- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Wednesday, 27 December 2017

Three Wise Patterns Bearing Gifts Of Volatility

I hope everyone had a great holiday and so far this week the tape has been pretty tedious. However I bring glad tidings, as the pattern setup here says that is likely to be changing in the near future. I've included my full premarket video today just to show that even with interesting things likely to start happening on equity indices, there are still more interesting things happening on many other markets this week. The equity indices section is at the start of the video, followed by quick looks at DX, CL, NG, HG, GC, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW EURUSD, GBPUSD, JPYUSD, CADUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD. Enjoy! Intraday Video - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
On the ES chart the boring chop of the last few days has resolved into a clear triangle. This leans bullish and on a break up over triangle resistance at 2693/4 ES should then at minimum retest the all time high. ES Mar 60min chart:
On the NQ chart the less boring decline over the last few days has resolved into a clear bull flag channel, and on a break and conversion of weekly pivot just under 6500 NQ should then at minimum retest the all time high. NQ Mar 60min chart: 
On the TF chart the boring chop of the last few days has resolved into a clear triangle. This leans bullish and on a break up over triangle resistance at 1555 TF should then at minimum retest the all time high. There is still an open double bottom target at the same retest. TF Mar 60min chart: 
These three retests may reject into three small double tops so I'll be watching them carefully. Stan and I are doing free public webinars at theartofchart.net after the closes today and tomorrow looking at the outlooks in 2018 for indices, currencies and bonds (today) and metals, energies and other commodities (tomorrow). If you'd like to attend you can register for those here.

Wednesday, 20 December 2017

Return To Santa, Address Unknown

I'm definitely in a holiday mood this week. That's not really due to declining workload, by the time I finish today I'll have published between 55 and 60 charts and three videos, but nonetheless the holidays are in the air and I'm feeling festive.

Santa has been AWOL for a couple of days on the indices though, and while I'm expecting this to resolve up into high retests we are starting to run a little short of time this week. Intraday Video - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
RUT 60min chart:
Old gold:

Tuesday, 19 December 2017

Probably A Dip To Buy

I was seeing a possibility of a retracement  last night and was talking about that this morning in my premarket vid. The 60min sell signals on ES and NQ have made target but there is a strong case on NQ for a hit of a wedge support trendline currently in the 6460 area and that has not yet been hit. On TF this is likely to be a pullback to establish a rising support trendline before the high probability retest of the all time high, though obviously this is a big news bomb week. Intraday Video - Update on ES, NQ and TF
Here is the double bottom setup on RUT/TF shown on RUT. The action from yesterday's high looks like a bull flag forming, and most likely that's exactly what it is. RUT 60min chart:
If you are enjoying these intraday video updates you can see those earlier by subscribing to our YouTube channel for The Art Of Chart. I tend to be uploading these an hour or so before the posts as the posts take extra time to prepare.

There is a lot of news this afternoon and tomorrow. Be wary.

Monday, 18 December 2017

Twas The Week Before Xmas

A strong start to the week, and we're likely to see at least some more upside, as the double bottom on RUT/TF that I was looking at on Friday has broken up with a target at a retest of the all time highs. I'm expecting that target to be hit. NQ is testing the trendline resistance I gave last week, and may break up to a higher one. ES is close to the 2700 test and on a break above I have a resistance trendline in the 2711 area. Intraday Video - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
RUT daily chart:
The ATH retest on RUT/TF may well be a short term high, and we are looking at a retracement starting soon running into the Jan 9th area. With the low volume holiday tape though I'd note that the only remaining day in 2017 with a strong bearish lean will be the last trading day of December.

Friday, 15 December 2017

RUT - The Sleeping Giant Awakens?

Back to back reversal trend days which we haven't seen in a while, and NQ has now made the new ATH that Stan and I were looking for. My video was moved from premarket to just before midday this morning, as a big Windows 10 update took my media computer hostage for several hours and I had to wait for that to finish. Here is the section on ES, SPX, NQ and TF. Intraday Video - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
What I've been looking at since I did the video is the very interesting setup on RUT here, as it had barely moved all week before moving down yesterday to break the last low and the daily middle band. That lower low was on positive RSI divergence and at the close today RUT may well fix a daily RSI 5 buy signal, with a full rejection candle today against yesterday's decline and a nice little double bottom setup that on a sustained break over 1533 looks for in effect a full retest of the all time high. If that delivers then we may well see NQ make my resistance trendline in the 6530 area and a test on ES of 2700 before the December high, which we are expecting sometime next week. RUT daily chart:
TGIF. Everyone have a great weekend :-)

