Tick Tock

Yesterday was a fairly classic inside day, with SPX holding the 2110 bull/bear line that I gave in the morning and making a model 50% fib retracement of the move up from Tuesday's low. So far, so bullish. As long as yesterday's low holds I'm therefore leaning bullish into a retest of the highs.

That said there is a significant issue that bulls need to sort out without much delay, and that is the failure so far to recapture and sustain trade over the key 50 hour MA, now at 2123. Both Wednesday and Thursday have failed there and if we see another fail this morning then we might well see a reversal down to the support trendline on the rising wedge from 2145 marked on the chart below. That would be in the 2080 area at the moment.

You can also see looking at the shorter term wedge that the obvious targets within it are the highs retest and the 2138 area. Anything would require a break over wedge resistance. SPX 60min chart:

Looking at the 5min chart bulls don't really want to lose short term rising channel support at 2118, and need to take out falling channel resistance at 2124 as a matter of urgency. If bulls can do that then a retest of the highs should open up. If not the bulls could have a very bad day today. SPX 5min chart:

What are the odds of a bearish resolution today? Well better than they would be on most days. The last trading day of the month has closed red for the last six months, with the following closes: -5, -22, -26, -5, -18, -21

The last trading day for the previous six months were 50% green but I should mention that the mean decline was still -2 and that only one of these last trading days in the last year has closed better than five handles in the green. The results for the previous six months were as follows: +3, -0.5, -40, +5, -5, +24,

Overall the takeaway is that average (mean) decline over the last year of last trading days of the month was -8, with three out of four closing red, with almost half closing 18 handles or more down, and with the last one to close green in October 2014. The bulls are on must perform today and these stats aren't particularly encouraging for them. We'll see how they get on.

Nowhere To Run To

The bulls put in a very strong day yesterday and that has most likely put SPX on the 25% highs retest path, though the market has been so whippy lately that I'd like to see that SPX holds 2110-8 this morning to be sure. On the stats I gave last Friday one of these made a marginal new high that was the second high of a double top, and the other continued the previous uptrend. .

In truth these are almost a single option here, if only because resistance on the rising channel from the 2012 lows is now in the 2190-220 range, so unless that resistance could be broken, which historically is most unlikely, then headroom here is too limited to continue an uptrend for long.

If we are looking at the highs retest option then the obvious resistance levels are at the current all time high at 2134.72, the daily upper band at 2141 and the weekly upper band at 2153. The RUT chart is favoring the lower targets and the higher target would be a near perfect retest of broken support on the rising wedge from the October low so that has some appeal too.

If we see the continuation option that we would most likely punch through the weekly upper band (weekly close basis). if so I'll roll out the stats on these punches as indicators for an imminent top.

The 15min and 5min buy signals that I mentioned yesterday morning have both made target and a 5min sell signal fixed at the close yesterday, so I'm favoring an AM low today. SPX weekly chart:

SPX daily chart:

As long as bulls can hold support this morning then we should see the highs retested. If SPX breaks back below 2110 then yesterday was most likely a bull trap before a resumption of the downtrend. Neither option significantly changes my forecast for what we are likely to see over the rest of 2015.

A Decent Start

That was a decent decline yesterday, though ideally bears should have controlled the close and they didn't. The minimum requirement on all the various sell indicators that I was looking at on Friday and yesterday morning were met as the 15min and 60min sell signals made target, the RSI5/NYMO sell signal made a visual hit just shy of the 30 level at 31.54. That was a very near miss and I'd count that as close enough, so that is effectively made though usually we would see a close under the 30 level and we'll most likely see one here as well.

In terms of the stats I was looking at on Friday for series of bearish reversal candles the minimum requirement of a 1.65% decline was met yesterday with move of 1.665% from the all time high into yesterday's low. Of the nine examples that I listed, two reversed back up to retest the high after that decline, of which one continued the previous uptrend, and the other made a marginal new high before a 9.83% decline from that second high. Six continued down without a retest of the high to a median decline of 4.5% to 5% from the high, and an average (mean) decline of 15%. The odds therefore favor continuation down without a retest by three to one. We shall see how far the bulls can rally today.

