Well That Escalated Quickly

In my post on Tuesday 4th August I was looking at the ambiguous setup on US indices and the Nikkei after the strong rally into the beginning of August, noting the three good quality topping patterns that were still intact on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), QQQ and Nikkei. Since then the Nikkei pattern has failed with a target at a retest of the all time high.

I also noted that SPX was close to the daily 3sd upper band, and said that I was looking for a short term consolidation of a week or so, to allow time for the daily middle bands to go higher, and for the daily outer bands to expand, opening up further possible upside. We have since seen that consolidation last for four weeks so far, the daily middle bands turned up, and the outer bands expanded, but then contracted again before the lower bands were hit again this week.

In my last post on Wednesday I was looking at the case for making a short term low and perhaps retesting some all time highs. I was looking for a rally, then a low retest, and then ideally retesting the all time high in a three day strongly bullish leaning series of days Wednesday to Friday next week.

So far that has been going faster than I expected and the odds of a low retest have dropped. On the SPX the very nice bull flag channel I was looking at on Wednesday SPX returned to flag resistance and broke it slightly at yesterday’s high. That’s not encouraging for a low retest and and is suggesting a strong break up towards a retest of the all time high in the near future.

SPX 15min chart:

On the daily chart SPX broke back with conviction over the daily middle band yesterday. This might fail, and if it is going to fail that would likely be today or perhaps Tuesday. Another close above today would confirm the break.

SPX daily chart:

On the daily chart DIA broke back with conviction over the daily middle band yesterday. This might fail, and if it is going to fail that would likely be today or Tuesday. Another close above today would confirm the break.

SPX and DIA were the star performers yesterday and QQQ was significantly weaker, though it did manage to close at resistance on the daily middle band. Considered with the breaks above on SPX and DIA, the odds are decent that we will see a break back above soon.

QQQ daily chart:

Bringing up the rear on the US indices was IWM, struggling to rally and not managing to get anywhere close to a daily middle band retest. This is the US index traditionally most affected by rising interest rates of course and led the way down on this retracement.

IWM daily chart:

Lastly on the Philadelphia Semiconductors Index (SOX) there has barely been a rally, underlying the the weakness in Tech here and with a strong H&S target in the 9150 area still open.

SOX daily chart:

If we are going to see some high retests and then a larger retrace as the SOX chart is suggesting, then I’d note that we already have decent topping patterns that have already broken down on QQQ and SOX, and that a good quality double top has already formed on IWM. The two indices that look most in need of high retests to set up topping patterns are SPX and DIA, which are the two indices that look most likely to see those all time high retests next week. This may be a solid overall topping setup forming.

In the short term the historical stats lean neutral today and Tuesday, and then significantly bullish Wednesday through Friday next week. That would be an ideal window to see those high retests. The odds to retesting this week’s low directly don’t look great, though we may see some retracement today before likely heading to those high retests.

What could change that outlook? Hard breaks back below the daily middle bands today on SPX and DIA. Everyone have a great weekend. :-)

If you like my analysis and would like to see more, please take a free subscription at my chartingthemarkets substack, where I publish these posts first. I also do a premarket video every day on equity indices, bonds, currencies, energies, precious commodities and other commodities at 8.45am EST, but only for paying subscribers. Other places to find me are my page on the platform previously known as twitter, and my YouTube channel.

The Air Is Feeling Thick Here

In my post on Tuesday 4th August I was looking at the ambiguous setup on US indices and the Nikkei after the strong rally into the beginning of August, noting the three good quality topping patterns that were still intact on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), QQQ and Nikkei. Since then the Nikkei pattern has failed with a target at a retest of the all time high.

I also noted that SPX was close to the daily 3sd upper band, and said that I was looking for a short term consolidation of a week or so, to allow time for the daily middle bands to go higher, and for the daily outer bands to expand, opening up further possible upside. We have since seen that consolidation last for four weeks so far, the daily middle bands turned up, and the outer bands expanded, but then contracted again before they were hit this week.

In my last post on Friday 28th August before the Warsh Speech I was looking at three IHS patterns that had formed on the 15min charts on SPX, QQQ and DIA, and all three broke up on the Warsh speech before failing with targets at retests of their recent lows. The IHS patterns on SPX and QQQ failed on Friday, with DIA failing on Monday. At the same time an H&S broke down on IWM with a target in the 288.80 area.

