Jack Chappell aka Springheel Jack - A Classical Trendline Chartist's View of Equities, Bonds, Forex and Commodities
- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE - This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
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SPX has made a possible short term high a couple of days ago, but needs to show us more on Tuesday than a retracement to test obvious support at the 50 hour MA, currently in the 2890 area. If that can be broken, and the open gap below it filled, then there is a decent shot here at seeing a retracement into rising support from the late June low, currently in the 2840 area, to confirm the rising wedge from there within the overall rising channel from the overall rising channel from the early May low.
This is the equity index section of my premarket video for this morning which talks more about the evolving setup here. Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ:
On the chart below I have drawn in an ideal path for SPX over the next few weeks into the significant high that we are expecting in late September / early October. This would be an ideal way to trade the next few weeks if it plays out this way. SPX 60min chart:
Some announcements today. We are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday 9th September running through the usual 35 to 40 instruments over a very wide range of markets and, if you'd like to attend, you can register for that on our September Free Webinars page.
We are also running another Trading Academy Boot Camp soon and that is starting Monday September 10th. The first two were very well received, and you can see testimonials from that as you scroll down on our testimonials page. It is also cheaper (and at least in our view better) than anything comparable on the market, and likely to be the last one we run this year. At the moment there are still places available and, if you're interested in attending, you can find out more and register for that on this page here.
I'm posting my full premarket video from this morning, as this is a very interesting area on most of the instruments covered, with significant reversals in progress on many of them. Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD:
In the short term we are looking for a short term high here and reversal into a low next week before another leg up. As I was saying on the video before the open, ideally that would set up with a modest retracement, as we have since seen so far today, then a retest of the current high to set up negative divergence on the hourly chart. Ideally that would happen today, and SPX would be retracing for the rest of the week. We'll see how that goes. If that doesn't happen I do have a possible alternate target in the 2925-30 area but that's the lower probability option.
RUT often leads on minor and major reversals, and on the chart below an hourly RSI 14 sell signal has already fixed. RUT 60min chart:
Some announcements today. We are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday 9th September running through the usual 35 to 40 instruments over a very wide range of markets and, if you'd like to attend, you can register for that on our September Free Webinars page.
We are also running another Trading Academy Boot Camp soon and that is starting Monday September 10th. The first two were very well received, and you can see testimonials from that as you scroll down on our testimonials page. It is also cheaper (and at least in our view better) than anything comparable on the market, and likely to be the last one we run this year. At the moment there are still places available and, if you're interested in attending, you can find out more and register for that on this page here.
That was an unsatisfyingly fast low last week with none of the usual bottoming signals, but it was a higher low against the early August low, and the break under the daily middle band on Wednesday was firmly rejected on Thursday and confirmed on Friday, with a decent quality bull flag channel on ES breaking up on Friday, so that flag has a minimum target at a retest of the previous high at 2863.43 SPX, and that puts SPX within easy striking distance of the all time high at 2872.87.
Main support on SPX is at the daily middle band now at 2835, supported by the 50 hour MA now at 2837, and the new ES weekly pivot at 2837.
Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD:
Apart from the possible rising wedge resistance on ES that I look at in the video, the possible rising wedge resistance now at 2879 SPX, and possible channel resistance would now by slightly over 2900. SPX 60min chart:
We are looking for a possible backtest of the 2780 area after the next high, leaning towards a 2880 area target for that. We are looking for a more significant high in September/October that should respect main trendline resistance now in the 2950-70 area.
Stan and Suz are doing a webinar on Thursday on Options For Income, our options premium capture service, which has been doing very well, and if you'd like to attend you can register for that on our August Free Webinars page.
I was saying on my twitter yesterday that if ES could break and convert to support weekly pivot at 2842 then ES/SPX could head up directly, but in the absence of that a test of 2800 area support was likely, and well, here we are. So what now?