As for the daily candle yesterday, that was a confident punch down through the daily middle band. he key for the bears today is to close at or below the middle band, and bulls want to reverse yesterday's candle with a strong close back above it. SPX daily chart:

All the short term reversal pattern targets I had marked on my optic run charts yesterday morning made target and I have very decent looking support trendlines on SPX and Dow now. The rally today should establish the declining resistance trendline now. One note of interest on this particular chart is that TRAN did a bearish overthrow of the falling wedge there on Friday and then broke down hard from that falling wedge yesterday. The target is in the 8080 area and I would generally expect that target to be made. That leans towards continuation down after a limited rally here. Scan 3x 15min SPX INDU TRAN charts:

On NDX and RUT I would also note that these were both in clear channels (albeit hard ones to identify early), and those both broke down yesterday. Again this suggests continuation after a limited rally.  Scan 3x NDX RUT NYA charts:

USD has rallied faster than I expected and I have updated the path I am expecting here accordingly. I'm neutral about whether USD breaks up at the test of channel/flag resistance. USD daily chart:

30yr bond yields are following the likely path that I laid out for these last week. We may see yields rally a bit today and if so I'd expect that to be a sell. TYX daily chart:

The picture on TLT is mainly just an inversion of the TYX chart. The TYX double top broke down yesterday as the TLT double bottom was breaking up. TLT 60min chart:

SPX is on 5min and 15min buy signals from the low yesterday and we should see a rally of whatever size today. Ideally I'd be looking for that to fail in the 2112.5 area ideal (38.2% fib retrace) and my bull/bear line today is at 2121, with the 61.8% fib retrace level there and the 50 hour MA declining into that area rapidly.

On The Road to 1820

A daily RSI5 / NYMO sell signal fixed at the close on Friday, and this is a very high performance sell signal. I think the hit rate for this signal is 75%+ and I haven't updated the statistics today as the last six RSI5/NYMO buy or sell signals on the chart below all made target (the 30 level on the daily RSI 5), so the stats certainly aren't getting worse. This daily sell signal joins the 60min and 15min sell signals still open from last week. SPX daily chart:

As for the short term pattern setups here they are look as though they are topping or have already topped. That's with the exception of TRAN which was making new 2015 lows last week. Scan 3x 15min SPX INDU TRAN:

Scan 3x 15min NDX RUT NYA charts:

Just a note on EURUSD which has rallied to falling channel resistance and failed there so far. I'm expecting this to continue down though there is a very significant risk of a rally soon as there is no clear topping pattern. EURUSD daily chart:

The indices are breaking down at the open today and I'm expecting this to follow through to the downside . Unless the current all time high is retested and exceeded by a few handles, then I'm thinking that the SPX high for 2015 was most likely made on Wednesday last week at 2134.72, just within the 2126-2135 range I gave as my ideal topping area the previous day. Partly through luck I managed to put a short on at 2132 ES, the exact high once the bid/offer spread is taken into account, and I'm planning to keep that position on for at least 300 handles down, as the obvious main target for this move is a retest of the October low at 1820 SPX. I'll be trading in and out in the meantime as well of course.

Chop Top

I've been doing more work on the series of bearish reversal candles over the last twenty years and have combed through 90% or so of the intervening period. I'll finish that at the weekend and may do a dedicated post on these. The ones I have found so far are:

1999 Feb - From 2nd candle into 5% decline
2002 Dec - From 2nd candle into 17.3% decline
2004 Dec - From 2nd candle into 4.46% decline, then marginal higher high, then 7.56% decline
2005 Oct - From 2nd candle into 2.08% decline
2005 Nov - Failed and resumed uptrend into December interim high
2005 Dec - From 2nd candle into 4.44% decline
2007 Oct - From 3rd candle into 57.4% decline
2014 May - From 2nd candle into 1.66% decline
2014 Sept - From 2nd candle into 1.65% decline, then marginal higher high, then 9.83% decline
2015 May - To be determined

Now the first thing that really springs to the eye here is that the only two of these series of two bearish reversal candles made a new high short term, and one of those was the September 2014 series of three. 8 of the 9 resolved down effectively immediately. If we should beat Wednesday's high at 2134.72 before a decline to at minimum a test of 2099.5 then this time would be a rarity, and that could happen, but the odds are against it, and if seen that would most likely be because of tiny holiday volume. . I would note that the SPX high yesterday was 0.44 handles under Wednesday's new all time high. This setup is highly bearish short term and the median decline from it has been in the 4/5% area.

