Gap And .......

I posted the chart below on twitter last night showing the falling wedge that has formed on SPX from the current swing high, and commenting that this setup will usually be a bull flag that would resolve up into at least a retest of that previous high. I considered the various aspects of this setup and gave 80% odds in favor of a retest of the current 2011 swing high.

However I did note that when a setup like this does break down then that would often take the form of a breakaway gap down through support that was not filled. SPX has gapped down through daily middle band support at the open today, and that gap has not yet been filled. If this is a serious support break then that gap most likely won't fill. If it does fill and we see a daily close today at or over the daily middle band (currently at 2075/6), then support will have held and that would strongly favor a retest of 2111 next week. SPX 60min chart:

SPX daily chart:

ES Jun 60min chart:

Everyone have a great weekend :-)

This Time For Real?

A slightly unusual post this morning as I published it early by accident. Rather than delete it and start again I've just edited the post so this is now the completed version if you saw an incomplete version earlier.

That was a very nasty bull trap last night. As the markets closed yesterday the IHS that I was looking at on ES yesterday morning had completed and broken up and SPX closed back above the 50 hour MA. I did note on the ES chart below that I did for theartofchart.net chart service subscribers last night that the breaks needed to survive the night, and they didn't do that, with ES invalidating the IHS and making a new retracement low in globex.

So what now? Well that was a failure at resistance and next up is to see whether SPX and ES can break support. The globex low was at a test of the daily middle band on ES and I'm expecting to see a test of the daily middle band on SPX in trading hours today. Support on SPX is very clear, with a possible sloping H&S neckline in the 2078 area, the current retracement low at 2077, and the daily middle band at 2075. If SPX can sustain a break below these then the H&S target is in the 2040 area, the daily lower band is in the 2035 area, and I have possible larger H&S necklines in the 2030 and 2020 areas that I'd be watching for possible support. SPX daily chart:

That was a nasty bull trap last night but I've written here many times before that when an an H&S or double top/bottom pattern fails, that tends to be just after they break up or down through the neckline/support. This was a classic example of that happening. ES Jun 60min chart:

On NQ there are a couple of H&S options here with a target range in the 4160-4260 area depending on which option seems more likely from what happens now. NQ Jun 60min chart:

On TF I was looking at the impressive trendline resistance that TF was testing when I did this chart last night and noting that it looked impressively solid. It held. TF Jun 60min chart:

Bears have a chance to move this topping process along to the next stage today. Support is clear and all they have to do is break it if they can. I like their chances here as long as yesterday's high at 2099.89 isn't broken. I say the next stage because after the first topping pattern plays out in a process like this then then a larger topping pattern will generally form. As I said, I'll be watching the possible H&S necklines in the 2030 and 2020 areas for possible support.

Today is a cycle trend day and so there are 70% odds that either buyers or sellers will dominate the day, though this does not require a full trend day. On this setup the bears are starting with a clear edge, though predicting direction on cycle trend days is very tricky, so that doesn't necessarily mean much.

Much Ado About (Probably) Nothing

Apologies for the late post today. A very busy morning.

The FOMC news today is likely to be that there is no news, that interest rates won't be rising this month, and there's no press conference after two to add spin to the announcement. Nonetheless markets will likely move on this absence of news, and I've been considering which way that might go. The bad news though is that there are decent setups in both directions here.

On the bear side there is a clear setup on SPX for a break lower from an H&S that has mostly formed now. On a new retracement low below 2077 then an H&S would be breaking down with a target in the 2042 area. SPX 60min chart:

On the bull side there is an equally clear IHS that has mostly formed on ES at a 2091 neckline. On a break up the IHS would have alternate targets at either a retest of the current swing high at 2105 or a marginal new swing high at 2112 (ES). ES Jun 60min chart:

Stan and I are favoring the bull scenario here unless the current retracement low at 2077.52 SPX is broken. On a sustained break back over the 50 hour MA at 2093 SPX then I'll be looking for a retest of the current swing high at 2011.05 SPX and likely a marginal new high in what should be the second high on a double top.

FOMC Chop?

