Moveable Feasts

It is February 29th today, which is a day first introduced by Julius Caesar in his major calendar reforms in 49 BC. These were a massive improvement on the old Roman calendar where accumulated errors means that the calendar regularly went seasons out of sync, which wreaked havoc with the dating of their seasonal festivals particularly, as it's a strange thing to be celebrating mid-winter festivals in the summertime and vice-versa for the mid-summer festivals.

It's also a lesson about how the second mouse can often get the (kudos) cheese. Caesar's massive reform was superb, but still gained a day every 128 years, which had become obvious by the middle ages. Pope Gregory XIII tweaked the Julian Calendar slightly in 1582, removing three leap years every 400 years, a change of about 0.002% to Caesar's great reform, and the world then gradually moved from using the Julian Calendar to the almost identical Gregorian Calendar, which is now universally used across the West apart from in some Eastern Orthodox churches, who still use the Julian calendar to calculate the dates of some moveable feasts.

Julius Caesar still retains the month of July which he named, so Gregory didn't poach all the credit for the modern calendar from him, but if Julius hadn't been dead for some 2050 years now, I suspect he'd still be somewhat annoyed about the way that what is essentially his calendar is now credited to Pope Gregory XIII. That said this certainly wasn't the most shameless credit grab in history, that honor may go to Kim Jong-Il, who among many other things claimed to have invented the hamburger, though he's been given little credit for this and his many other legendary mythical achievements outside North Korea.

Moving on to the charts, the story today is all about the rising wedges that are on the charts for SPX, ES, NDX, NQ, RUT and TF. These are all decently formed patterns and I'll be watching with great interest here to see how these develop today.

SPX made a high on the 61.8% fib retrace target at 1963 on Friday morning and formed a clear bull flag for the rest of the day. That flag is suggesting either a retest of Friday's high this morning, and then a return to test rising wedge support, which closed Friday in the 1920 area, or on a conviction break above 1963 the full flag target would be in the 2118 area, within the 2000-20 strong resistance zone I've been mentioning most days recently. That would require all these wedges to break up though, and as I said, they are very decently formed patterns. SPX 60min chart:

Rising wedge support on ES is a match with SPX, coming in at the 1915 area at the time of writing. We'll see whether it hits. ES Mar 60min chart:

I didn't get to my weekend post about that very bullish stat that I posted on Friday morning, but I've changed my view on it after a closer inspection, and am planning to prepare the stats for that for tomorrow morning's post. What'll I'll say now though is that the stat is strongly supporting that the 2016 low has either been made or is close. I'd recommend not getting too married to the short side here and will be running through it in detail tomorrow.

IHS Breaking Up Now

There was a very interesting stat I saw yesterday that's worth a look, and you can see that here. It's looking at the big moves up from the low and the stat is a good illustration both of the power and the danger of these sort of stats. I don't disagree with the stat at all but I'm going to do a post at the weekend pointing out important details that can be missed on stats like these, notably in this case that a number of these instances were just before big declines. The stat does however support Stan and my main scenario here, which is that the final bull market high is not yet behind us but still ahead. I'll talk more about that in my weekend post as well.

Back in the short term SPX has now broken up from the IHS that I was looking at yesterday with a possible target back in the 2080 area. Does that mean that the bulls are back in the saddle? Not yet no as when these patterns fail they tend to fail just after the break up, which in this instance would be here and now. I'm watching to see if that happens here.  I have resistance at the 50% fib retrace target at 1963, and wedge resistance currently in the 1970 area. If we see a break back below wedge support, currently in the 1910 area, then the odds will be good that the IHS is failing and that a new leg down has started. SPX 60min chart:

Here's the setup in close-up, and showing the channel resistance that opens up the 2000-20 major resistance zone retest on a sustained break over wedge resistance. SPX 15min chart:

Here's the setup on ES, where wedge resistance was hit and slightly overthrown overnight. ES Mar 60min chart:

Could the bulls make it back to 2080 on this setup? Potentially yes. I mentioned that as a possibility on 17th February and it's obviously a stronger setup now. It isn't the most likely option yet in my view and there are two big possible fail areas on the way. We are testing the first of those today. I'm leaning short but as ever it can go the other way. Everyone have a great weekend. :-)

POMO Bear Trap and Another Inflection Point

Yesterday was a strange day to say the least. To start with SPX overshot the obvious H&S neckline by 11 handles, which weakened the H&S setup even though the bounce I was talking about yesterday morning then delivered in spades. That bounce was then apparently fuelled by the Fed unexpectedly reinstating $6bn of POMO that had previously been cancelled, and the bounce was a very strong squeeze that ran a very impressive 52 handles from low to high.