All indices on my optic run list have now broken short term support including SPX, which tested rising wedge support at the open yesterday, and broke wedge support slightly at the open today. A possible double top is in place which would target the 2111 area on a break below 2123.  For obvious historical reasons I would be looking for continuation down to at least test the 2100 area. Scan 3x 15min SPX INDU TRAN charts:

Scan 3x 15min NDX RUT NYA charts:

I was asked about Dow Theory non-confirmations yesterday and here is the monthly/20yr chart of Dow and TRAN showing all divergences over that period where a Dow all time high was not confirmed by TRAN. This chart is suggesting a possible major top here but that's my alternate scenario, with my main scenario just being a 15-20% correction. Only one way to find out for sure though :-) Dow Theory Divergences Monthly 20Yr chart:

At the risk of USD making the chart below irrelevant by breaking up through 96.1 area resistance with confidence now on the strength of this morning's inflation numbers, these are the two most likely scenarios in my view if that resistance holds. USD daily chart:

I posted this falling wedge recently calling for a rally on TLT into falling wedge resistance in the 128 area. That looks even more likely with the bottoming action since then. It's possible that TLT could run all the way back to test the 137 high on the strength of this setup. TLT 60min chart:

I haven't entirely finished collating these bearish reversal series stats but they are really very bearish. The last time I posted stats this mono-directional was in early Feb 2014 and that played out exactly as the stats expected. You can see that post here. We'll see what happens here, but any new high today is likely to be down to holiday volume. The bearish pattern setups here also lean very bearish short term. Trade safe and watch your risk over the long weekend. :-)

Denial is NOT a River in Africa

I've been reading a lot of talk this morning about how there is no real chance that SPX will make any kind of high in the easily foreseeable future and that's natural. This wave up from October 2011 has been so long and so powerful that it has left many with the strong impression that TA is valueless and that the only possible road to success is buying the dip and holding on at all costs. An extended wave 3 up will breed bullish complacency.

In all honesty that may well be the case for another two or three years, depending on the individual trader's tolerance for pain, and over a timescale of decades the long side always wins through. However the current setup on equities looks VERY toppy, and the level of denial that I've been seeing from some quarters about this just beggars belief.

We have seen two consecutive bearish reversal candles in the last two days. A bearish reversal candle is one where a new high is made and then the day closes red. These candles are common enough, and if you look through the SPX chart you will see many of these both at tops and smaller reversals. Series of this type of candle are rare however. My friend Cobra found seven on SPY in the last 12 years that he posted last night, all of which resolved bearishly, and I've had a quick look this morning at past series of these on SPX.

I found three series on SPX since the start of 2004, though I'll be going through in more detail over the next few days to see if I missed any. The first instance was a series of two in late December 2004 at the first high of a (failed) double top. There was an immediate 4.46% decline, then a marginal higher high, then a 7.56% decline. SPX daily BRC Series 2004/5:

The second instance, again a series of two was at the 2007 top, and I'm going to assume that people remember what happened after that one well enough that I don't need to post the stats for it.

The third instance was a series of three at the first high of a double top in September 2014. There was an immediate 1.65% decline, then a marginal higher high, then a 9.83% decline into the October low last year. SPX daily BRC Series 2014:

These are not bull-friendly stats, and any candle aware traders are getting rightly cautious here. The stats suggest strongly that either the high yesterday was the short term high, and that a significant high has been made or is forming with minimal further upside. If we see a new all time high today, bulls really need to close it over the current highs to inspire any confidence at all.

On my optic run indices they all look toppy with the exception of TRAN, which made new lows in an ongoing decline that started last November. Scan 15min 3x SPX INDU TRAN charts:

NDX is forming a fairly rare right-angled broadening formation rather than a double top. These are 66% bearish as well of course. Scan 15min 3x NDX RUT NYA charts:

People ignore history at their peril, as the massive consensus expecting a big decline on bonds found out last year when there was a huge rally instead. The history was clear, as I pointed out at the time, and what happened before went ahead and happened again. History can't tell you everything, and it can't actually predict the future, but if an axe has been dropped on your foot three times in the past, and on each occasion that was swiftly followed by a visit to the hospital, then at the least that should make us have that outcome as our preferred scenario in the event that it ever happens again.