I'm pressed for time this morning so this is a good day to post the bonus charts that I did for theartofchart.net subscribers this morning. This gives you guys a now rare look at the non-equity index work that I do there nowadays, and if anyone would like to see these every morning, then all you need to do is sign up for the daily video service and you can do that here. If you're thinking of doing that then I'd suggest doing that soon, as a week or two after our website upgrade our plan is to increase the price for new subscribers. The current plan is to do that website upgrade is this coming weekend. No price rises will ever be applied to an existing subscriber as long as their subscription is continuous.

On SPX yesterday the low was 2077, slightly above my target in the 2074 area but maybe close enough. The key levels today are the ES weekly pivot at 2083.2 (approx 2087/8 SPX), and the SPX 50 hour MA at 2091 (approx 2086/7 ES). Under these levels this current pullback can go lower, above then the lean would be higher. Over 2092 ES (approx 2096/7 SPX) I'd be looking for a retest of the current high high at 2111 and likely marginally higher.

ES Jun 60min chart:

NQ Jun 60min chart:

TF Jun 60min chart:

DX Jun 60min chart:

CL Jun 60min chart:

GC Apr 60min chart:

ZB Jun 60min chart:

I'm looking for a short term topping pattern to form here and given that about 70% of reversal patterns on SPX are some kind of double top or bottom, there are decent odds that we will see a retest of the 2011 swing high after the current pullback completes. Ideally that would go a little lower but it may have already bottomed out.

FOMC days today and tomorrow of course. Historically these don't tend to be big red days, and I'm not expecting to see one of those today or (assuming that the Fed don't raise interest rates from almost nothing to very slightly more than almost nothing) tomorrow.

The Three Possibly Unrelated Bears

Using charts from the ones that I did last night for theartofchart.net basic chart service subscribers, so the ES chart is a few hours old now. 

Friday was a strange day looking at SPX, NDX and RUT side by side. NDX/NQ was daddy bear, making the target I gave in the morning and the test of decent support that I gave at the same time. SPX/ES was mummy bear, with a decent retrace but not reaching obvious support. RUT/TF was (possibly adopted) baby bear,  becoming so detached from the other two that RUT actually returned to retest the current swing high in the afternoon. 

So where does that leave us this morning? Well there are mixed signals. On SPX the important 50 hour MA, currently at 2091, was broken and  retested as resistance, and with rising wedge also broken the obvious target remains at the possible H&S neckline in the 2074 area. There are no 60min or 15min buy signals yet on SPX, NDX or RUT. SPX 60min chart:

There is however a 60min buy signal fixed on ES that I'm concerned about, as well as a possible IHS setup on SPX and double bottom on ES. No buy signal on NQ or (obviously) TF. A rally back over the overnight high at 2091.50 ES would suggest a retest of the current swing high. ES Jun 60min chart: 

The best pattern from the February lows is the rising wedge on RUT, and within that wedge the next obvious target is very much wedge support, currently in the 1124 area. The obvious overall lean is short until that wedge support is tested. As RUT retested the current swing high on Friday that would obviously still be some way below. RUT 60min chart: 

The obvious read here is that SPX should test that 2074 area today and we might get a bounce there. I'll be keeping one eye on the exit for trades either way on this setup today. 

Follow Through Needed

The 60min RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals on SPX that fixed in the last hour on Wednesday were playing out yesterday. The RSI 5 signal has made target, but the RSI 14 sell signal is still some way short of target. The low yesterday was at a test of the important 50 hour MA on SPX and it could find support there. The falling wedge that I posted on twitter yesterday afternoon is suggesting a possible strong bounce or retest of Wednesday's high, and if bears want to avoid that then they have important targets below to be tested and broken this morning.

On SPX the key target is rising wedge support from the February low, currently in the 2084 area. A break below would open up the possible H&S neckline in the 2072 area. SPX 60min chart:

On RUT the key target is rising wedge support in the 1120 area. I'm seeing RUT as the lead index here so I'll be watching that carefully. RUT 60min chart:

The broken falling wedge from the high on SPX looks bullish, but the other patterns I'm watching here are the H&S on NQ that broken down on the GOOG earnings last night and has a target in the 4435 area (not shown) and the TF double top that is breaking down with a target in the 1120 area. With the open 60min sell signals the bears have the technical edge this morning in my view, even without the bigger picture daily sell signals. TF Jun 60min chart:

I'd like to see an AM high that fails today into breaks of those support trendlines. If a rally gets going this morning then that could extend into a marginal new high on SPX but would be unlikely to get much higher.