That gave these four US equity indices downside targets as follows:

• SPX target at 7638.17 - TARGET REACHED

• QQQ target at 702.70 - current low 704.66

• DIA target at 526.76 - current low 526.84

• IWM target at 288.80 - current low 289.97

QQQ, DIA and IWM all came close to their targets this week but those targets were not quite reached. I would generally expect these targets to be hit so my working assumption is that those will be reached before this move completes.

In my (paying subscriber) premarket video this morning I was looking at the hourly buy signals fixed or brewing on ES, NQ, RTY, YM, DAX and ESTX50. These are generally a good indicator for a rally or full reversal and it is that rally that we have seen this morning. That may be topping out at the monthly pivot on ES at 7693, and the ES, RTY and YM hourly buy signals have now all reached their target or possible near miss target.

At this point I am wondering about a low retest that should hit the remaining downside targets and might set up possible double bottoms for a larger rally or full reversal.

Why am I thinking that the current retracement may well be bottoming out here? Well the downside targets I listed above are the only strong current downside targets I have on US equity indices. That is unusual if this retracement is going to get much further and has me wondering about high retests to set up the larger possible retracement patterns that I’m not seeing here yet, apart from a possible double top setup on IWM, and an existing but possibly failing diamond top on QQQ.

There is also this perfect bull flag channel on the SPX 15min chart below. If this channel holds, and there is a matching perfect bull flag channel on ES, then further downside is limited, and the bull flag will likely resolve in due course into a retest of the all time high at 7816.70.

SPX 15min chart:

On the bigger picture the SOX chart is still discouraging for bulls. The H&S on SOX is still intact and looking for 9150. That is a good indicator that it is reasonable to be looking for more downside soon, even if we reverse into high retests in the short term:

SPX reached the daily lower band and has so far formed a bull flag channel from the all time high.

SPX daily chart:

QQQ also reached the daily lower band and still has an overall diamond top target fixed at 642. A retest of the recent high at 734.58 from here could set up a smaller double top that would look for the 668 area. There is an argument that if that double top formed and broke down, and then the 642 target was reached, that might all be part of a larger bull flag forming on QQQ that would then look for an all time high retest.

QQQ daily chart:

DIA also reached the daily lower band and looks like a bull flag forming from the high so far. The bull flag quality would improve considerably with a retest of the 526.76 low and target, and in the short term a decent quality double bottom has formed that on a break up would look for a retest of the all time high:

DIA daily chart:

IWM was leading on the way down and looks somewhat different though this could still be a bull flag forming from the all time high. It wouldn’t be a decent quality flag though and a possible larger double top has already formed.

Against that IWM came very close to a test of the daily 3sd lower band yesterday and that tends to be a good place to see a multi-day rally.

IWM daily chart:

Ideally I would like to see a retest of yesterday’s low on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM and then a strong multi-day rally that may look for a retest of the all time highs on SPX, DIA and IWM before a larger pullback.

There is a possible news issue of course with the Iran War heating up as the US and Iran fight for control over the Strait of Hormuz. That has potential to get a lot worse very fast, particularly if Iran takes the obvious step of mounting a major attack on the Omani port of Fujairah, the linchpin of the US route through Hormuz and the primary transit point of the majority of the oil that is still being exported from the Persian Gulf. If that happens and serious damage is caused there, all upside bets on US equities may be off.

Iran issued a red line a few weeks ago where they said that if the US attacked Iranian power or oil infrastructure then they would widen their targets to any and all oil infrastructure in US allies in the Persian Gulf. The US attacked two power plants in Iran on Sunday and two Iranian tankers yesterday. We are still waiting to see if this escalation will elicit that response. If Iran do respond then the obvious target will be Fujairah.

My post on the bigger picture outlook for bonds was delayed but I’m expecting to publish that before the open tomorrow on my The Bigger Picture substack, so watch out for that. I’m planning another on oil in the next few days but am giving the current situation until the weekend to clarify.

If you like my analysis and would like to see more, please take a free subscription at my chartingthemarkets substack, where I publish these posts first. I also do a premarket video every day on equity indices, bonds, currencies, energies, precious commodities and other commodities at 8.45am EST, but only for paying subscribers. Other places to find me are my page on the platform previously known as twitter, and my YouTube channel.

Waiting on the Jackson Hole Speech

In my post on Tuesday 4th August I was looking at the ambiguous setup on US indices and the Nikkei after the strong rally into the beginning of August, noting the three good quality topping patterns that were still intact on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), QQQ and Nikkei.