We'll see how it goes today but if bulls can break through to new highs today and hold them, then they are beating the historical odds by a wide margin. It is much more likely that they will fail. I am now leaning strongly bearish today, and over the next few weeks. In the unlikely event that we see a new all time high today, I'll be treating it as a strong selling opportunity.

Weak Highs

The tape didn't actually move much yesterday, but nonetheless the bears had a very decent technical day. On SPX It looks very much as though the possible falling wedge I posted yesterday morning may be in play, and if so that is very significant, because in this context that would be an EW ending diagonal, a terminating pattern that in turn is the final move within the much larger rising wedge / ending diagonal from the October low. I'm very much liking the odds of putting in the spring high in this area.

Indices are looking increasingly bearish here. The appear to be rising wedges on SPX, INDU, RUT and NYA, and at the time of writing only SPX and RUT haven't broken rising support from the lows on 6th May. The short term high may not quite be in yet, but it looks close, and I now have SPX on both 15min and 60min RSI sell signals. What I would like to see next is for SPX to test rising wedge support to confirm or break it, and that's currently in the 2118 area with my trend health bellwether the 60min 50 MA slightly below at 2115. Scan 3x SPX INDU TRAN 15min charts:

Scan 3x NDX RUT NYA 15min charts:

I've been giving the setup on bonds here some thought and while I am still expecting the current low areas on TLT and ZB to hold, and for a strong rally to happen here, I'm wondering now whether that rally might run all the way back to a retest of the 2015 highs to establish the second high of a double top. There are a couple of reasons for this. The first is that I've not been that happy about the lack of an obvious topping pattern on the bonds chart, particularly TLT. The second is that the current TLT low makes a perfectly classic lower trendline for a falling wedge. The resulting double top would also target the 97 area, which is the lower trendline on the huge long term rising megaphone on TLT which is the pattern that I used to call the 2015 high on TLT. Altogether this would be a technically ideal scenario from my perspective and it could happen. You can see that chart from my post on 3rd February here.

Particularly with expecting serious turbulence in the equity markets in the near future I am very much wondering about the possibility that bonds may retest the 2015 highs on this setup and the flight to safety trade. We shall see. TLT 60min chart:

We may see a new all time high made on SPX today and if bulls can follow that through into the close then this picture might start looking less bearish. As it stands though the next short term high looks close and I like the odds for that being both the spring and 2015 high on SPX. I'm leaning short today and looking for a test of the 2118 level on SPX. The stats for tomorrow are firmly bearish and if bulls can't impress today I think we might well see SPX trend down tomorrow.

Topping Options

I gave my preferred topping range last week as 2126-35, with a possible overthrow into the weekly upper band at 2145. The weekly upper band is now at 2152. The high yesterday was at 2131.78, well into that preferred topping zone.

Short term the chart looks weak, with a 5min sell signal, a 15min sell signal not yet fixed, and a possible rising wedge resistance trendline hit at the high yesterday. That opens up a possible move to test rising support from 2067 and the 50 hour MA, currently in the 2012-4 area. A break below there should mean mean that the spring high has most likely been made, though it might still then be retested. SPX 15min chart:

If we see some strength today then I will be watching to see whether an upper band ride might be starting. If so I'd be expecting at least a test of the daily upper band at 2132 today. If an upper band ride gets established that could run SPX up through my preferred target area (up to broken rising wedge support) into higher options. SPX daily chart:

The higher options if we see a break up through 2136 are the weekly upper band at 2152, and the monthly upper band at 2175. There is an open triangle target at 2185 but that would risk a move over rising wedge resistance which would be very unusual at this stage. That would only happen on a breakup from the wedge generally, and with very strong primary rising channel resistance in the 2200-10 area, this wedge isn't breaking up. SPX weekly chart:

Is the spring high in? Maybe, but if so then 2112-4 support needs to be broken. If we see that it's very important to remember that the high might still then be retested to form a double top.

