at broken 1.288 support on negative 60min RSI divergence. If that continues to hold the next big support level is at 1.266:

I was looking at the rising wedge type setup on CL last week and after the retracement yesterday that has now evolved into a rising channel. Strong support now established at 96:

There are two main likely paths here over the next few weeks in my view. Firstly we see the Spring high made around the 1576 level in the next few days, followed by a topping process and then a strong decline. Secondly we see 1576 broken with conviction and SPX would then most likely run up over 1600 in April before making the Spring high somewhere between 1600 and 1650. Until we see 1576 break with conviction I'm leaning strongly towards the first scenario.