Some Friday Thoughts

I'm too late to post a pre-market post today but I have an opportunity to post some quick charts and I'll do that here. Normal service will be resuming on Monday as I'll be back from holiday.

First on ES a small rising channel has formed from the last low and channel resistance was hit and established at the high yesterday. The next obvious target is channel support, close to the 200 hour MA in the 1687 area. At the least upside today should be very limited by channel resistance being not far above. ES 60min chart:

In the event that we see a break up from this rising channel on ES, which is possible though I'm not expecting it, there is a hard limit above at the weekly upper bollinger band on SPX. That's currently in the 1716 area and if we see a strong day might close today as high as 1718 or so. It is rare to see a close above the weekly upper bollinger band so we should have a hard upside limit there today. SPX weekly chart:

Also worth noting on the chart above are the two target areas that I have marked in above on SPX. The lower level is two channel resistance trendlines that should cross by the end of August in the 1735-1750 area. If that breaks then I have broadening ascending wedge resistance in the 1780-1800 area (and rising of course). Both of these targets are potential major interim top levels after which I would be looking for significant retracements and I'm currently favoring the lower target.

On other markets I'll just show gold futures today, where GC hit the broadening ascending wedge target I posted on twitter earlier this week and broke below it. I think the bear market in precious metals is most likely finished or finishing, but if we are going to see the gold lows retested that move would most likely be starting here. I'd be looking closely at the 1150-60 area and would be seeing that as a long entry opportunity. GC 60min chart:

I'm expecting to see more upside on ES next week but for today I'm leaning cautiously short. If we see a strong move up I would not expect SPX to close above 1718. Normal daily pre-market posts will be resuming on Monday.