If you missed the educational webinar that Stan and I did yesterday after the close on using TA in trading then the recording for that is posted here. Everyone have a great weekend :-)

Candidate High - Need Some Support Breaks

Using the charts I did for chart service subscribers at theartofchart.net last night.

SPX didn't quite make my 2114-16 target area yesterday, but it reached 2011, and the pullback in the last hour was sharp enough to fix an SPX 60min sell signal. Having had a look across the indices I'm logging this as a candidate high and what would be required next are some significant support breaks.

The first support break I was looking at on the SPX chart last night is a small one but we've already seen that break at the open today, and that is the break of rising wedge support on the little rising wedge from last week's low at 2040. SPX 60min chart:

A 60min sell signal also fixed on RUT, and on the larger rising wedge on RUT there has already been the touch of rising wedge support that SPX missed doing yesterday. RUT 60min chart:

I'm not huge on trading with correlations, but I would say that to the extent that this move up on SPX has been supported by the big rally on oil, that support may well be ending here, as this is a very sweet setup on oil to retest the current bear market low at 26. We'll see how that goes. WTIC daily chart:

I have strong support on SPX in the 2078-84 area (approx 2072-8 ES), and I'm not getting excited about the prospects for a retracement here until that support is broken, but the setup here looks promising so far. We'll see how that develops today and tomorrow.

Looking for 2114-6 Candidate High on SPX today

Yesterday's low at 2091/2 SPX (2085 ES) was retested overnight in globex and held. Unless that fails first today the obvious next target above is in the 2114/5 area at trendline resistance. That is supported by the intersection of two resistance trendlines on ES there as well, and if hit that will be a possible top for this move up from the February low, something I would call a candidate high. Ideally we'd test that today and there would be a clear reversal there, ideally into a red close for the day. SPX 60min chart:

ES Jun 60min chart:

This would be a strong setup to finally end this move today and, if we see that test today, I'll be looking for a swing short entry there. If we don't see that test today then trendline resistance may be at 2117 or above tomorrow and if we see a break over 2116 SPX then a full retest of the 2134 all time high would become much more likely. This is therefore a limited time setup and we'll see how that goes today.

Strong Resistance Broken

There are plenty of reasons to expect a strong retracement soon. There are strong open daily sell signals fixed on SPX, NDX and RUT. The 'Crazytown' extreme overbought area relative to the 45 day pivot has been tested repeatedly over the last week, and with Crazytown starting at 2085 today, ES has spent the whole day so far in Crazytown. This is an extreme level and periods trading inside it do not tend to last long

That said the bears had the reassurance of being not far below major resistance trendlines until yesterday afternoon, and those major trendlines are now not far below, which means that they are no longer resistance, and may possibly now turn into support. I noted on my SPX daily chart a couple of weeks ago that a break above the SPX trendline that broke yesterday would have a target at a retest of the all time high at 2134. Unless we see a break back over 2116 then I'm still looking for a strong retracement before that test. If we see a break back over 2116 SPX then I'd be looking for a test of the high first and then most likely that strong retracement very soon afterwards. The area above 'Crazytown' is 'Bet Jerry's House' and it's not called that because SPX has ever spent much time there in the past. That starts at 2115 SPX today and I would take a moment just to clarify that under no circumstances would I ever suggest going all in on any trade, as regardless of the setup that is never a sane option.

There is very likely going to be a strong retracement soon. The odds now favor that being a retracement into a continuation up to retest the all time high, unless that has already been retested before the retracement starts, in which case the retracement would be more likely to run away to the downside, with possible double top support then at 1810 SPX.

Short term, in the absence of a strong resistance level above. I'm going to be relying on the RSI divergences with which I've been calling the short term turns very well over the last couple of weeks even more to identify the possible swing high areas. SPX daily chart:

The ES 60min RSI 14 sell signal was important in identifying the two of the last three lows and the last two highs. There's no current negative divergence here and there won't be unless there is a full retest of the globex high at 2098.5 ES. I'm leaning towards seeing that retested with a marginal new high in the 2099/00 area today and at that stage bears could then fix a sell signal (with a retracement) to make a likely short term high. We'll see whether they can manage that. ES Jun 60min chart:

Today is day five of an upper band ride on SPX and SPX is trading around the daily upper band, which is at 2100 today and is rising at about ten to fifteen handles per day. I'm looking for decent resistance today in the 2099/00 ES area, which is in the 2106/7 SPX area. On a strong break over that level we could see a short squeeze higher, and over 2116 SPX we would most likely see a retest of the 2134 high not long after. Trade safe.