So what's the takeaway, apart from the obvious that as well as distorting the economy on the bigger picture, the Fed can also make trading tricky on an intraday basis?

Well on a pure technical basis there is a possible H&S forming here on SPX, but there is also a wedge turned rising channel established at the low yesterday, with a very nice looking alternate larger rising wedge in play with wedge resistance currently in the 1960 area, slightly under the ideal rally target in the 1963 area at the 50% fib retrace target. If SPX can break over current rally resistance at 1946/7, then that would be a very attractive short term target. SPX 60min chart:

That larger rising wedge looks very similar on the ES chart, with the addition that the overnight retracement formed a clear bull flag that has now broken up with alternate targets at either the retest of the globex high at 1938.50 or the full flag target in the 1970 area. If we see a sustained break over the globex high at 1938.50, then this setup is inviting a test of the (SPX) 50% fib retrace at 1959 ES and 1963 SPX. ES 60min chart:

I'm watching with interest what happens at the retest of the 1938.50 globex high on ES. On a hard rejection there a possible double top would be in place that would target a retest of the ES weekly pivot at 1904 on a break below the strong support/resistance level at 1918/9 ES. On a sustained break over 1938.5 ES and a new rally high then I'd be looking for that test of the 50% fib retrace level at 1963 SPX, which was always the obvious target for this rally in any case.

One last comment today. I've noted on the SPX 60min chart that there is now a mostly and very well formed IHS on SPX that would target the 2090 area on a break back over the 1955 SPX area. This would be an excellent fit with a test of the 50% fib at 1963 and a hard fail there. If SPX sustains trade over 1963 and targets the 61.8% fib retrace at 2000, then I'll be considering that IHS seriously as an alternate scenario. If SPX was to break back over strong resistance in the 2000-20 area at the 61.8% fib retrace target and above, then that IHS would become my main scenario. I'd be very surprised to see that happen, but I've been surprised before, and it needs to be mentioned as a possibility here.

Looking For A Reversal Pattern

SPX broke down yesterday and has fallen further overnight. What I'd like to see today is a bounce from the 1902 area back to backtest the 1930 area and form the right shoulder on an H&S that would then target the 1857 area on a break below the H&S neckline in the 1902 area. We'll see whether that plays out today.

Important support is at the hourly 50 MA at 1908, so if we are going to see that right shoulder bounce, I'd be looking for that from a low in the first hour, without too much time below that support level. SPX 60min chart:

Are there other options here? Yes, this could be an asymmetric double top and ES could then fall straight through that possible H&S neckline, which is at 1898 on ES. There is further support just below as well however at the daily middle band in the 1893 ES area (1897 on SPX), and that would need a solid break to kill off this support area. ES 60min chart:

Whatever happens this morning I'll be watching the 61.8% fib retrace in the 1861 SPX area when reached as possible support. On a conviction break below I'd be looking for a retest of the 1810 low and likely lower.

Fragile Looking Uptrend

ES has been on 60min sell signals for a while now, with three of them having fixed since the low, and none of those having yet made target. What's new today though is that on SPX there were 5min and 15min RSI 14 sell signals fixed yesterday, and a 60min RSI 14 sell signal brewing today. This uptrend could be ending here, and I'm watching rising wedge support, currently at 1935, as a break below would look very bearish now. SPX 15min chart:

Support is in the same sort of area on the ES chart, and I'd note the nicely formed possible double top setup that would fix on a sustained break below Friday's low at 1898. There are similar setups on NQ and TF. ES 60min chart:

Ideally I'd like to see SPX make the retest of the 50% fib retrace at 1963, but I'm concerned that this uptrend may be failing at the retest of the last rally high at 1947. If we do see a hard fail at this level, that might be bullish on the bigger picture, as this would be a fail at possible IHS neckline resistance.