Thursday, 14 December 2017

Candidate 2017 Highs Made

Surprisingly interesting action on SPX/ES today and the possible 2017 highs on SPX and NDX that Stan and I are looking for in the next three or four days may already be in. Intraday Video - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
On the SPX daily chart the resistance trendline from 2016 is holding so far and a strong RSI 5 / NYMO daily sell signal may fix at the close today if we don't see a significant rally before the close. SPX daily chart:
Stan and I are doing a free public webinar tonight looking at AAPL, AMZN, FB, NFLX, TSLA and six assorted sector stocks an hour after the close tonight. If you'd like to see it you can register for that here

Tuesday, 12 December 2017

Santa With Some Reservations

Looking at the shorter term charts there are some signs that we might see a retracement, though with Fed tomorrow any retracement may need to wait until then. There is a possible case for NQ to backtest the weekly pivot at 6344. Intraday Video - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
On the SPX daily chart I've been showing the possible bigger picture resistance trendline being tested and that's still being tested, on quite a bit of negative RSI divergence. Significantly higher targets on RSI require at least a temporary break of that trendline. SPX daily chart:
The Fed tomorrow are an obvious potential market mover obviously, and quadruple witching expiry this week argues against any serious move until next week. Seasonality argues against any serious retracement in the next two weeks until Xmas is out of the way.

Friday, 8 December 2017

Winter Is Here

A modest storm by US standards is passing over the UK. We have enough snow for a modest selection of snowballs, and I'm planning a quiet weekend in, relaxing while doing no more than an absolute maximum of seventy charts and three videos before Monday. I might light a nice coal fire if the snow lasts.

Intraday Video - Update on ES, NQ & TF:
So are we starting a B wave down from this area? Possibly and for that I'll be watching the open gap from 6316.28 on NDX. If that is filled then the gap over resistance on NQ this morning was not a breakaway gap, and we may be starting a new leg down. NDX daily chart:
Everyone have a great weekend. :-)

Thursday, 7 December 2017

When The Going Gets Tough

I've been struggling to get my morning posts out in recent months, and that's because my workload at theartofchart.net is substantial and still growing. Every morning before the open I update and publish charts on nineteen different futures and forex instruments and record a premarket video looking at all of those. This must be my main priority.

A possible solution I am looking at is to clip the equity indices section from that premarket video, and post that with a chart or two before or near the open. This should allow me to get back to doing these free posts on indices every morning which I'd like. Trying that out today. Tell me what you think.

SPX is approaching channel support now in the 2621 area and that is a match with rising support on ES. I'd be surprised if that wasn't tested and that could break at that test, though I'd prefer to see it hold. SPX 60min chart:
Interesting setup across ES, NQ and TF today that I look at in the video. ES and TF still working the channels that I posted on my twitter at Friday lunchtime last week, and they have been great performers so far. Premarket video excerpt - Equity Indices:
If the video isn't loading, then the direct link to it is here. I'll be uploading it to YouTube tomorrow and trying that instead of the direct upload I tried today.

Tell me what you think of the new format. Considering doing this every morning to get back into a workable daily routine on the blog.

Friday, 1 December 2017

December Begins

Stan and I are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat at theartofchart.net at 4pm EST on Sunday. We'll be looking at the usual wide range of equity indices, bonds, precious metals, energies and commodities and if you'd like to attend you can register for that on our December Free Webinars page.

After the spike up at the start of the week I noted the clear break over the previous wedge resistance on SPX, and mentioned that the next decent candidate trendline was in the 2650 area. That was a slightly low estimate as that trendline was tested at the high yesterday at 2657.74, rather sooner than I was expected. At the first test SPX has rejected from it. SPX daily chart:
So where does that leave SPX/ES? Well my confidence in the bears has rarely been lower than it is here at the start of a historically bullish month at the end of a very bullish year, but that is a potentially significant trendline resistance test and I'm watching this with interest.

