Crossing the line

I'm in two minds about market direction this morning. As I expected, ES has returned to the lower trendline of the large rising wedge formed since the low, and once there it can obviously bounce back up towards the top trendline, or break the wedge and start resolving down much further.

I therefore have two scenarios for ES, which become the same scenario next week, as we form what I am expecting to be the right shoulder of a bottoming IHS. Here's the first scenario where the lower trendline of the rising wedge breaks today, and ES falls to my next target in the 1050 - 1060 area:

On my second scenario, ES bounces back towards the top trendline of the rising wedge, and turns back either at the recent high, or the June high, both of which are possible necklines for the IHS that I think is forming. It then turns back down towards the 1050 - 1060 ES area to make the right shoulder of that IHS.

Resistance at 1104.5 ES could hold however, giving only a partial rise. I'm looking for an upswing target of 1.575 on GBPUSD and (less confidently) 1.314 on EURUSD, If they are hit before or as we hit 1104.5, then the chances are that we will go no higher:

For today's direction, the key is the strong support area at 1084.5 ES. If it breaks and we close an hour below it, then we are going with scenario 1 IMO. If it holds then we are going with scenario 2. I'm leaning towards scenario 2 slightly because EURUSD and GBPUSD have not yet made my upside targets for them, but it could easily go the other way.

I've mentioned before that I think we have bottomed for the summer, and the reason I think so is because of breaks down in USD and long treasuries, among other reasons, but the target of the large rising wedge is obviously for a full retracement of the rise since the low, though I'm not expecting to see that hit.

Instead I am assuming that the rising wedge will evolve into a rising channel, as they often do and from that I get my target of 1050 - 1060 ES, though the target would be 1045 ES if it was hit today. If that theoretical trendline breaks, and if the mid-July low is broken, then we will most likely see a return to and possibly beyond the lows, despite the many indicators suggesting that won't happen.

Hitting Turbulence

After the fast bleed up of the last few days I'm expecting to see a return to serious volatility during the next few days. I'm not sure of the direction, but looking at USD particularly I'm expecting that we may see some significant moves down, though longer term I'm still leaning firmly bullish on equities.

On the GBPUSD daily chart we can see that the top of the strong rising channel has almost been reached. I am expecting to see a return to the bottom of the channel once it is hit and I'm expecting to see a parallel move in EURUSD at the same time:

On the EURUSD daily chart we have nearly reached the next obvious resistance level, which is the last significant declining resistance trendline in the 1.315 area:

We've seen some recovery on ES overnight, but the broadening descending wedge I drew on the 60 min chart is unbroken and I am expecting it to hold for at least one more swing down. The target of the broken rising wedge is the important support level at 1084.5 ES:

 On the ES daily chart that 1084.5 target is the level of the lower trendline of a much larger rising wedge, if it is hit today. If that rising wedge should break downwards next week then I would expect it to develop, as they often do, into a rising channel and the target ,if hit at the end of next week, would be the lower trendline of that potential rising channel in the 1050 ES area, so we could see a retest of the mid-July lows:

I'm out all day today but I'm leaving some orders on. It should be an interesting day. :-)

Flight to Risk?

As I've been expecting for a few days now, thirty year treasuries have broken down through the strong rising support trendline that has supported the strong rally since the beginning of April:

More surprisingly, gold is threatening the lower trendline of the rising channel that has contained gold's rise for almost two years now. That trendline looks likely to break, but gold has hit an important support level, and has at least paused there for the moment:

I've been expecting the rising support trendline on long treasuries to break, and it is one of the last of the directional indicators that I watch to concede and turn green. We had a Dow Theory buy signal on Monday as well of course, and all I'm really still waiting for to complete the bullish picture is for the 13 & 34 EMAs on the SPX weekly to recross to change that bearish cross signal into a strong bullish cross signal. 

In the short term though, we may have seen an interim top on equities. ES broke down from the rising wedge of recent days yesterday and I've been watching to see if the rising wedge would turn out to be a diagonal slice of a previously unrevealed rising channel. The lower trendline of that theoretical rising channel was hit overnight and has held so far. If we see a break below 1108 ES today, then the rising wedge target is 1084.5 ES:

$NYMO has hit a overbought level that often precedes an equities retracement, which backs up the idea that SPX may have hit a short term peak here. The signals are mixed though, and there are some indications that we may need to go a little higher before putting in the next interim top:

The Dow Theory Buy Signal

Something very interesting happened yesterday, though few people seem to have noticed. The Dow closed above the highest close made in June, and the Transports index did the same. We therefore have a new Dow Theory Buy Signal, one of the most venerable, and reliable, of trend change confirmations in the indicator universe.

