Three Crypto Bulls

In the conclusion to my post yesterday I said:

‘So what’s the takeaway here? Well before the open this morning I was talking about the decent looking possible double bottoms on Bitcoin, Solana, SPX and DIA. Those have broken up on Bitcoin and Solana, and the ones on SPX and DIA are heading that way at speed at the moment. We could see a strong rally across the board today and, subject to the huge news week this week, that could take all of these back to last week’s highs. ‘

So here we are, they all broke up and made target, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has made a new all time high, Solana (SOLUSD) has broken over bull flag resistance with a target at the retest of the 2024 high at 209.86, and even Ethereum (ETHUSD) had a decent day and broke back over the daily middle band with confidence.

There are likely three bull markets going on here and they are all at different stages, so I’m going to review those quickly.

Bitcoin is clearly Daddy Bull here, with a new all time high made earlier this year and again last night as the news filtered through that Trump was the likely election winner. How good will Trump be for Crypto? Well likely positive but I’m not sure it was really going to make much difference to Crypto whoever won the election on the bigger picture. On the smaller picture it has delivered a solid looking new break higher.

Whenever a high is retested a possible double top of whatever size is formed. The one formed here is large but I won’t be paying any real attention to it unless we see a hard reversal here which, unlike the very nice reversal setup I called last week, doesn’t seem that likely.

BTCUSD daily chart:

On the hourly chart I’ve been looking at the resistance trendline options and I have a couple of short term ones, one of which was hit overnight, but nothing serious to suggest that Bitcoin won’t be going higher soon.

BTCUSD 60min chart:

Solana is Mommy Bull here, with a reversal at main bull flag last week and then a clear break up through flag resistance last night. The bull flag target is at a retest of the 2024 high at 209.86, and after that I’m leaning strongly towards a run at the retest of the all time high at 259.95.

Bitcoin bottomed at 15480.69 in late 2022, and at the new all time high last night at 66793.64 it was up an impressive 331% from that low.

The late 2022 low on Solana was at 8.03, and at the high last night at 188.68 it was up 2250% from there. At the 2024 high at 209.66 it was up 2510%. To retest the all time high from last night’s high it just needs to go up another 37.78%. That doesn’t seem a stretch and I’m expecting to see that in the next few months.

SOLUSD daily chart:

The setup from the high last week on Solana was a clear double top which formed, broke down, and then failed into a retest of the prior high. A classic sequence. No obvious resistance trendline above but there is some short term negative divergence and a small double top that on a sustained back below 183 would look for the 177/8 area.

After that the bull flag target is at 209.86.

SOLUSD 60min chart

Baby Bull here is Ethereum, though that has been so hesitant over the last three months that I’m wondering whether it is still in a bull market at all.

Ethereum has larger issues, in that while it was touted as a big up and comer in past years, it is now struggling to seem relevant in a situation where Solana is much cheaper, faster and easier to make transactions.

The weekly middle band, currently at 2726, has been strong resistance since June. If Ethereum can break back over that and convert it to support then it may have a shot at a retest of the 2024 high at 4092.73.

Until then the move up from the August low is looking uncomfortably like a bear flag or triangle forming, and I’d be wary on the long side.

ETHUSD daily chart:

I have a short term resistance trendline on Ethereum that is currently in the 2690 area, and I’ll be watching that for resistance when it is reached.

ETHUSD 60min chart:

The break up last night was impressive and while we may well see some retracement here, I’m not expecting that move to be fully retraced and I’m expecting follow through to the upside soon.

I have a question for my readers today.

I’ve been charting Crypto for a few years now, and started doing morning webinars on it every day in about April this year. When I set up my Crypto substack in early August I continued them there and, as my brand of charting works really well on Crypto, I’m not aware of any other Crypto analyst that has called the moves and reversal on Crypto since April as well as I have.

My readership is still small though and word of mouth has not been working so far. I clearly need to do more to promote my work.

I’m considering taking a writing gig at a Crypto exchange or site to get access to a wider audience & I’d welcome suggestions for that. Equally there may be places that I should frequent and drop links daily to promote my work. All suggestions very welcome.

If you’d like to see more of these posts and the other Crypto videos and information I post, please subscribe for free to my Crypto substack.

I'm also to be found at Arion Partners, though as a student rather than as a teacher. I've been charting Crypto for some years now, but am learning to trade and invest in them directly, and Arion Partners are my guide around a space that might reasonably be compared to the Wild West in one of their rougher years. 

Binary Setup Here On Crypto

Solana (SOLUSD) is the pattern leader on Crypto here, so I’ll start with that today.

I was looking at the possible inflection point on Solana last week as it hit main bull flag resistance and reversed there, and so far that has been playing out in a way that is suggesting that we might see that possible big reversal that I was looking at.

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On the daily chart a daily weak RSI 14 sell signal has fixed, Solana has broken back below the daily middle band and backtested the 50dma, currently at 154.90, and resistance is at the daily middle band, currently at 167.15.

SOLUSD daily chart:

On the 15min chart Solana has broken the possible double top support I was looking at last week with a target in the 135-9 area, and that leaves us with a binary setup here where SOLUSD will likely either head down to that target or reject back up to retest the last high at 183.26.

In the short term I was looking in my premarket video this morning at the possible double bottom that formed yesterday on Solana that on a sustained break over double bottom resistance at 164.85 would look for the 172-5 area. As I write, that double bottom is breaking up and Solana is backtesting the daily middle band.

SOLUSD 15min chart:

On Bitcoin (BTCUSD) we have seen a break back under the daily middle band, currently at 68,740, though not with great confidence, and an attempt to break back over that today that may be successful.

BTCUSD daily chart:

On the 15min chart Bitcoin formed a small falling wedge that has broken up and a small double bottom has formed that on a sustained break back up over double bottom resistance at 69.5k, the double bottom target would be in the 71.5k to 72.2k area. Again, as I write, that double bottom has broken up.

BTCUSD 15min chart:

Not much to add on Ethereum (ETHUSD) here other than to say the obvious resistance is at the 50dma, currently at 2529, and the daily middle band at 2554/5.

Instead of an Ethereum chart I’ll repost an interesting looking chart from Quinten Francois on twitter noting that the last three presidential election all set Bitcoin price floors that have never subsequently been broken. That’s not necessarily significant, but it is interesting.

BTCUSD vs Presidential Elections 2012-20:

So what’s the takeaway here? Well before the open this morning I was talking about the decent looking possible double bottoms on Bitcoin, Solana, SPX and DIA. Those have broken up on Bitcoin and Solana, and the ones on SPX and DIA are heading that way at speed at the moment. We could see a strong rally across the board today and, subject to the huge news week this week, that could take all of these back to last week’s highs.

I would add that a lot of people have been building up the presidential election as Trump good for Crypto & Harris bad for Crypto. I personally don’t think that Trump would be particularly great for Crypto or that Harris would be bad. I think that either would likely be good, but if there is a strong perception that a Harris win would be bad for Crypto, then we might have a short term sharp decline coming this week if she wins.

If you’d like to see more of these posts and the other Crypto videos and information I post, please subscribe for free to my Crypto substack.

I'm also to be found at Arion Partners, though as a student rather than as a teacher. I've been charting Crypto for some years now, but am learning to trade and invest in them directly, and Arion Partners are my guide around a space that might reasonably be compared to the Wild West in one of their rougher years.