On ES the rising channel I was looking at in the short video on Wednesday was resistance at the first highs yesterday morning, then broke up, and broken channel resistance was support in the afternoon after the rejection from the high. A small rising megaphone formed on that move and broke down overnight. This looks like a possible short term high, and a topping pattern may be forming, and I'm wondering about a retest of yesterday's high today or Monday to make the second high of a modest double top. ES Dec 60min chart:
While ES and TF have been making new all time highs NQ has very weak, and yesterday NQ was rallying from a hard decline the day before. That rally has found resistance so far at the weekly pivot at 6374. If that continues to hold as resistance today then NQ should start another leg down into the 6200 - 30 area. If it breaks and converts to support then the obvious target would be a retest of the all time high. NQ Dec 60min chart:
On TF a clear rising wedge has formed from the November low and broke down overnight. There is already an open target in the 1522 area from an only middling quality H&S, but if equities have a strong day today then TF could retest the high to make the second high of a small double top. TF Dec 60min chart:
The historical stats for December are firmly bullish, but the stats today are only neutral. The overall setup leans bearish but we may well need high retests first, and it's worth remembering how many bearish leaning setups have failed in 2017 to date. Everyone have a great weekend. :-)

Tuesday, 28 November 2017

Breaking Up Isn't Hard To Do In 2017

Bears really haven't made a significant impression on equity indices this year and, statistically, there's not much reason to think that might change in the last month of the year. One key trendline that I have been watching is the very decent looking rising wedge resistance from the 2016 low and that has broken up with some confidence today. That could still be a bearish overthrow, but that seems doubtful. More likely SPX is heading to test the next decent trendline option, currently in the 2650 area. SPX daily chart:
In the shorter term the rising wedge from the August low is likely expanding into a larger pattern. I've drawn in the three most likely resistance trendlines and the first two are bracketing the 2640 area. We'll see what happening when they are reached. Possible hourly RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals are now brewing. SPX 60min chart:
On RUT I'm watching a possible rising wedge with wedge resistance currently in the 1545 area. RUT 60min chart:
Where is all this going? That's hard to say but with the exception of the last trading day of November on Thursday there are no historically bearish leaning days left in 2017 until the last trading day of December. There may not be a significant pullback before January.

Stan and I are doing our last free webinar at theartofchart.net in November an hour after the close on Thursday and that will be looking at using pivot systems in day and swing trading. If you'd like to see that you can register on our November Free Webinars page. Our first free webinar in December is on Sunday and that will be our monthly public Chart Chart. We'll be looking at the usual very wide range of trading instruments across indices, forex, commodities etc. If you'd like to see that then you can register for that on our December Free Webinars page.

Wednesday, 22 November 2017

Thanksgiving Week

For some reason Thanksgiving never made it as a national holiday in the UK, possibly because England was feeling a little sour after only winning a nonetheless hard won second place in The War Of Independence, but I certainly always enjoy it, and various branches of my family have had a long and storied history with the US over the last few centuries, so I feel that I am a sort of  honorary american. Some of those were descended from my great (x) grandfather Stephanus Van Cortlandt, who became the first native born mayor of New York in 1667, born in the city when it was still called New Amsterdam. On another branch of my family tree the lyrics of The Spar Spangled Banner were written by Francis Scott Key while a prisoner on the flagship of my great great great great grandfather Vice Admiral Sir Alexander Cochrane in 1814. The White House is called the White House because it was repainted white after being captured and burned by troops under Admiral Cochrane's command in the war of 1812. Interesting days for all I'm sure    ....... unlike the remainder of this week most likely.  :-)

On Monday I was looking at the seven week bull flag megaphone on RUT and that broke up yesterday into the minimum flag target at the full retest of the all time high. At the same time both SPX and NDX made new all time highs. So what now?

Well the stats do not favor the bears for what remains of this week, the dog end of today and the half day on Friday, and as I mentioned on Monday, the only remaining two days with a significant bearish lean in 2017 are the last trading day of November and December.

That said, this is obviously a possible double top setup on RUT, and an RSI 5 sell signal has fixed on the hourly chart, with an RSI 14 sell signal brewing. I'm doubtful about a significant high but RUT could well deliver a modest retracement over the remainder of the week. RUT 60min chart:
On the SPX hourly chart there is a decent rising wedge forming from 2557.45 and the next obvious target would be wedge support, currently in the 2593/4 area. SPX 60min chart:
On the daily SPX chart I'd note that the new all time highs are retesting the decent wedge resistance trendline from the early 2016 low. Obviously this is a decent potential resistance area. SPX daily chart:
I'm doubtful about bears managing anything of significance over the remainder of this week, but there's a lot of resistance here and close above. It may well be that nothing of any interest is going to happen on equities until next week now.