Well there is decent established support in this area down to 2793 on ES, and that may hold. A break slightly lower gives a test of the monthly pivot at 2788. A break and conversion of monthly pivot to resistance would be a significant bearish break of a kind that we haven't yet seen in this retracement. ES Sep 60min chart:
Not far under the ES monthly pivot test is a very important trendline at current main rising channel support now in the 2770-5 area. A test and reversal there would mean that this rising channel has evolved into a rising wedge. A sustained break below would open more downside. SPX 60min chart:
I have to be out most of the rest of RTH today but I'll be watching with interest from my phone. If we find a low today then I'd note that Thursday and Friday this week are both cycle trend days, so we could see a strongly directional days tomorrow and/or Friday.
An unsettled open on ES last night with more rumblings from Turkey and lower lows on ES and NQ. I was asked before the open whether I thought there was a serious risk of the wheels coming off on SPX with a 5% or so retracement directly from here, and I replied that I thought that the risk was low, though possible as always.
There are four important support levels below, all shown on the SPX 60min chart. The first is the short term rising wedge support trendline at Friday's low, supported by the daily middle band. As long as that holds the obvious next target is wedge resistance in the 2870 area. If that should break then there is strong established support in the 2800 area, which would also be the 38.2% retracement of the rising wedge. If 2800 was to break that could be a significant bearish break, but there would still be main channel support, currently in the 2765 area.
On the upside resistance is at the the ES weekly pivot at 2842 and the 50 hour MA on SPX, currently at 2845 and resistance so far both on Friday and today, then the open gap from 2853.58 that would need to be filled. After that the way would be clear for SPX to head back to short term wedge resistance and a likely test of the all time high at 2872.87.
Leaning long into that ATH retest until demonstrated otherwise.
We did our monthly public Chart Chat yesterday, and the recording for that is posted on our August Free Webinars page. We are doing our monthly free public FAANG & Key Sectors webinar after the close on Thursday, and if you'd like to see that, you can register on the same page.
ES has been compressing for a couple of days now, forming a likely bull flag for the next leg higher. That may have made a low overnight or may have a bit lower to go before the next leg up begins. A break and conversion to support of the current short term high at 2863.75 ES should clear the path to the all time high retest. Partial Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ:
On SPX main channel resistance is now in the 2888 area and may be the target for the next leg up, after which we expect to see a decent retracement with an obvious target at a test of main channel support, currently in the 2765 area but obviously rising.
After that we might see a test of longer term trendline resistance on SPX in the 2950-3000 area to make a more serious high. SPX 60min chart:
Some announcements today. We are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday running through the usual 35 to 40 instruments over a very wide range of markets and, if you'd like to attend, you can register for that on our August Free Webinars page. We are also running another Trading Academy Boot Camp soon and that is starting September 4th. The first two were very well received and you can see testimonials from that as you scroll down on our testimonials page. If you're interested in attending you can find out more and register for that on this page here.
In the very short term though we are doing a free public webinar after the close tonight looking at trades on our directional options service Paragon Options, currently up about 12% after just under seven weeks so well on course for the minimum 60% per annum return that we are looking for. If you'd like to attend, you can also register for that on our August Free Webinars page.
I am back from holiday and normal updates are resuming today.
The retracement last week was larger than expected and established a larger rising channel from the 2691.99 low that is part of the larger overall rising channel from 2594.62. Shorter term channel support is now in the 2803 area, and I'm looking in the video below at a possible short term retracement to backtest the new weekly pivot at 2824 ES / 2825.5 SPX, support by the 50 hour MA currently at 2823 SPX. Ideally we would test and reverse there to start the main move to the retest of the all time high.
Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD:
On the upside you can see that the two channel resistance trendlines will intersect in the 2890s later this week. That is a possible price and time target for this move. SPX 60min chart:
A couple of announcements today. We are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday running through the usual 35 to 40 instruments over a very wide range of markets and, if you'd like to attend, you can register for that on our August Free Webinars page. We are also running another Trading Academy Boot Camp soon and that is starting September 4th. The first two were very well received and you can see testimonials from that as you scroll down on our testimonials page. If you're interested in attending you can find out more and register for that on this page here.