Richard Russell, writing before the close yesterday said:


'If they both close above their June highs, it will be particularly noteworthy, because simultaneous confirmations imply a special power.'

As far as I am concerned, that has all but killed what remained of the summer bear case, we are just waiting now for long treasuries to break support and for the 13/34 EMAs to cross back on the weekly chart. 30 year treasuries look as though they may well break support today:

I was researching a weekend post on the 13/34 EMA weekly cross the other day, and while the post is still on the drawing board, I was very struck by the points of comparison between the look of recent market action and the pullback in 1998 during the dotcom bubble. Here's the chart of 19991 to 2000 with the dotcom bubble highlighted in yellow and the comparable period in 1998 circled:

In 1998, as now, there was a sharp correction on SPX, from 1190 to 923, and there was a 13/34 EMA weekly cross that then recrossed within a few weeks for a strong buy signal. The SPX then rose more than 50% within two years to top out in early 2000.

What relevance does that comparison have now? Plenty. We are in another bubble now, the dotgov bubble if you will, and there is only one way that a bubble based on an orgy of government spending is likely to end, and that is with a bond crisis. That bond crisis is not going to be about bonds on economic also-rans like Greece, it will be centered on the US and the likelihood that the US will be able to repay the ever-escalating tidal wave of debt being generated now.

Until we get that crisis we are in an expanding bubble, and valuations could increase a lot from here.

In the very short term I'm expecting to see a peak and a pullback within a couple of days and I have a possible rising wedge on ES indicating back to a retest of 1084.5 ES:

If we should make it back to 1084.5 ES, I will be regarding that as a very good buying opportunity.

The management regrets ....

.... that the second showing of The Apocalypse planned for the summer may have to be postponed due lack of interest.

We broke 1099 SPX (and ES) on Friday and it seems clear that we are on the way to 1130 SPX to test the June high. We are trickling up slowly towards that target and we may well see it this week. Until we see that tested I'm not expecting to see any major breaks downward and it is more than likely that the strong support level at 1084.5 ES will hold.

I'm also switching my primary scenario to bullish now, as the evidence is piling up that we have already seen the low for 2010, and unless we see some strong evidence to the contrary, then I will be working on the assumption that the trend for the next few months at least will be up. I have a longer term view and rationale for that that I will be writing up and posting in the next few days. It has nothing to do with a genuine recovery or real economic health, and everything to do with our still being in another asset bubble that is likely to expand further before bursting.

In the short term I've been playing around with the angle of the rising channel on ES this morning and am happy that I now have it right despite the lack of a third touch on either side so far to exactly fix the angle of ascent:

As we've now seen a second touch of the upper channel trendline we would normally next see a touch of the lower trendline. We could see that today at a little under 1080 ES, but I would be surprised to see the strong support level at 1084.5 ES broken by much.

Copper too is trickling up towards the obvious short term target just over $326. As and when it reaches it we should see some retracement on copper and most likely on equities too:

Oil is not in a rising channel and I can't see a workable pattern either, but it has established a strong rising support trendline that I would be surprised to see broken in the near future. Support is at $76.75 as I write and rising gently:

One of the few strong indicators that the bear scenario for the summer might not be finished yet is on 30 year treasuries, which are still holding the strong rising support trendline from the breakout in April. I'm expecting this to break in the next few days, and after that happens, I'm expecting a retracement of much or all of the advance from 114:

The silence of the bears

That was an amazing recovery by the bulls yesterday and though 1099 wasn't broken, some very serious technical damage was done to the bear case for the summer, to the extent that I am on the verge of dumping my road map to 870 as my primary scenario.

Yesterday morning I described the indicators as mixed, but oil broke up yesterday, and AUDUSD broke up through a key resistance level , and SPX broke a key declining resistance level as well, so the indicators and levels that I watch are looking decidedly less mixed today.

Still on the bear side in my view apart from the main bear patterns are long bonds, the baltic dry index, and the 13/34 EMA weekly cross, as well as the still unbroken resistance levels at 1099 SPX (trading hours) and 1099 ES (after hours).