We are running a Black Friday sale at theartofchart.net through this week with 20% off the usual prices for annual memberships. If you're interested then the coupon code is BlackFriday. If you'd just like to see some amazing testimonials just scroll down the home page.

Monday, 20 November 2017

The Falling Megaphone on RUT

A very key pattern that I've been watching here for direction is the likely falling megaphone on RUT.This has been a slow developer and has now been forming for an impressive seven weeks. Assuming that this is indeed a falling megaphone then the next target within the megaphone is megaphone resistance, now in the 1511 area, with the main remaining obstacle on the way at the monthly pivot, at 1500 even and tested at the highs today. 

Assuming that this is that falling megaphone, then that falling megaphone is a high probability bull flag pattern, and when that breaks up the minimum target will be a retest of the all time high at 1514.4.If that retest can be kept to a marginal higher high then that is the bears' next decent shot at a larger retracement, though seasonality makes it questionable that we would see that retracement in what remains of 2017. RUT 60min chart: 
A bull flag channel has already broken up on SPX and has backtested broken flag channel resistance on Friday and Monday. The retest of the ATH is a high probability target, supported as well by the falling wedge that has broken up on the RSI 14 with a high probability target at the 70 level on the RSI 14. I'm expecting the ATH retest on SPX close to the ATH retest on RUT on the performance of each from last week's low. SPX 60min chart: 
On the daily chart SPX has also been backtesting the daily middle band as support and that's holding so far. As long as that remains the case on a daily close basis then the next target is the daily upper band, currently slightly above the all time high at 2597.02. SPX daily chart: 
This is likely to be a low volume holiday week and we may not see a lot of movement, but the next main targets should be these all time high retests, and any dip on the way there should be a buy. When we see those retests we'll see what happens, but I'd note that the only remaining days in 2017 with a significant historical bearish bias are the last trading days of November and December. 

We are running a Black Friday sale at theartofchart.net through this week with 20% off the usual prices for annual memberships. If you're interested then the coupon code is BlackFriday. 

Friday, 17 November 2017

Janus Flags

The Janus flag setup I was looking at on Wednesday delivered yesterday and I'll talk a little more about these today as they are relatively common and worth remembering.

In this case on SPX what appears to be a high quality H&S has formed and broken down towards a target in the 2635 area. In truth though, as shown on the chart below, a perfect bull flag channel has also formed, which broke up yesterday with a strong minimum target at a retest of the all time high.

What were the tells here? The RSI divergence buy signals and lack of topping patterns on the hourly NQ and TF, and the channel/wedge shaped decline on SPX. A classic example of this kind of continuation flag is a break below the reversal pattern support and then rejection from there breaking declining resistance from the high, and that is what we have seen here.

These are very useful patterns and I've named them Janus Flags after the roman god with two faces. Janus is the god of gates / doorways / transitions, and has two faces because he is always looking simultaneously backward and forward in time, not unlike a technical analyst actually, so he might well be considered the patron god of TA. :-)

SPX 60min chart:
On the SPX daily chart the RSI 5 sell signal made target and the RSI 14 sell signal has found support for the moment at the 50 level on RSI 14. What is often seen in this situation is a higher high on price with another lower high on RSI before another and probably stronger retracement. SPX daily chart:
The ES, NQ and TF futures charts below were done before the RTH open for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. If you are interested in trying our services a 30 day free trial is available here.

ES broke up from the flag wedge yesterday with a minimum target at a retest of the all time high. The weekly pivot at 2579 was support overnight and is being tested as support this morning. On a break below the next support would be broken flag wedge resistance, now at 2573/4. ES Dec 60min chart:
The bull flag wedge broke up yesterday on NQ and reached the minimum flag target at the full retest of the all time high. I'm not seeing any obvious reason to expect NQ to reject hard there, but obviously this is a potential double top setup. NQ Dec 60min chart:
TF did pick up the pace yesterday and I still like this setup as an overall bull flag megaphone forming. If so the next target within the megaphone would be megaphone resistance currently in the 1515 area. If that isn't the case then the 61.8% fib retracement of the falling wedge that broke up there yesterday is obvious possible resistance. TF Dec 60min chart:
NQ and TF reached obvious resistance levels yesterday, but the ES/SPX target to retest the all time high is a strong target that I'd expect to see reached 90% of the time, so my lean is that ES/SPX reach that target after this small pullback and likely that also pulls NQ and TF through immediate resistance.