I also noted that SPX was close to the daily 3sd upper band, and said that I was looking for a short term consolidation of a week or so, to allow time for the daily middle bands to go higher, and for the daily outer bands to expand, opening up further possible upside. We have since seen that consolidation last for three weeks so far, the daily middle bands have turned up, and the outer bands expanded, but have since started to contract again.

Of those three topping patterns the high quality H&S on Nikkei has since failed with a target at a retest of the all time high but the but the topping patterns on SOX and QQQ remain intact. The H&S right shoulder high on SOX is at 13,249.07 and if that fails to hold as resistance the target would be an all time high retest, but so far that has not been in danger of failing, with a thorough backtest of the 50dma marking the high so far.

In my last post on Wednesday I was looking at the importance of the daily middle bands as trend support and since then we have seen good NVDA earnings on Wednesday night and a modest rally. We are still clearly in this inflection point though and it seems very possible we will see a break up or down on the Fed statement at Jackson Hole expected at 10am EST this morning.

In the meantime the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has rallied back to test daily middle band support from below. This is an index I am watching very carefully as, in the absence of a rejection higher, it is likely in the process of retracing 50% of the huge move up from the April 2025 low:

SOX daily chart:

IWM has also closed under the daily middle band every day this week including yesterday. There is currently no obvious reversal pattern setting up a retest of the all time high.

IWM daily chart:

Of the other indices SPX had a decent, though still modest, move up from the daily middle band yesterday, closing ~0.4% above it, QQQ and DAX did a bit better, closing ~0.7% above it, and both DIA and NIKK closed marginally above their daily middle bands. This is a promising start for possible high retests, but we are still clearly in the inflection point.

Are there any reversal patterns forming that might deliver those high retests? Yes. The best is on DIA, with a decent quality IHS formed that on a sustained break up would look for a retest of the all time high made in early August.

DIA 15min chart:

A possible IHS is forming on SPX and on a sustained break up would look for a retest of the all time high made in mid August.

SPX 15min chart:

A small IHS may be forming on QQQ as well, and on a sustained break up would look for a retest of the short term high made in mid August. That pattern wouldn’t be looking for a retest of the all time high, but wouldn’t need to go a lot further to deliver that.

QQQ 15min chart:

What are my expectations of the Jackson Hole Speech? Well any talk of a cut in the Fed Funds Rate seems unlikely, as there is still a lot of upwards pressure on prices, and the new trade war with Canada and talk of increased tariffs elsewhere will definitely not be helping with that. We should really see a rise in the Fed Funds Rate, but the consensus view seems to be that Warsh will try to delay further rises until after the midterm vote on November 3rd, by which time it is possible that inflationary pressures may have moderated. If we don’t see any shift in rates then the tone of the speech today will be watched carefully. We’ll see how that goes.

I am writing a big post on the outlook for bonds that I’m planning to publish later today or over the weekend on my The Bigger Picture substack, so watch out for that.

If you like my analysis and would like to see more, please take a free subscription at my chartingthemarkets substack, where I publish these posts first. I also do a premarket video every day on equity indices, bonds, currencies, energies, precious commodities and other commodities at 8.45am EST, but only for paying subscribers. Other places to find me are my page on the platform previously known as twitter, and my YouTube channel.

The Importance of the Daily Middle Bands

In my post on Tuesday 4th August I was looking at the ambiguous setup on US indices and the Nikkei after the strong rally into the beginning of August, noting the three good quality topping patterns that were still intact on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), QQQ and Nikkei.

I also noted that SPX was close to the daily 3sd upper band, and said that I was looking for a short term consolidation of a week or so, to allow time for the daily middle bands to go higher, and for the daily outer bands to expand, opening up further possible upside. We have since seen that consolidation last for three weeks so far, the daily middle bands have turned up, and the outer bands expanded, but have since started to contract again.

Of those three topping patterns the high quality H&S on Nikkei has since failed with a target at a retest of the all time high but the but the topping patterns on SOX and QQQ remain intact. The H&S right shoulder high on SOX is at 13,249.07 and if that fails to hold as resistance the target would be an all time high retest, but so far that has not been in danger of failing, with a thorough backtest of the 50dma marking the high so far.