Rally Targets

SPX retraced to the bare minimum 23.6% fib retracement on Friday while forming a bull flag. That bull flag broke up overnight, and if new rally highs are sustained this morning, SPX should be on the way to test either the 50% fib retracement at 1963 or the 61.8% fib retrace at 2000. SPX 15min chart:

When reached there is possible resistance at the last rally high in the 1947 area. That is a possible IHS neckline so a big reversal that could mean that an IHS is forming. SPX 60min chart:

The ideal high would be the 61.8% fib retrace test in the 2000 area. That would be a good match with a retest of the 100 week MA, currently at 2009. A test and fail there would be important bear market confirmation. Equally a test and sustained break there would likely open up a test of the all time high. If we see that test I'm expecting a fail but it's best to keep an open mind. SPX weekly chart:

Today is a cycle trend day, so there are 70% odds of either bulls or bears dominating trading today. If we are to see a trend day up then I'll be looking for an AM low, ideally in the 1930-5 area. If we are to see a trend day down then I'll be looking for an AM high, ideally in the 1945-50 area. I'm leaning long today.

Gravity Still An Issue Here

I was really wondering on Wednesday whether the normal rules for patterns and retracements had been temporarily suspended for this move, but yesterday's rising wedges broke down and we are seeing retracements now. The minimum target for this move on SPX should be the 23.6% fib retrace at 1902 (tested at the open) and I would normally expect SPX to at least test the 38.2% fib retrace area around 1885. I'm doubtful about SPX getting lower than 1885 but it is a cycle trend day today so in the event that we trend down the other fib retrace targets are in the 1870 and 1856 areas. SPX 15min chart:

The obvious retracement target on ES is the 38.2% fib retrace at 1884. the 23% target at 1903 has already been broken at the open. ES Mar 60min chart:

I'm expecting a retracement and then continuation higher high, though I could, as ever, be mistaken. That continuation upwards may not start happen today with up volume a tiny 10% at the open. If that persists we may well see a trend down day. I would warn that there are no obvious topping patterns on either SPX or Es here, so we could see one form. That could involve a retest of the highs this week of course. everyone have a great weekend. :-)

Sometimes They Come Back

There is a very clear target for an AM low this morning if we are to see an AM low and then continuation upwards today. At the time of writing that area is at 1912-4 ES, and that target is at the rising wedge support trendline from last Thursday's low. A break below there would open up a possible decent retracement but in this very bullish tape since last Thursday I won't be holding my breath waiting for that to happen. - TARGET TRENDLINE HIT WHILE WRITING POST. ES Mar 60min chart:

On the weekly chart I think that this move is returning to test the strong resistance in the 2000-20 area that was the obvious target for the last rally but was never reached. There is also an interesting H&S right shoulder possibility that I outline in the text on the chart below. SPX weekly chart:

A decent retracement is overdue here and if we see SPX break below the 1912 level then we could see that today. Failing that the next obvious target remains a retest of the last rally high at 1947.20.

Inflection Point Here

Equity markets ignored the sell signals yesterday and kept on going up. As we open this morning markets are now at a significant short term inflection point on ES, TF and NQ. The bear option is that all three are overthrowing rising wedges, which would then break down and retrace. That retrace would tell us a lot about the significance of last Thursday's low.

The bullish option is that all three are in rising channels, and that the obvious next target on SPX would be at a retest of the last rally high at 1947. We should see which way that's going to go this morning. I'm leaning towards the short option but if SPX can get back over 1920, then the bulls have likely won the inflection point.

ES Mar 60min chart:

TF Mar 60min chart:

NQ Mar 60min chart:

On the bigger picture if we do see a retest of the last rally high at 1947 SPX, then that is possible double bottom resistance, and if broken, that double bottom would target the 2084 area, with strong resistance in the 2000-20 area on the way. We aren't at that inflection point yet but the setup looks nice and I'm considering it seriously.

5dma Three Day Rule - Day Two

Futures ran up quite a bit yesterday and it's possible that the low on Thursday was a very significant low. I'd give the odds of that being the case at 45% here, and we should find out by the close on Wednesday where that is the case, or whether there are new lows coming.