Support today on ES is at the weekly pivot at 2579.1 and broken flag resistance in the 2773/4 area. Support on SPX is at the 50 hour MA at 2580, being tested at the moment, and the daily middle band at 2578. A break with any confidence below the daily middle band today would add considerable weight to the bear scenario here.

Next week is a holiday week and I'd note that the only remaining days this year with a historically significant bearish lean are the last trading day of November and December. Everyone have a great weekend :-)

Wednesday, 15 November 2017

Waiting For A Break

The daily RSI 14 sell signal that I was looking at yesterday fixed at the close, and there are now fixed daily RSI 5 and RSI 14 sell signals on both SPX and ES, though the SPX RSI 5 sell signal may well reach target at the close today. SPX daily chart:
At the open this morning the H&S that I was looking at on ES yesterday broke down with a target in the 2532 area. On the chart below is the even higher quality SPX version, which broke down with a target in the 2535 area, before rallying back over the neckline. At this point there are only two high probability options. The first option is that SPX/ES head down to those targets, the second option is that the setup fails, and we see a fast return to the all time high, and that reversal would generally occur shortly after the pattern support break. SPX 60min chart
If we do see that reversal, then that would be something that I call a Janus flag, which is a kind of flag that looks like a topping pattern until that pattern fails, but is in fact something else. In this case there is a decent argument that all of ES, NQ and TF are in fact forming falling wedges that would normally be forming as bull flags. It may be that the reason that the only decent topping pattern is on SPX/ES is that all time high retests are needed to form topping patterns on NQ and TF as well.

The alternate option to that though is that the falling wedges are the topping patterns on NQ and TF, and that they will take the lower probability 30% option to break down delivering high quality targets below. That makes the setup here a simple one.

On ES wedge support is now in the 2555 area, slightly under monthly pivot at 2556.8. A sustained break below looks for first the H&S target at 2532, and then the wedge target in the 2515 area. Wedge resistance is now in the 2579 area, crossing the weekly pivot at 2579.1. A sustained break above looks for that all time high retest. ES Dec 60min chart:
On NQ wedge support is now in the 6230 area. A sustained break below looks for the wedge target in the 6110 area, slightly below rising support from the September low, currently in the 6125-30 area and the obvious target for a retracement here. Wedge resistance is now in the 6310 area, slightly above the weekly pivot at 6301.2. A sustained break above looks for that all time high retest. NQ Dec 60min chart:
On TF wedge support is now in the 1454 area, and broke down slightly in what may have been a bullish underthrow this morning. A sustained break below looks for 1390 area, where there is some established support at the early September low. Wedge resistance is now in the 1475 area, slightly under the weekly pivot at 1479.6. A sustained break above may looks for an all time high retest, though TF would need to pick up the pace a bit to deliver that. TF Dec 60min chart:
This should be a straightforward either/or scenario, and if it resolves up then the ATH retests on Es and NQ may well be the second highs of slightly larger double tops. We'll see how it goes.

Stan and I are doing a free webinar at theartofchart.net after the close tomorrow looking at AAPL, AMZN, FB, NFLX and TSLA. If you'd like to attend that you can register for it on our November Free Webinars Page.

Tuesday, 14 November 2017

A Lot Of Sell Signals

There are a lot of open sell signals on the SPX & ES charts here. On SPX there is still a strong RSI 5 / NYMO sell signal that could reach target today on a weak close. If we see that weak close the possible RSI 14 sell signal brewing here would likely fix. SPX daily chart:
On the ES daily chart both RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals have fixed. This has happened twice in the last year and on the first occasion delivered a retracement from 2390 to 2312.75, and on the second occasion delivered a retracement from 2486.25 to 2419.25. The obvious rising support trendlines on SPX are now in the 2520 and 2460 areas and this setup looks promising into at least a test of the first of those support trendlines. ES daily chart:
The ES, NQ and TF futures charts below were done before the RTH open for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. If you are interested in trying our services a 30 day free trial is available here.