Moving on to this week there is a very good example here of something I talk about on a very regular basis, and that is the importance of the daily middle bands as support. We have seen some promising smallish topping patterns break down last week, but for the last few days almost all the stock indices that I follow have been fighting to hold their daily middle bands as support. So far these have been holding for the most part, and if that continues to be the case I’d expect to see some high retests starting soon.

On SPX the daily middle band has been holding as support for five days and SPX closed yesterday nine handles above the daily middle band, in effect a close on daily middle band support:

SPX daily chart:

On IWM the daily middle band has been holding as support for five days with a couple of closes slightly below, and IWM closed yesterday 0.08 handles above the daily middle band, a close almost exactly on daily middle band support:

IWM daily chart:

On DIA the daily middle band was broken for two days last week with DIA trading entirely below it on Thursday and Friday, but DIA broke back over it on Monday and closed well above it yesterday:

DIA daily chart:

Of the two non-US stock indices that I follow closely DAX has been testing the daily middle band as support for a week but again closed comfortably above it yesterday.

DAX daily chart:

On NIKK the daily middle band has been holding as support for five days with a couple of closes slightly below, and NIKK gapped below it at yesterday’s open below and then rallied to close back above it.

NIKK daily chart:

That brings me to the weakest looking indices on Tech, and if we are going to see some high retests then ideally Tech would be leading that move back up.

On QQQ the daily middle band has been tested as support over the last four days and both closes this week were visibly below it. That’s not a break down with much conviction yet, but it is a confirmed break down, with yesterday’s close confirming Monday’s break below the daily middle band:

QQQ daily chart:

Last and weakest is the Philadelphia Semiconductors Index (SOX) which broke below the daily middle band last Wednesday and has closed below it every day since. This failed hard at a double test of the 50dma as resistance over the previous week and of course still has an H&S which has broken down with a target a lot lower in the 9150 area.

SOX daily chart:

Which way will this go? Well it looks like markets may be waiting for NVDA earnings, which will be out after the RTH closes in the US tonight. NVDA is currently about 10% off the May highs and is also currently below the daily middle band. Earnings are likely to be strong and it will be very interesting to see how much attention is paid to those against NVDA’s exposure to an AI boom that doesn’t seem likely to deliver anything resembling a profit in the easily foreseeable future.

Warsh will also be delivering his keynote remarks at Jackson Hole on Friday morning and that too could be interesting.

Bottom line, this is an important support test for equities almost across the board, a failure to break down will likely deliver high retests, and a sustained support break here could take prices significantly lower. The direction of that break may well be delivered by the news over the rest of this week.

If you like my analysis and would like to see more, please take a free subscription at my chartingthemarkets substack, where I publish these posts first. I also do a premarket video every day on equity indices, bonds, currencies, energies, precious commodities and other commodities at 8.45am EST, but only for paying subscribers. Other places to find me are my page on the platform previously known as twitter, and my YouTube channel.

Still A Tale of Two Markets

In my last post on Tuesday 4th August I was looking at the ambiguous setup on US indices and the Nikkei after the strong rally into the beginning of August, noting the three good quality topping patterns that were still intact on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), QQQ and Nikkei.

I also noted that SPX was close to the daily 3sd upper band and said that I was looking for a short term consolidation of a week or so to allow time for the daily middle bands to go higher, and for the daily outer bands to expand, opening up further possible upside. We have since seen that consolidation, the daily middle bands have turned up and the outer bands have expanded.

Of those three topping patterns the high quality H&S on Nikkei failed on Friday but the topping patterns on SOX and QQQ remain intact. If we are going to see US indices go higher the obvious driver for that move would be AI & Tech generally so I have been watching SOX with particular interest, and there we have seen a thorough backtest of the 50dma which has held so far. The H&S right shoulder high is at 13,249.07 and if that fails to hold as resistance the target would be an all time high retest but so far that has not been in danger of failing:

The QQQ diamond top would only fail on the retest of the all time high and has not come that close to that yet. This isn’t as important though as a retest of the all time high would initially just set up a possible alternate double top.

QQQ daily chart:

It is DIA, SPX and IWM that are particularly interesting here in terms of a possible further leg up in this seemingly endless bull market. All of these have significant and decent quality resistance trendlines from the April 2025 low that would need to be broken to open up a serious move higher.

Looking at SPX I have a strong rising wedge resistance trendline currently in the 7860-70 area. If that isn’t going to break then the next obvious target within the rising wedge would be wedge support, currently in the 6930 area.