The Recent Monday Setup

Obviously SPX has delivered a lot of chop this year and remarkably, of the nineteen weekly candles so far, eleven have tested the weekly middle band with two near misses. Of the last ten weekly candles, six have fully tested the weekly middle band with two near misses. Will we see the same thing again this week? If so the weekly middle band is currently at 2077. SPX weekly chart:

Just to add to that though, over the last three Mondays SPX has made a new high in the morning and then fallen 2% or more afterwards. On all three Mondays this was following a Friday where RSI hit the overbought 70 level and hadn't retraced much. We are  looking at the same setup coming into this morning and it will be very interesting to see if the same happens again this week.; If SPX makes a marginal new all time high this morning and that is rejected, that could be the spring high that I am expecting very shortly. SPX 15min chart:

I'm looking for the spring high to be made this week, possibly this morning. After that I'm looking for a big decline to start on SPX with confirmation at a break of double top support at 2039. Support today is at the 50 hour MA at 2108 and rising support in the same area, and the daily middle band at 2106. If SPX break breaks those levels with some conviction then I'll then be looking for a hit of the weekly middle band at 2077. 

Resistible Force Meets Movable Object + USD Update

There's not a great deal to add on SPX today. Bulls failed to recover over the daily middle band yesterday but did establish a three touch rising support trendline from the 2067 low. This is a springboard to attempt the marginal new high that I'm looking for here in the next trading days and the big gap up is a promising start to that. On a break below that rising support trendline the chances are that both the short term and 2015 high would already have been made. SPX 5min chart:

I was expecting this decline on USD from the March high to reverse back up from rising megaphone support in the 95 area, but instead USD broke rising megaphone support. What now then? Well there is a strong case for further downside here and in my view there a three higher probability paths that USD may take from here. These are as follows:

First option - USD has broken down from a double top targeting major support at the 61.8% fib retrace area at 88.70. USD may continue straight there. Most likely see a resumption of greater uptrend there.

Second option - USD bounces here at 38.2% fib retracement support and does a 38.2% fib retrace of the decline so far into the 96-7 area. The double top then plays out into the 88.70 area target. This is the most bearish option as it sets up a possible H&S at the 38.6% fib neckline that would then target a 77.2% target well below 88.70 area support. This would increase the chances that the 100.71 high was a major top, and that the megaphone will therefore retrace all the way back into the low 80s.

Third option - The double top fails here at the 38.2% fib and the uptrend resumes into at least the major double bottom target in the 105 area.

I'm watching what happens at this support level with very great interest. USD daily chart:

SPX has been kicking round in this area for subjectively forever. Neither side seems to have much conviction and it's been hard to get anything going for long. I'm hoping that bulls have the juice left to get SPX into a new all time high. After that they can and will most likely fail into the summer retracement, which may well last the rest of the year. The last print of 2014 was 2058.90, and my historical stats are not expecting to close significantly over that at best, with a very possible close 5% to 10% below.

Some Bold Projections

SPX gapped down hard below the daily middle band yesterday and rallied to close just under the middle band. What I would like to see now is a break back over the middle band, and then a fast move back to the daily upper band to make a marginal new all time high. I'd be looking for the 2015 high at that marginal new high, and would then be looking for a 300+ handle decline to retest the October low at 1820, with a rally on the way to establish an H&S right shoulder at the likely 1972 area neckline.

Will it play out that way? Only one way to find out but it's the best fit for what I can see here. On the first trading day of February I observed that historically the best likely case for SPX in 2015 was a flat year, and nothing has changed relating to that since then in my view. SPX daily chart:

SPX looks cooked and ready to serve here, RUT too, and also NDX as shown on the chart below. The next big move should be down now. NDX weekly chart:

I hope that those of you who took the bonds short I suggested a few weeks ago have been having fun. I'm expecting a decent rally here before the main down on bonds for 2015 begins and I've marked up what I'm expecting to see on the TYX chart below. Obviously TYX is the 30 year yields chart, so it is inverted. In ZB terms the low at 151 may well be retested but I'm then expecting a rally into the 160-3 area, then a much larger decline to what would then be an H&S target in the 128-32 area. That move would entirely retrace all the gains made on bonds since the start of 2014, and would raise 30 year yields from 2.7% to 4% in the process. Don't get caught on the wrong side of this move. TYX daily chart:

SPX is back over the daily middle band and I would like to see the final move to a marginal new all time high this week. If we see a close significantly under the 5 DMA (currently 2097) today then the spring high is most likely already made.