The Russell 2000 has been leading the decline, so I'll lead with the TF chart today which, as with ES, NQ and CL, is showing a fixed 60min sell signal. Short term we should see at least a retracement here, ideally from a decent AM high. TF Mar 60min chart:

On the RUT daily chart I drew in a falling channel a while back and more downside depends on breaking that channel. The low on Thursday was at a test of channel support and if that holds and short term channel resistance is broken then we could see a big rally into channel resistance. RUT daily chart:

On SPX there is now a very decently formed possible double bottom and on a break over the rally high that would have a target back in the 2084 area. To open up the lower targets support in the 1810-2 area needs to break. SPX daily chart:

SPX broke back over the 5dma at the close on Friday, and if we see a close back below the 5dma today or tomorrow then we'll retest the lows and likely make lower lows. The 5dma is currently at 1856. We'll see how far this retracement can get.

Dead Cat Bounce Targets

Half-term has started here and I was out with my daughter this morning so I'm running a bit late. I'm just going to show the futures charts this morning as I think they are telling the story best. These are the ES, NQ and TF bonus charts that I posted at theartofchart.net this morning.

On ES an IHS has broken up with a target in the 1870 area. That's a match with the 61.8% fib retrace target at 1871 and a possible match with a currently theoretical falling channel resistance trendline, but that wouldn't be in range until at least Sunday night without a break over the 1871 61.8% fib target and the last short term high at 1874. ES Mar 60min chart:

On NQ an IHS has broken up with a target in the 4050 area. I have decent resistance in the 4100 area. NQ Mar 60min chart:

On TF an IHS has broken up with a target in the 980 area and I have strong resistance in the 984 area. TF Mar 60min chart:

These are decent patterns and I'm expecting them to play out. Hopefully some of you caught my warning on twitter last night that we might see this rally. It is now in progress. The IHS target on SPX is at 1861 and I'd expect to see that target made at minimum. Obviously this is a counter-trend bounce so longs need to be used with caution. In my view this rally is primarily setting up the next short entries.

Stan and I did a webinar on trading triangles yesterday. If you want to see the recording of that webinar then you can find that on this page here. Everyone have a great weekend! :-)

The Bear Flags Broke Down

The bear flag megaphone on SPX hadn't broken down at the close last night but is very likely to at the open this morning. Overnight ES has already tested and slightly exceeded the August low at 1804.25. The downtrend has resumed. SPX 60min chart:

The main target for this leg down is rising support from the March 2009 low, shown on the weekly chart below and in the 1750-60 area. This is a possible 2016 low area and a major inflection point. Bulls want to test it and reverse back up there to new all time highs. Bears want to find support before a hit (leaving unfinished business and strongly suggesting a break on the next test) or to break down through it. SPX weekly chart:

On the ES chart the next obvious target is a hit of falling megaphone support in the 1785 area. I'm wondering about a possible retest of broken flag support in the 1835-40 area before the move to that support trendline. ES Mar 60min chart:

Expecting a bearish day today and looking for an AM high that fails.

A couple of announcements. Stan and I did a free to all Chart Chat on Sunday 7th Feb and if you want to see the recording for that you can find it here. We are also doing a free to all webinar on trading triangles after the close tonight, and you can find the link to sign up for that on the same page.

I'm having screencast problems this morning. The expanded version of the charts will be added ASAP.

Retesting the Neckline

The rally from Monday's low has proved to have some legs, and came close to retesting the H&S neckline yesterday. At the high yesterday a perfect bear flag rising channel was established and my lean here is that the H&S neckline at 1872 is likely to be respected on any retest, and that the obvious next significant move should be down. SPX 60min chart:

As ever it's possible this might go the other way of course and there is a possible double bottom alternative on the ES chart that would target the 1892 ES (1897 SPX) area on a clear break back over the H&S neckline at 1872 SPX. At the moment I'm seeing that as a possibility rather than a probability though. ES Mar 60min chart:

Today is the last of the three cycle trend days this week. Yesterday was an inside day in the end and my lean today is to see continuation downwards. If this goes the other way instead the first sign will be a break back over the H&S neckline at 1872. If we are to see continuation down today then I'll be looking for an AM high that fails.