In the short term a daily RSI 5 sell signal fixed last night, I’m wondering about a possible backtest of the daily middle band currently at 7610, and a small double top is trying to break down with a target in the 7580-7603 range.

SPX daily chart:

Looking at DIA I have a strong rising megaphone resistance trendline which was actually hit at the latest all time high. If that isn’t going to break then the next obvious target within the rising megaphone would be megaphone support, currently in the 483 area.

In the short term I have support at the daily middle band at 530.65, close to being backtested today, at rising support from the March low, currently at 524, and the 50dma, currently at 523.71.

DIA daily chart:

Looking at IWM I have a strong rising megaphone resistance trendline currently in the 312 area. If that isn’t going to break then the next obvious target within the rising megaphone would be megaphone support, currently in the 264 area.

In the short term I’m wondering about a possible backtest of the daily middle band currently at 297-8, and a possible double top has formed with support at 287.83 and, in the event that double top breaks down, a target in the 270.5 to 273 area.

IWM daily chart:

I remain skeptical about another big move up on equities here as Tech has been faltering in recent months for very good reasons, and there are strong and well established resistance trendlines above on all of SPX, DIA & IWM. If we do see that move it would likely be because we were seeing another big leg up on Tech that would drag the other indices higher.

If we are to see that big leg up on Tech, the first real confirmation would be a failure of the H&S on SOX with a move over 13,249.07. That would open a retest of the all time high at 14,655.29, setting up a possible larger double top and another inflection point. If we were to see a strong break up from there then that would likely break all my other resistance trendlines with confidence.

Until we see that, SOX is still pointing firmly down and in the short term there is a decent case that more downside is coming across the board. If we see the US indices go lower I’ll be watching the 7580 to 7620 area on SPX as the next obvious strong support level.

If you like my analysis and would like to see more, please take a free subscription at my chartingthemarkets substack, where I publish these posts first. I also do a premarket video every day on equity indices, bonds, currencies, energies, precious commodities and other commodities at 8.45am EST, but only for paying subscribers. Other places to find me are my page on the platform previously known as twitter, and my YouTube channel.

A Tale Of Two Markets

In my last post on Thursday 30th July I was looking at the downside targets on all the topping patterns on the main US indices and since then we have seen a very strong reversal back up, with those downside patterns failing into new all time highs on SPX and DIA, and failing today on IWM. This is now another big inflection point where US equity indices could turn down hard or continue higher, and I’ll be looking at that today.

Part of the reason for this has been the Iran War news where yet another imminent deal was announced on Sunday, though yesterday Iran denied any imminent deal or current ceasefire and underlined that by attacking the US base in Kuwait last night.

This morning Trump is back to issuing bloodcurdling threats to force Iran back to the negotiating table, and talking about a deal that might be concluded tomorrow, but unless he is now threatening a nuclear strike it’s hard to see that being any more successful than the previous ten or eleven times this has happened since March. Even in that case Iran would clearly appeal to their allies China and Russia and I suspect China at least would intervene to deter any use of nuclear weapons in this war.

I wrote in early May that both the US and Iran had been waiting for the other to concede defeat since March. That remains the case and it seems a long shot to think that Iran will now concede their control of the Strait of Hormuz as that has been a very clear red line for them since the start of the war. We’ll see what happens next but at the moment this looks like a Mexican standoff with the US threatening to devastate Iran, while Iran promises to respond by devastating oil and gas infrastructure in the rest of the Persian Gulf. The short term options for the US appear to be to resume the hot war on a similar limited basis to previous unsuccessful bombing campaigns, or to concede that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and try to spin that as a win.

Looking at the US equity markets SPX made a new high today and could go higher. I’ll be doing another post in a day or two looking at that. Short term though SPX is close to the daily 3sd upper band and at minimum I’d be looking for a consolidation in this area for a week or so to allow the daily middle band to turn up more, and for the daily bands to expand to allow more room under the daily 3sd upper band.

On the bear side there is now a high quality double top setup on SPX.

SPX daily chart:

The H&S on DIA failed yesterday and DIA made a new all time high today. DIA was hitting the daily 3sd upper band as I capped the chart below and this also likely needs another week or so to consolidate if DIA is heading higher. Again I have a possible upside target and that is getting close in the 547 area.

On the bear side there is now a high quality double top setup on DIA.

DIA daily chart:

The H&S on IWM failed today and that gives IWM a possible target at a retest of the all time high.