I've seen quite a few times an 'IHS' building on SPX posted by various chartists. It is an ugly and unlikely looking pattern to my eye and I haven't bothered to chart it here. Instead I've charted what I think is a far more likely candidate IHS building, with the neckline at 1130 SPX and the head still unfinished. The pattern would have a target at 1250 SPX:

That target fits well with the diamond bottom on SPX that Pug posted yesterday morning with a target at (ahem) 1250 SPX. That pattern broke up yesterday and Pug's excellent write-up on it is well worth a look here.

In the short term we have a clear rising channel on ES, though we need another hit of the lower trendline in order to firm up the exact angle of the rising channel. The channel is unlikely to carry us through 1099 ES today, though as I've marked on the chart below, it is possible, though not probable IMO, that the upper trendline of the rising channel is an IHS neckline, with a target in the 1130 area:

Of the key indicators and levels that remain bearish this point I am now expecting the July highs on ES and SPX to be broken, and though there is some resistance at the 200 SMA at 1113.16, the obvious next target is the June high at 1131.23 SPX.

If we reach 1131.23 SPX, then the 13/34 EMAs on the weekly chart, which crossed bearishly last week, may well recross bullishly, turning a fairly strong bear indicator into a very strong bullish indicator. Here's an SPX chart showing the last three crosses, including the last failed bear bear cross in 2006:

On long term treasuries there was a sharp pullback yesterday off Wednesday's high for the year, and we are within striking distance of the rising support trendline at 126'11. That may the the lower trendline of a rising wedge, and if so I have marked the wedge targets on a break:

As I mentioned, I am not expecting to see a break of 1099 ES today, though we could see a break of 1099 SPX. Unless there is a major bear breakout, I am expecting action to be confined within the ES rising channel I have posted, and if the lower trendline of that channel were to be reached today then we could see an intraday move to just under 1070 ES

I'm on a sort of working holiday for the next ten days or so, and I'll be trying to keep up my daily posts, but I may not manage it every day.

Show us the money!

Helicopter Ben provided a lot of excitement yesterday and as he spoke, there was a very impressive hourly candle downwards. There was a lot of talk on Monday of how the equity markets were rallying because if they fell, the Fed would embark on another round of quantitavive easing, but that seems to be asking a lot of a threat of action rather than the action itself.

As a matter of fact, I suspect that is exactly the way the summer will end, but I don't think that the Fed will do that until the markets have fallen a lot more than they have as yet, and I don't think the markets will rally until QE2 gets going for real. Ben will have to show us the money rather than just point towards his printing presses.

My rather sloppy declining channel on SPX was respected yesterday and looks likely to continue to be respected IMO. Some bulls have been talking about a big IHS pattern forming but the action over recent weeks makes a rather better downsloping H&S pattern:

On ES we've seen an impressive recovery overnight, which I'm very happy about, as I haven't finished building my short position for the next few weeks. The ES forecast that I posted yesterday is predicting chop with a downward trend for the next few days until the decline begins in earnest near July 28th, and I'll be selling this rip and others until then.

A very possible ES rising channel was broken overnight before the rise began and I have a candidate declining channel to replace it, which fits the sideways to down chop in the ES forecast pretty well. Resistance at 1084.5 is a possible high today if this rise gets that far:

Signals are as mixed as ever. Bonds made a new high for the year which is a strong bearish indicator for equities. Copper rose strongly which is a strong bullish indicator for equities. EURUSD retraced hard yesterday, but has not broken back through the broken wedge upper trendline, also leaving a significant question mark over direction.

Oil broke the recent declining channel yesterday, and is retesting the broken channel trendline as I write:

On the currency markets, GBPUSD is still within the rising channel of recent weeks:

CADUSD has formed a triangle since the top in April which is compressing to a point. For obvious reasons I am expecting this to resolve down, but I hate trading triangles as  they frequently break one way before resolving in the other:

AUDUSD has been testing the strong resistance level at 88.565 again overnight, and as I write has broken up through it. That is looking very bullish as you can see from the chart:

Signals are still very mixed here but I'm still leaning strongly towards the bear side on balance. I would be concerned to see a break of 1090 ES in the next few days, though I'd be happy enough to see an intraday spike to fill the open gap at 1093 ES and turn back there. Key resistance remains at 1099 ES, and a break of that would be a strong signal to get out of shorts IMO, while we saw whether the June high would hold.