Between Trends

SPX tested falling megaphone resistance yesterday morning and has failed hard there, retracing 61.8% or a bit more on  the six indices below. That's about as much as the bulls can concede without most likely retracing all of the last move up. If we see a significant break below the low this morning at 2085 then I'll be expecting more downside. SPX 60min chart:

Scan 3x SPX INDU TRAN chart:

Scan 3x NDX RUT NYA chart:

There's been a significant bounce from the opening lows, and obvious resistance at 2101/2 at the 50 hour MA and the daily middle band. On the bull case we may well still see a reversal to test the morning lows to make the second low of a double bottom. On the bear case that goes hard through the morning lows and that would open up a move back into the 2060s. If we should see a sustained break above 2102 today then that would be impressively bullish, though SPX would need to close back above the daily middle band today for it this break down to be a full fail.

One last note here is that this falling megaphone could break down. If so and the double top support at 2039 was broken, we would then have that double top, the triangle, and the falling megaphone all pointed due south to targets between 1960 and 2000. If that should happen next that break of 2039 should very much be respected.

Lost In Space

I think I now have the pattern for this wildly choppy action over the last few days, and it's a falling megaphone that looks likely to break up soon, though we may well see a decent retracement before any test of the all time high. SPX 60min chart:

Looking at the scan charts TRAN is still the weakest with the obvious target for the current retracement on SPX at 2105 (rising target obviously). A break below that would open up targets lower down, with the daily middle band at 2102 and the 50 hour MA at 2099. On a significant break under the 50 hour MA we could see another of the hard spikes down that have dominated the last couple of weeks.  Scan 3x SPX INDU TRAN chart:

NDX and RUT are already testing rising support from the last lows. If that breaks that looks moderately bearish but I'd be looking for SPX to break hard before assuming another spike down had started. Scan 3x NDX RUT NYA chart:

This has been very spiky tape the last few days and it would be very nice to see it resolve into a decent trend move in either direction. Meantime we will just have to wait for this already lengthy topping process to complete.

Seriously Choppy Market

My rally target yesterday morning was a retest of the daily middle band at 2100. SPX gapped over that this morning and the question now is whether the bulls can hold this break into the close. If they can then that would be impressively bullish and the new highs scenario would be back on the table. SPX daily chart:

I spent hours this morning doing intricate charts on SPX, INDU, TRAN, NDX, RUT and NYA, and came to the clear conclusion that all but TRAN had clear bottoming patterns that had not made target, and in the case of INDU and NDX, we're only mid-move from the low. After the bad NFP numbers all these patterns have now made target so bulls no longer have pattern support for going higher, though I'd have preferred that the indices had waited until after I published these to make target. We'll see whether this break up can last the rest of the day . SPX INDU TRAN 3x scan chart:

NDX RUT NYA 3x scan chart:

I'm still leaning bearish here and looking for signs that this may reverse back down hard. If the bulls can hold the daily middle band today though then the new highs scenario into the 2140 or 2170 area would be back on the table, though with the 2170 area now as the strongly preferred target on a break to new highs.

Expecting Rally Soon

SPX blew through my 2072.37 support yesterday and so my lean is now that the spring high was made at 2025. SPX went well below the daily lower band yesterday but rallied to close on it, and the question today is whether we are to expect a rally soon to retest the daily middle band as resistance (currently 2100 area and falling), or whether bears can manage a lower band ride into double top support at 2039. SPX daily chart:

I'm leaning towards the bounce scenario, as a falling wedge has formed from the 2020 high and broken up at the close yesterday afternoon. SPX may well retest yesterday's low, and might go a few handles lower, but that falling wedge should then deliver a bounce into at least the 2088 area, and possibly as high as 2100. SPX 5min chart:

I think the spring high is in but the falling wedge is strongly suggesting a rally before the next leg down. I like a retest of yesterday's low or a bit lower first but we may not see that.

A Moment of Truth

The trend day down yesterday broke the daily middle band and stopped at the 50 day MA. Support today is at the daily lower band at 2080 and the 2072.37 low. On a break below 2072.37 the spring high is most likely in, and the next big level would be double top support at 2039.69.Until we see that break below 2072.37 however, I'm still looking for the spring high in the one of the 2140 or 2170 areas. SPX daily chart:

Bonds have been falling even faster than I expected but there may be a rally coming shortly as falling wedge resistance for the current move was broken slightly at the highs yesterday. If that can follow through in the next day or two then we should see a decent rally. TLT 5min chart:

As I've been writing SPX has driven through the daily lower band and looks as though it may now make a run at the 2072.37 low. If that breaks then the spring high has most likely already been made. If we see a strong reversal start here then we should be starting a stronger move up than most we have seen recently.