On the bear side there is also a possible alternate H&S right shoulder forming so that ATH retest need not necessarily be seen.

While the three indices above all had their topping patterns fail, the three remaining topping patterns on the charts below still look just fine and are the key to the current inflection point.

On the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) an H&S has broken down with a target in the 9510 area and that currently looks fine. SOX is testing the daily middle band and on a break above I’d be watching for a possible move over the right shoulder high in the 13,249.07 to invalidate the H&S. If we see that, and Tech stops lagging the rest of the market, we might see a genuine break up. That test isn’t close yet though.

SOX daily chart:

Looking at QQQ we saw a decent break back over the daily middle band this morning into a backtest of the 50dma. A diamond top has broken down with a target in the 642 area and that topping pattern still looks fine. As with SOX, if Tech stops lagging the rest of the market, we might see a genuine break up, so we will see what happens next.

QQQ daily chart:

The last chart of the day is the Nikkei 225, looking beyond US markets but it’s worth looking further afield, particularly as DAX and ESTX50 both just retested their all time highs and formed decent quality possible double tops.

On NIKK an H&S broke down last week with a target in the 52000 area. That H&S still looks just fine as well, with NIKK still well below the daily middle band and 50dma. All of these three charts on SOX, QQQ & NIKK still lean bearish and that may well not change.

NIKK daily chart:

So that is the inflection point here. On the bull side we would likely see a consolidation in the current area on SPX and DIA for a week or two, to give room for the daily 3sd upper bands to rise, and then go higher, likely sustained by a Tech sector returning to retest the current all time highs.

On the bear side the downside patterns on SOX, QQQ and NIKK are just seeing a rally here, and the topping patterns on SPX, DIA and IWM have all been improved by the move up since last Wednesday, backed up by new double top setups on DAX and ESTX50 that have now also now formed and might start playing out.

We will see which way this goes and I’m planning another post for tomorrow looking at possible upside targets on SPX, DIA and IWM in the event that US equity markets go higher.

I have very real doubts about that move higher, as the Iran War for now appears to be an insoluble quagmire, the Tech sector is having genuine issues with Chinese innovations and massive capex plans causing serious market concerns, and US bond yields are on a very clear and sustained bullish track that may go a lot further. As always time will tell.

If you like my analysis and would like to see more, please take a free subscription at my chartingthemarkets substack, where I publish these posts first. I also do a premarket video every day on equity indices, bonds, currencies, energies, precious commodities and other commodities at 8.45am EST, but only for paying subscribers. Other places to find me are my page on the platform previously known as twitter, and my YouTube channel.

Downside Targets

In my post yesterday I was looking at the diamond top on the SPX daily chart which was starting to break down, and then went on to close the day with a clear break below it. The falling and possible bull flag channel on TSLA also broke down by the end of the day. There are now a lot of fixed downside targets on equity indices so today I’m going to lay out all the main ones that I am watching.

This decline is led by Tech, so the first target is the one the H&S that I have been posting on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX). That target is in the 9,150 area, and I can’t see any reason to think that target won’t be reached.

SOX daily chart:

The other main Tech index is NDX if course and on QQQ, the NDX ETF, the diamond top target there is in the 642 area. That’s getting close, and if SOX, SPX and so on are to reach their targets I’d expect QQQ to go lower. The obvious next target would be the rising support trendline from the April 2025 low, currently on the 607 area.

QQQ daily chart:

On SPX, with a large Tech component, the diamond top target is in the 6980 area.

SPX daily chart:

The downside targets on IWM and DIA are more modest, as the Tech component is lower, and I’m showing these on the 15min charts relative to the move up from the late March low.

On IWM an H&S has broken down with a target in the 279 area.

IWM 15min chart:

On DIA a small H&S has already broken down with a target in 510 area. A larger H&S has now also formed and was testing the neckline at the low yesterday. On a sustained break below that neckline the larger H&S target would be in the 495.5 area.

DIA 15min chart:

My last chart today is the Nikkei 225, which has broken down this week with a target in the 52,000 area, close to a 50% retracement of the move up from the April 2025 low.

NIKK daily chart:

If you like my analysis and would like to see more, please take a free subscription at my chartingthemarkets substack, where I publish these posts first. I also do a premarket video every day on equity indices, bonds, currencies, energies, precious commodities and other commodities at 8.45am EST, but only for paying subscribers. Other places to find me are my page on the platform previously known as twitter, and my YouTube channel.