One More Heave

I said to somebody last week that topping processes would often last until you were completely bored with them, and then they'd run on a bit longer, and this topping process has been a good case in point.

I was saying on Friday that the ideal high would be just a little higher and that was very much on my mind as SPX was retracing a bit on Friday and retracing further on ES overnight. Stan was looking for a backtest to broken resistance in the 2056-8 area, and I'd been thinking we'd see that in trading hours but we saw that last night instead. That support held, the sell signals on the ES, NQ and TF charts all made target or very close (TF), and 60min buy signals fixed on both ES and NQ, which is why I was talking about a likely run to a marginal new high on twitter before the open.

SPX obviously retraced less than ES but the SPX 60min RSI 5 sell signal from Friday morning made target at the low on Friday. Key support is at the 50 hour MA in the 2064 area, and that was of course the equivalent to the ES area that held overnight. SPX 60min chart:

On the daily chart main trendline resistance is in the 2090-2 area and the HOD as I write is now at 2090.33. The test of that target area has now started. The daily upper band is at 2091.21 at the time of writing. SPX daily chart:

The ES chart below is the one I posted for theartofchart.net subscribers last night. With the retracement overnight the 60min sell signal made target and a 60min buy signal fixed after the overnight low. Both that 60min buy signal and the one on NQ have now made target as I've been writing. ES Jun 60min chart:

SPX is now testing the trendline target area and whether that target trendline holds has big implications. If it holds then the obvious target on SPX would be a test of rising support from the 2009 low, currently in the 1770 area. If it breaks we'll still most likely see a big retracement, but it would be unlikely to threaten the 1810 low.

A Storm of Sell Signals

I mentioned yesterday morning that there were a lot of strong sell signals fixed on various equity instruments and timeframes, and quite a few more fixed yesterday. At the close yesterday the roll call of fixed sell signals on SPX, NDX and RUT were as follows:

• SPX - daily RSI 5_NYMO, 60min RSI 5, 15min RSI 14
• NDX - daily RSI 14 and RSI 5, 60min RSI 14 and RSI 5, 15min RSI 14
• RUT - daily RSI 14 and RSI 5, 60min RSI 14 and RSI 5, 15min RSI 14

More are brewing, notably the SPX daily RSI 14, and some weekly sell signals depending on the close today. On the futures charts I only really watch the 60min RSI 14 signals, and ES and NQ were fixed before the close yesterday, with a TF 60min sell signal that then fixed overnight. 

I can't recall ever seeing this much RSI divergence at any market inflection point before, though I've only been watching really closely for a few years and no doubt it has happened before at some point. Does this storm of RSI sell signals mean that equities MUST turn here? Obviously not, as there are no certainties in market direction, ever, but it does mean that the 80/20 odds that I was giving yesterday in favor of a bearish resolution here may well be giving the bulls too much credit. We'll see. 

Apologies for the late post today, and obviously I'm running very late so I'm going to use the bonus charts that I posted this morning for subscribers at theartofchart.net. I like to do this every so often just to give regular updates on the forex, energy, precious metals & bonds that I do at theartofchart.net nowadays, and obviously to make readers aware that if they should want to see these from me every morning, then all they need to do is subscribe to the Daily Video Update Service there. We're redoing the website at the moment, and after we've finished doing that we are planning to increase the price of this service, but as long as the subscription is continuous no price rise will ever be applied to existing subscribers, so if you are thinking of subscribing I'd suggest doing it sooner rather than later. 

See if you can guess my first trade today from the charts below:-)

ES Jun 60min chart:

NQ Jun 60min chart:

TF Jun 60min chart:

DX Jun 60min chart:

CL May 60min chart:

GC Apr 60min chart:

ZB Jun 60min chart:

In terms of the major resistance trendlines that are the obvious targets for this move on RUT and SPX, RUT hit the ideal target at the high yesterday but SPX was three to five points short. Does that matter? Yes it does. As long as that target is not hit it is unfinished business above, and that could have a big impact on what happens after any reversal here, though I think it looks very possible that we'll see some retracement today and then a slightly higher high on SPX early next week (but probably not on RUT) to reach that target. I posted a chart of the full setup on twitter yesterday afternoon and I'd suggest looking at that chart, which you can find in my twitter feed here.