The ES Forecast

I've been on a roll recently. I forecast the low near 1000 & predicted a likely rally to the 1070 - 1090 ES area. Once there I called 1099 as the likely rally top and this week I predicted on Monday morning that we'd most likely start the week with two days of rally with a likely target at 1084.5. Not bad going, though I'm not expecting to match that performance all the time of course.

For the low target I was using a rough declining channel on SPX, for last week's high a rising channel from that low, and yesterday's high has been a key support / resistance level on SPX for quite a while now.

My main tool for assessing likely immediate market direction was Alex Grant's excellent ES forecast, which he sends to his subscribers by email for a very reasonable $30 per month. I've been checking it regularly since he warned his bearish blogger friends last year that the ES forecast was predicting a sharp rise off last July's low lasting for several months. Alex has given me permission to publish his current daily forecast here and so here it is:

The forecast is a mechanical forecast using Alex's proprietary indicators, and reverses sometimes, so that it then does the opposite of what the forecast predicts, but as a tool for assessing likely market direction I rank it very highly, as I know that there is no such thing as an infallible crystal ball for market trading, and if there was, I wouldn't be expecting to get access for $30 per month. The targets given on the forecast are also very rough, so I tend to use my own channels, patterns and support / resistance levels to call these.

If you're interested in subscribing yourself the link is here.

As you can see the ES forecast is now forecasting a strong bearish tilt for the next few weeks taking us into the 900s, which as long as it doesn't reverse direction of course, gives us the likely timeframe to play out the bear scenario if it is going to play out.

That fits my overall bear scenario on the SPX daily in which we are back at the top of the main SPX declining channel:

This gives a model short entry here in my view, with potential downside here of 220 ES/SPX, and a stop at 1101 ES as that would be a break above my SPX declining channel, and would also deliver the bulls their higher high to go with their higher low, though only a break of the June high would finish off the summer bear case altogether in my view.

As for today you can see that the ES forecast is projecting sideways to down over the next few days, and we may fill intraday the open gap at 1093 ES. I had a broadening bottom on ES yesterday that broke up with a target of 1103 ES, but only 59% of these make target, and I'm not expecting to see last week's high broken:

That isn't to say that it won't be broken of course, the risk/reward is very good for a short entry here with ES at 1087 at the time of writing, but the bulls are still in with a good chance and the indicators I watch are very mixed on market direction at best.

'Dr Copper' has a scarily bullish chart, and I was disturbed to see that break up through resistance this morning. Here's my take on that:

Recent action in long term bonds is solidly (equity) bearish of course, but EURUSD up from my broadening descending wedge last week and has't reached my obvious next target near 1.32. It is retracing at the moment, but that may just be a retest of thebroken wedge upper trendline near 1.27:

Oil and CADUSD have also had bullish breaks up this morning and AUDUSD is testing a key resistance level. The bulls are still in with a very real chance here, but I'm not expecting last week's high at 1099 ES to be broken, and until it is, I'm expecting us to fall hard from here over the next few weeks.

If not, we should know very soon and I'd be out or considering exit strategies on all shorts at 1101 ES.

I was expecting an up day today but .....

IBM missed last night and it looks like we'll see a big gap down this morning after support at 1059 ES was broken with confidence overnight. Gaps out of the previous day's range tend to keep running in the direction of the gap, so if ES is below 1056.5 ES at the open, then the gap fill will be a risky play today.

ES hasn't formed anything in the way of a usable channel or pattern since the break down last Friday but I've marked in some support and resistance levels on the chart:

Gold had a bad day yesterday, breaking the lower of my two short term support trendlines and is now approaching a lower trendline of the rising channel from late 2008. It may be that this longstanding channel is about to break downwards, but until it does this looks like an interesting long opportunity:

Another longstanding channel is the CADUSD rising channel from early 2009. CADUSD was alone among the major USD currency pairs in not breaking major support during the big USD move up. Now that USD has broken rising trendline support, I'd be surprised to see CADUSD break down too:

Last Orders

Just a quick post today as I'm very busy. 