After the H&S Breakdown

The H&S on SPX broke down yesterday with alternate targets at a retest of 1812 and 1797. I'm not seeing any reason to think that we won't at least see a retest of 1812 and given that today is also a cycle trend day, it's very possible that we see that target made today. SPX 60min chart:

I saw this chart on a post at businessinsider.com this morning and capped it to look at the pattern setup. Very nice falling channel on global equities here, and global markets are still quite some way above channel support. Global Equities Chart:

As long as SPX respects broken H&S neckline support at 1872 today I'm looking lower. For today an AM high that fails hard would be good to see.

Stormy Monday

The main pattern I'm watching this morning is of course the H&S that formed on SPX last week. I called it as a possibility on Wednesday morning, and the H&S completed forming at the low on Friday. With SPX currently over 20 handles down from the close on Friday this could be a breakaway gap through support, in which case the key resistance levels to watch this morning are the retest of the H&S neckline at 1872, and the opening gap from Friday's close at 1880.05 should not be filled. SPX 15min chart:

I now have a decent looking falling channel from 2081 on SPX and I'm looking for at least a retest of the 1812 low next, and likely lower. SPX daily chart:

The main downside target here is rising support from the March 2009 low in the 1760 area, and that is a possible significant low area from which a new all time high could be made. A break below that trendline opens up the possible 1600 retest target that I've mentioned regularly. I'll be watching that carefully. SPX weekly chart:

I'm expecting to see a retest of the 1812 low this week and as today is a cycle trend day, with 70% odds of being dominated either buy buyers or sellers, we could potentially see that test today or tomorrow. Unless SPX heads straight down from the open I'm looking for an AM high that fails today and then more downside.

Holiday in Denmark

SPX just kicked around without any definite direction yesterday and so far today the same again, though we be starting to resolve down. This sideways again is neither bullish nor bearish, and is a decent fit with both the H&S and larger IHS scenario marked on the 60min chart below.

What is potentially interesting here is key support on the 50 hour MA, with that currently at 1909 and SPX at 1890 at the time of writing. If bears can convert that into resistance, having been support all yesterday, then we may resolve in the obvious direction, which is down. SPX 60min chart:

I've marked the ES resistance levels on the chart but there's only one serious support level on the chart below and that is at rising channel / bear flag support, currently at 1877 on ES, so about 1882/3 on SPX. ES Mar 60min chart:

The very obvious direction is down here, into a retest of 1812 and then further down, but this rally from the 1812 SPX low has not definitely finished yet so shorts should still be cautious here, at least until 1877 ES is broken.

Still Ambiguous

My speculation yesterday morning that SPX might well retest the ES weekly pivot at 1909 from the ES low for the day at 1865 proved to be right, and the possible H&S that I was speculating about in the morning has now made an ideal right shoulder high. You can see the setup on the 15min chart below. If this pattern completes and breaks down, then we should see the retest of the 1812 low in the next couple of weeks. SPX 15min chart:

Down is very much the obvious direction here, as the rising wedge that formed from the low is an obvious bear flag on the bigger picture. If the H&S completes and breaks down then the first target is the retest of the 1812 low, and on a sustained break below, the full flag target would be in the 1690 area, though there is strong support in the 1750-60 area at the rising support trendline from the March 2009 low.

What I would very much note here is that a move to retest 1950 SPX would complete a possible IHS that would target a retest of 2080. That's really not the obvious option here, but if we should see a break over the current rally high, I would be taking this IHS seriously, though there would still be major resistance in the 2000-20 area. SPX 60min chart:

If we should see a break up today then key closing resistance is at the 5dma, currently in the 1917 area, and almost exactly at yesterday's high. A closing break back over this today would be cautiously bullish. SPX daily 5dma chart:

Also potentially bullish here is that ES established a rising channel at the low yesterday, and TF did the same. Until ES breaks this channel then there is obviously potential for the next target to be at channel resistance, currently in the 1960-70 area. The two important resistance levels to watch here are the ES weekly pivot at 1909 (1915 SPX area) and the ES monthly pivot at 1925 (1931 SPX area). If those levels can be broken and converted into support then the bullish scenario here has a serious shot. Until that happens the obvious lean is continuation down. ES Mar 60min chart:

Today is another cycle trend day, so there are 70% odds of the day being dominated by buyers or sellers. The ES action overnight isn't encouraging for bulls so far, and it this is going to resolve down today then I'll be looking for an AM high that fails.