Today is a cycle trend day so that would usually have 70% odds of being a directional day dominated by either the bulls or the bears. I'm wondering whether opex today skews those odds though. We'll see.

Did you guess long ZB from the charts? If so then that's absolutely right. The double bottom has now broken up and is now retesting broken double bottom resistance. Nice setup. Everyone have a great weekend. :-)

Testing Major Resistance With Sell Signals Everywhere

As expected all three of SPX, NDX and RUT retested the highs yesterday and made marginal new highs. RUT has now made the ideal target area, though if possible I'd like to see a marginal new high in RTH this morning two handles higher. This is a major resistance test with big implications if we should see a break through it. RUT daily chart:

SPX was a little more shy of trendline resistance yesterday. I'd ideally like to see a new high of seven handles or so this morning to deliver the ideal test of major resistance. SPX daily chart:

ES has already made a marginal new high in globex and a 60min sell signal fixed overnight. ES Jun 60min chart:

All three indices have been compressing for a while and an expansion is likely to be starting here. In practical terms that means that there is a high probability that a daily upper or lower band ride on is SPX starting here, and SPX closed over the upper band yesterday of course. If resistance in the 2090-2 SPX area breaks then we may well see a daily upper band ride into new all time highs over the next few days. If it holds then we may well see a daily lower band ride instead. I'm expecting resistance to hold and would give 80/20 odds in favor of the bears on this setup.

There are sell signals everywhere on the daily charts except on the SPX daily RSI 14, though a sell signal is brewing there now too, and that would fix on a rejection here. ES and NQ had 60min sell signals fixed overnight and TF would start a 60min sell signal brewing on a marginal higher high today. I rarely get to see an RSI signal setup that is this unanimously directional. The 'Crazytown' overbought level is at 2077 ES this morning (2084/5 SPX area) and ideally I'm looking for an AM high in the 2090-2 SPX and 1132/3 RUT areas and then a hard fail. We'll see how that goes.

Crazytown Take #2

A few days ago, when ES made the current rally high, ES hit the Crazytown level that I mention from time to time as an extreme overbought level relative to the 45 day pivot. That level is at 2068.5 today and has already been hit overnight. I'm looking for a stronger push into the Crazytown area today and ideally a hit of declining resistance from the 2134 high on SPX, currently in the 2090-2 area and that is approximately in the 2082-5 ES area. I'm expecting that hit, if seen today or possibly tomorrow morning, to be the rally high, at least for a strong retracement.

Obviously SPX has taken the bullish option that I was favoring yesterday morning and is likely to at least retest the current rally high at 2075 today. That move is a break up from a bull flag as I mentioned yesterday morning and is also, though less definitely, a break up from a bullish triangle. If the triangle is right then I'd expect to see a decent backtest into an AM low this morning and then a thrust up into the new rally high, most likely in RTH today. SPX 60min chart:

ES playing out as I laid out yesterday morning. No negative divergence yet on the 60min RSI but expecting to see that develop later. ES Jun 60min chart:

The upside targets for SPX on a higher high over 2075 are the IHS target at 2082 and declining resistance from the current all time high at 2134. That is my preferred target and if we see a hit and reversal there then that would open up a downside target in the 1770 area and, counter-intuitively, be strong confirmation that SPX is not in a bear market, as that level is the resistance trendline on a bigger picture bull flag. Watching with great interest. SPX daily chart:

If this isn't a triangle break up on the SPX 60min chart, and Wave E was very small, then SPX may well just head straight to target without the AM low first. That would be much less fun to trade but might happen anyway. My ideal high targets today are in the 2090-2 area on SPX and the 1134 area on RUT. A hit of those areas would be an interesting short for potentially a 300 handle decline (on SPX) from there. If that level breaks on SPX particularly that would invite a test of the 2134 high. I'm not expecting that at all but as ever, price can always go the other way.

Groundhog Day ... um .... Again?