It was a nail-biting top but SPX topped and turned where it was expected to on this chart and channel that I posted at the recent low at 1010. The bear scenario  for the summer is still therefore my primary scenario with an expected interim bottom at 870 within eight weeks:

Looking at the recent top more closely on the SPX daily chart, as well as this rather sloppy looking channel, there are a couple of other things to note.

Firstly a sharply downsloping head and shoulders pattern is forming, which is yet another pattern indicating into the high 800s in the event that the neckline is broken and the pattern confirms. The main thing to look for on H&S patterns with sloping necklines is that the shoulders should nonetheless be of roughly equal height. That is definitely the case on this pattern, so I am adding it to the even larger main bearish patterns on SPX at the moment that are indicating towards the same target.

Secondly both RSI and MACD have formed clear support and resistance trendlines that signalled the recent top, and are worth keeping an eye as they may well signal the highs and lows over the next few weeks.

In the short term, Friday was a trend down day and we would normally expect to see two to five days of retracement after a trend day. I'm expecting two, and my target for the retracement is the strong range resistance level at 1084.5 ES. It may be that we only reach the resistance level at 1074 though.

On the ES 10min chart a short term rising support trendline has been established since Friday's low, and if it holds then the range support level at 1064 should hold. If it breaks I'm expecting to see strong support at 1054.5:

If the bear scenario for the summer plays out as I expect, then the next two days will most likely be the last really good opportunity to short it. I'm expecting to see a retracement to 1085 SPX and if so, then a short from there has 215 handles of potential downside, while a rise of only twenty points from there to above the recent high would signal that the bear scenario was in trouble, and would therefore be a good place to put stops.

That's a risk reward ratio of more than 1 to 10, and I'll be taking full advantage of that

Pinned at 1100 SPX for Opex?

When I first drew the rising channel on ES a week ago it was tentative, the last hit of the lower channel trendline was at 1016 and ES traded only in the top half of the channel after 1037. This week though ES has touched the top of the channel and then fallen to bounce at the bottom of it, so the channel has been thoroughly confirmed now, and until ES breaks down from it, the short term trend remains up, and this is a wide enough channel that we could rise a lot further within it. I am long ES until we see that channel break with conviction.

That said, since we hit the top of the rising channel at 1099 we may have been forming a right-angled and descending broadening formation, and if that continues to form, the next move down will break the lower trendline of the channel. If so, I would expect to see another high made near 1099 beforehand.

We are going to break out of the current range, one way or the other, before the open on Monday. As resistance we have 1099, tested three times and unbroken so far, and as support we have the lower trendline of the rising channel, currently at 1087 and rising at ten points per day, so by Monday's open the current trading range will have compressed almost to zero, and we will have seen a break one way or the other.

We have had a strong run up to here, on on the SPX daily candles at least, without any significant declines on daily closes. While 1099 ES remains unbroken, it may yet hold as an interim top, and there are some divergences to suggest that this rally may yet fail here.

USD broke key support yesterday, and to my eye the USD rally now appears to be over, but though I was expecting that 30 year treasuries would fall through rising support as well, they have instead bounced strongly after hitting it. That is strange to say the least, and if this equities rally goes up much further then that must reverse IMO:

The Vix has been rising for the last three days, and that is a divergence that we saw before both the January and April tops:

I use the Baltic Dry Index as a loose indicator of the health of the world economy and it looking very sick at the moment. That might just be because all the ships ordered in 2007 and early 2008 are been delivered and are depressing shipping rates of course, but it is still striking to see the BDI only just above the March 2009 low:

EWI posted, and TK reposted an interesting nine day turn cycle that has been important on SPX over the last three months. We are on day nine of the current cycle, though as CC Rider pointed out the other day, the intraday low of the last cycle was actually on day eight:

I'm expecting that SPX may well be pinned at 1100 SPX for opex. We may have to wait until after the weekend for anything really interesting to happen.

USD breaks support

USD broke support and down from the broadening ascending wedge overnight, which is very bad news indeed for the bear case this summer, and badly undermines the case for an ES top at 1099 reached in overnight trading on both of the last two nights.

That's not to say that SPX can't be in a wave down while USD is also in a wave down, after all SPX was in a wave up from December to April while USD was also in a wave up, but the best aid for a big move down in equities this summer would have been a strong wave up in USD taking it over 90, and that now looks very unlikely to happen. 

mmTesla was saying last night that trendlines should be drawn with crayon rather than pencil, and that there has to be some allowance for slight overshoots, and he's right, but as we stand the USD rally is probably over, and a break below 83 on DX would confirm that for me.

