Hard Break Up On Crypto

Yesterday afternoon I sent a quick update post to all the subscribers at my Crypto SubStack to warn them that there was now a high quality bull flag setup on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) that on a break up would look for a target at a retest of the September high at 66.5k. I also noted that the hourly RSI 14 sell signal that had formed and fixed as Bitcoin was hitting flag resistance had reached the possible near miss target. I was thinking of circulating this more widely but SubStack was having issues yesterday afternoon, so I thought I’d just cover this in a post today.

This is the chart I posted yesterday.

BTCUSD 60min chart (yesterday afternoon):

This is how the chart looks at the time of writing, with the flag having broken up and got fairly close to the flag target. I’m expecting that target should likely hit in the next day or two. It is therefore too late now to warn anyone today but that does bring me to the bigger picture that I have also been looking at over the last few posts.

BTCUSD 60min chart:

On the bigger picture the overall setup is a likely much larger bull flag and the most bearish aspect of the Crypto charts when I was writing on Friday was that the daily middle bands were continuing to hold as resistance, though that has now changed.

Now the break above the daily middle bands has to hold for a couple of days for the daily middle band to convert to support, but so far this looks like a conviction break which on Bitcoin has also been a conviction break over the 200dma. On a move back over 66.5k, the obvious next big target would be larger bull flag resistance, currently in the 69k area.

BTCUSD daily chart:

On Ethereum (ETHUSD) there is no bull flag target, but the move today is a hard break over the 50dma and daily middle band. On a move higher the next big targets would be the 200dma, currently at 3045, and declining resistance from the 2024 high at 4092.73, currently in the 3720 area.

I would note that the obvious bigger picture patterns forming on here on Bitcoin and Solana (SOLUSD) are bull flags. That’s not as clear on Ethereum, which may have deeper issues and underperform both of the others in the longer term.

ETHUSD daily chart:

Solana has also broken back hard over the daily middle band and less so the 200dma, currently at 152.20. The obvious next target would be a retest of the September high at 161.73 and, above that, larger bull flag resistance now in the 185 area.

SOLUSD daily chart:

I was saying on Friday that on the bigger picture Crypto was likely setting up for another bull move. That move has likely now started, and if Bitcoin and Solana can break up from their overall bull flag setups, then those targets would then be a retest of the all time high on Bitcoin at 73.8k, and a retest of the 2024 high on Solana at 209.86.

Given the correlation between Crypto on equities, what does this suggest about prospects for equity markets? Well, nothing that could be interpreted as bearish.

If you’d like to see more of these posts and the other Crypto videos and information I post, please subscribe for free to my Crypto substack.

I'm also to be found at Arion Partners, though as a student rather than as a teacher. I've been charting Crypto for some years now, but am learning to trade and invest in them directly, and Arion Partners are my guide around a space that might reasonably be compared to the Wild West in one of their rougher years. 

Bitcoin Made Target And Reversed Hard

In my last post on Crypto I was looking at the overall setup on Crypto and the short term H&S patterns on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Solana (SOLUSD). Those short term setups are played out now (more details below) and we have been seeing strong rallies across the board which could be the start of a larger break up.

This is a match with what I am seeing on equities, which may be starting a general break up here though, as with Crypto, more needs to be done to the upside to deliver that break up.

Equities have been looking stronger than Crypto recently, so the first big step on the road on crypto is to see breaks and conversions to support of the daily middle bands. On Bitcoin the daily middle band is currently at 62,839, supported by the 200dma, currently at 63,451. A decent break over both that doesn’t reject back under the daily middle band the day or two after would be unambiguously bullish.

BTCUSD daily chart:

On Ethereum (ETHUSD) the daily middle band is currently at 2511, slightly over the 50dma, currently at 2480. A decent break over both that doesn’t reject back under the daily middle band the day or two after would be unambiguously bullish.

ETHUSD daily chart:

On Solana the daily middle band is currently at 146.79. A decent break above that doesn’t reject back under the daily middle band the day or two after would be unambiguously bullish.

SOLUSD daily chart:

In terms of those short term H&S patterns Bitcoin made the H&S target but didn’t quite make it to the ideal bull flag support trendline now in the 58,200 area. That trendline could be unfinished business below, but would stop being a possible target on a break over possible bull flag resistance currently in the 63,600 area.

BTCUSD 60min chart:

Solana didn’t make either H&S target, but the rally from the low has taken it back over the H&S right shoulder high, so that H&S has failed with a target back at a retest of the last short term high at 152.25. Slightly less short term declining resistance from the 161.73 high is now in the 147 area and is a decent match with the daily middle band.

SOLUSD 60min chart:

Equities are at a big inflection point here and Crypto will likely follow whichever way that breaks. If equities break into another modest leg down next week then we might see that on Crypto too, though I’d be leaning long on both afterwards. In terms of a decline next week, I am wondering whether Israel might retaliate against Iran over the weekend. Israel has been very close mouthed about what form that retaliation might take but they have been very clear that they are planning one. We’ll see.

In terms of the overall Crypto market Peter Brandt made a comment last night that was thought-provoking & you can see that here. I would note that there are only a couple of data points to base this observation on, but I do agree that continued sideways action would be a concern. I’m expecting Crypto to impress into Xmas and, if it doesn’t, then his observation is definitely something to bear in mind.

Everyone have a great weekend. :-)

If you’d like to see more of these posts and the other Crypto videos and information I post, please subscribe for free to my Crypto substack.

I'm also to be found at Arion Partners, though as a student rather than as a teacher. I've been charting Crypto for some years now, but am learning to trade and invest in them directly, and Arion Partners are my guide around a space that might reasonably be compared to the Wild West in one of their rougher years.