I'm running late today so I'm using the ES, NQ and TF bonus charts that I posted for theartofchart.net subscribers this morning.

Over the last few days there have been a number of significant looking breaks in either direction but no break has delivered much. On the daily chart the bollinger bands are compressing and when that compression breaks, we are going to see a significant move in the expansion that follows, probably to the downside, but as ever there's only one way to find out for sure. :-) A downward resolution does not preclude marginal new highs before that plays out.

In the short term there was a battle over the ES weekly pivot at 2046.20 (2053/4) that lasted much of yesterday and was firmly resolved in favor of the bears in the last hour. Will this victory be as shortlived as the others have been recently? Very possibly yes, and I'm still thinking that the setup here favors the bulls 60/40, even though unlike yesterday ES is opening below the weekly pivot.

On ES the H&S is now fully formed and tested the neckline overnight, though it failed to sustain trade below it. On the bull side there is now a better looking falling channel that on any reasonable read is an obvious bull flag. Which scenario is the stronger here? Well I see a lot of H&S patterns fail at the neckline test and not that many perfect bull flag channels that break down. The lean on this pattern setup is bullish. ES Jun 60min chart:

There's a similar story on NQ where the upsloping H&S that I was looking at yesterday morning has been replaced with a flat neckline H&S where NQ would now be forming the right shoulder;. On the bull side though, yesterday's indeterminate setup has now resolved into a clear falling wedge that in this context would also be a clear bull flag. Again I see a lot of possible H&S patterns fail at this stage, but not that many clear bull flag falling wedges that break down. Jun 60min chart:

The setup on TF looks more bullish than it really is but nonetheless leans bullish. TF Jun 60min chart:

What the bears do have in their favor this morning is that ES is still under weekly pivot resistance at 2046.20 and SPX is still under 50 hour MA resistance at 2055. If they can maintain those as resistance this morning they have a decent shot today. If not then I'll be looking for a retest of the current rally highs on all three indices. Today is a cycle trend day so there are decent odds that whichever side wins the morning will win the day.

I forgot to add the link to the recording of Sunday's public Chart Chat on a version of this post yesterday morning so if you haven't seen that yet, you can see that here.

Daily Middle Band Support

On Thursday and Friday there was an impressive battle at daily middle band support on both SPX and RUT. At the close on Friday the bulls had still not conceded the daily middle band, and if that isn't going to break then the next obvious target would be the daily upper band currently in the 2076 area. On a move higher there are still open and obvious targets at the IHS target at 2082 and declining resistance from the 2015 high, currently in the 2090-2 area and a decent looking match with possible trendline resistance and the 200dma on RUT, currently both in the 1135 area. There are daily sell signals fixed across the board here, with both daily RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals fixed on both RUT and NDX, and a strong daily RSI 5 / NYMO sell signal on SPX, but a marginal new high wouldn't invalidate those sell signals, and are a real possibility here unless bears can break SPX and RUT below the daily middle bands on a daily closing basis. The SPX and RUT daily middle bands closed Friday at 2045 and 1095 respectively. SPX daily chart:

On the bear case here the bears broke below the important 50 hour MA (currently at 2057) and held it as resistance for the second half of last week. As long as that remains resistance then that is strong resistance overhead. If bulls can convert that back to support then that opens up the higher targets. There is a decent looking upsloping H&S that has formed with the neckline currently in the 2035 area and on a sustained break below there the H&S target would be in the 1985 area, not far above the 38.2% fib retracement of the rising wedge at 1974 and the possible H&S neckline in the 1969 area. SPX 60min chart:

On the bull case here the H&S has not broken down and may not break down, and the alternative pattern read on last week's action from the high is that a falling channel has been established that would be a likely bull flag on the bigger picture, and that on a break over flag resistance, currently at 2062.50, the first target on that flag would be a retest of the 2075 high and very possibly a marginal new high above there. SPX 15min chart:

Stan and I did a public chart chat last night and you can see the recording for that here. We were explaining there why we were favoring the marginal new high scenario there and we're still favoring that. I'd give the odds in favor of bull scenario here at about 60/40. The new ES weekly pivot at 2046 (2053/4 SPX) will be a key battleground today and whichever side can convert that into strong support/resistance will most likely dominate both today and tomorrow. The gap up this morning is favoring the bulls further as long as the opening gap doesn't fill.