Old and New News

Some days things happen so fast after the open that by the time I get my post up much of the post is already out of date. This is one of those days. On the charts below I outlined a possible bull scenario and assigned it a possibly overgenerous 25% probability weighting. That is a lot lower now as the overnight rally failed hard at the ES weekly pivot at 1909, which was the key support level I gave on ES yesterday morning.

On the plus side I shorted the obvious resistance at 1909 ES and my runner from that trade is currently +33 or so, so I'll keep my grumbling to a minimum.

On the bear scenario the rising wedge rally from the 1812 low broke down yesterday after an ideal 50% fib retracement of the falling megaphone from 2081, and as that rising wedge was a bear flag on the bigger picture. the alternate targets for the bear flag are either a retest of the 1812 January low, or the full flag target in the 1690 area. The high this morning was a perfect retest and hard fail at broken rising wedge / flag support. SPX 60min chart:

 The high this morning was at the retest of the 1909 weekly pivot that was key support yesterday and that was a very impressive rejection there. That said I do have a possible H&S neckline for a reversal pattern here in an ideal  1870-5 area, and if a bull can be located that is willing to buy something this morning, I had pencilled in a possible rally from here with an ideal high at that weekly pivot area, so it's still possible with the current low for the day at 1865 that we could see that bounce today. ES Mar 60min chart:

Today is a cycle trend day, which means that there are 70% odds that the day will be dominated by either buyers or sellers. The sellers have made an impressive start and unless bulls can rally back over the 1890 SPX area my working assumption is that the market will trend down today. If bulls can rally back over there then the ideal right shoulder high on the possible H&S that would be forming would be in the 1915 area.

Testing Key Support

SPX had a strong day yesterday but has given it all up overnight. 15min RSI 14 and 60min RSI 5 sell signals are brewing and may well fix this morning. This is a possible rally high, especially as SPX tested the 50% fib retrace target at the high yesterday.

The important support levels on SPX this morning are rising support in the 1910 area and the 50 hour MA in the 1905 area. If SPX breaks below those levels then the rally bear flag has broken and the first big target is a retest of the January low at 1812. While those levels hold SPX still has a shot at reaching the 61.8% fib retrace target at 1978. SPX 60min chart:

On ES we are seeing a retest of broken triangle resistance at 1912, and the globex low was at the weekly pivot at 1909. If 1909 is broken and converted into resistance then again, the next leg down has likely started. ES Mar 60min chart:

If support holds this morning we can still see new highs on this rally. If it breaks then the overall downtrend has likely resumed.

Some More Upside Likely

SPX failed to get back to 1990 by the January close, so I'm calling this year for the bears on my first three days of January stat. I outlined this setup on 7th January and you can see that post here. Of the six years in the last 43 years where this stat has fixed at the end of January the best two performers were up 3% and 1%, last year was marginally red, and the remaining three were down 10%, 11% and 39% (2008) respectively. The odds are now against anything better than a flat close this year.

In the short term ES has broken up from an ascending triangle and I'm expecting broken resistance at 1912 ES (~1917/8 SPX) to be retested this morning. That might not happen as it has already been retested overnight, but we'll see. The full triangle target is in the 2020 area, but these are bad at making target and Bulkowski recommends using a target at 61% of the full target. That would put this target in the 1978 area, which may well still be overambitious. ES Mar 60min chart:

There is still a 60min buy signal that has not yet made the full target and I'm expecting that to be made. I like the IHS target at 1970 SPX as a target and that should be in the right range for a rally high this week. SPX 60min chart:

I posted a number of possible resistance areas on Friday morning and SPX closed at one of them, which was possible channel resistance at 1940. I'm not expecting that to hold but if we see a break back below 1910 SPX this morning I'd be wary of buying dips today. SPX daily chart:

Today is the first trading day of February and the historic stats are about 70% bullish. I'm expecting to see a green close today. This is just a counter-trend rally though, so if we see a hard break down that should be respected.