The mirror image wedge on EURUSD has broken resistance. On the break this wedge has a conservative target of 1.46 and three of the last four big wedges on EURUSD played out to target:

GBPUSD broke up from the declining channel since last October and the upper trendline was also declining resistance from July 2008, so that is a very bullish break indeed:

Strangely, 30 year treasuries have gone entirely the other way, with a big move up from support yesterday and a bullish engulfing daily candlestick. I no longer trust this move though because treasuries are strongly linked to USD. It is no accident that the big move up in treasuries this year has coincided with the USD rally:

On ES there was a move up last night to the previous nights high at 1099 and we seem to be forming a rectangle within the ES rising channel. Thanks to dreadwin for pointing this out on the SPX 15min chart yesterday and it has since also appeared on ES. Rectangles break upwards 68% of the time and the target for this one is 1113.5 ES.

While forming this rectangle after hitting the top of the rising channel at 1099, ES has moved below the centre line of the rising channel for the first time since passing 1040. I am now expecting a hit of the lower trendline of the channel before the rectangle is broken, and that would most likely be tomorrow near 1085. Until the lower trendline of the channel is hit, I'm expecting 1099 to be solid resistance and 1084.5 to be solid support.

Directional lines in the sand

Intel beat earnings expectations massively last night, prompting some flashbacks to the bear wipe-out last July and wails of how it is happening all over again, and that may be right, but it isn't demonstrated yet, and there are more earnings than Intel's to come in the next few days. A quick look around us tells us that we are unlikely to see record earnings all round this year.

The silliest comment that I saw was that technical analysis was no longer relevant to this market, which is garbage. Even if the SPX rises to new highs in the next two years, which seems unlikely, there will still be important trendlines, channels, patterns and indicators to light the way and supply good trading entries and exits. Only fools would think otherwise.

Back on planet earth ES reached rising trendline resistance at 1098.75 after the Intel announcement, and has since fallen back to 1090.5. I have an immediate target of the centre trendline in my ES rising channel in the 1086 to 1089 area depending on when it is reached:

On the bigger picture the best indication that this rally was the start of a new bull move would be the main indices breaking above the June highs, though most have now broken declining resistance from the April top, including ES which broke it yesterday at 1094.5 ES, albeit that hasn't been broken on a daily basis yet. There are some other indicators to consider too though, and they are the reason that I was expecting this rally, if it is a rally, to fail at yesterday's high. I have serious doubts about that now as this move up has looked so impulsive, but let's review them again.

The key one is USD. USD and the main component of the USD index, EURUSD have been in mirror image wedges. Here's the broadening descending wedge on EURUSD which has not quite reached target, as the USD one has equally fallen slightly short:

EURUSD has a history of forming wedges on big moves, and when broken, they generally play out to target. It is very important for the bear case that these wedges don't break, as a bear move down against the tide of a falling dollar would not be easy.

The second key indicator that I am watching is 30 year treasuries. There we have a strong rising trendline since April that was tested yesterday and is still intact and it will help the bear case if that remains the case:

On oil I've been considering whether we have a rising channel or a broken rising wedge. The broken lower trendline of the wedge has been retested hard yesterday and has not broken, which supports the idea that it is a wedge. If so, we can expect a move soon below $70:

Of the USD currency pairs GBPUSD has now reached my target at the upper trendline of a declining channel from last October. I am expecting it to turn down here to a target under 1.40 but if it doesn't reverse, that will be a major bullish breakout, strengthened by the fact that the upper declining channel trendline goes back to July 2008:

I posted a possible IHS on AUDUSD yesterday and I am watching that very carefully, as a serious break up over the June highs would suggest a target of 92 to me, and most likely a return to the upper trendline of the larger broadening formation at 94. I can't see that happening really unless the recent equities low is to hold for several months at least. The June high held as resistance yesterday and I'll be keeping an eye on that today:

I still think we may have seen a major interim high on ES yesterday, though I am aware that is very much a minority view at the moment. If so, we will most likely consolidate that top over the rest of the week before the main bear event of the year begins.

If not, USD and bonds will break downwards and I'll outline my alternate bull scenario with a target at 1400 SPX, but we're not yet at the point where that needs to be seriously considered.