So is the short term high in? Well there's a very decently formed possible H&S forming on the ES hourly chart and that may deliver, though there are open shorter term 60min buy signals on all of the ES, NQ and TF charts that may need some more upside before a likely larger retracement. Key resistance on ES is at 2586/7 and the weekly pivot is at 2579.1. ES Dec 60min chart:
There is no obvious topping pattern on NQ and if the weekly pivot at 2579.1 can be converted to support then a retest of the all time high could establish a double top to take NQ lower. NQ Dec 60min chart:
TF has been retracing for over five weeks now but has the most potentially bullish looking chart, because the obvious read on TF is that a smaller falling wedge is forming within a larger falling megaphone that would likely be a bull flag on the bigger picture before an eventual retest of the all time high. This setup invalidates on a break down below trendline support, currently in the 1456 area. A retest of the weekly pivot at 1479.6 would mean that falling wedge resistance had broken up. TF Dec 60min chart:
One way or the other we should see at least a modest retracement soon.

Stan and I are doing a free webinar at theartofchart.net after the close on Thursday looking at AAPL, AMZN, FB, NFLX & TSLA. If you'd like to attend that you can register for it on our November Free Webinars Page.

Monday, 6 November 2017

An Inverse Correlation To Depend On

We did the monthly free public Chart Chat at theartofchart.net yesterday, and if you missed that the recording is posted on the November Free Webinars page here.

We were asked a question about a correlation there, and I remarked that I don't think most correlations are worth much. If you think USD is going down and therefore gold should go up, then it's best to cut out the middleman and just short USD. That's not to say however that there aren't some striking correlations around.

As part of her ongoing campaign to make me feel old and decrepit my daughter has found herself a job, and while she was going to that job on Saturday morning she was astonished to find a group of enthusiastic Flat Earthers sharing the ... um .... flat news in the city centre. It appears that Chester is a major centre for these hardcore traditionalists, meaning that there appear to be at least five of them,  and they have a website with reasonably grammatical sentences and so on here. It's certainly an interesting read and they seem very passionate about their beliefs.

This brought two things to mind for me. The first is that, as I have mentioned before, the search for intelligent life on Earth is at an early stage, and doesn't appear to be going that well. The second thing is that I've often noted before that there seems to be a strong inverse correlation between the passion devoted to a cherished belief, and the amount of rational thought that has gone into forming that belief. That at least is a correlation that seems fairly dependable.

This was their main leaflet that my daughter brought back from this interesting experience. It certainly evokes some thought-provoking insights about human psychology, if nothing else. Further details on this fascinating global conspiracy can be found here. I didn't get a chance to listen to the flat earth music but I have no reason to doubt that it will be at least as impressive as the literature.
Moving back to the markets SPX is at decent trendline resistance, with a strong daily RSI 5 / NYMO sell signal fixed and a possible daily RSI 14 sell signal brewing. Is it going to turn? Possibly, though the bear side really needs to show us something before they can be taken seriously. A break below the weekly pivot and conversion to resistance would be a start. On SPX that is at 2580.80. SPX daily chart:
Trendline resistance has been broken on NDX and the next obvious trendline resistance on the daily chart is in the 6400 area. NDX daily chart:
RUT has been in a likely bull flag retracement for five weeks now and this should end with at least a full retest of the all time high. It may be that no meaningful retracement on the indices can be seen before that happens. I first said that about three weeks ago I think, and it's still likely to be the case. RUT daily chart:
So could this market get any duller? Hard, but perhaps not impossible. We'll have to see. In the meantime this is a buy the dip market until that stops working.

Tuesday, 31 October 2017

The Ghost Of Volatility Past

Are the equity indices topping out here or not. I think yes, though likely just for a retracement before higher highs. SPX is retesting good trendline resistance, is on a strong daily RSI 5 / NYMO sell signal, and a daily RSI 14 sell signal is now brewing as well. Another retest of the all time high would establish possible nested double tops. Maybe. SPX daily chart:
NDX broke through initial channel resistance and is testing a slightly higher and better alternate channel option. NDX daily chart:
It's hard to read the consolidation on RUT in recent days as anything other than a bull flag inviting a retest of the high, so that may be unfinished business above. RUT daily chart:
The ES, NQ and TF futures charts below were done before the RTH open for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. If you are interested in trying our services a 30 day free trial is available here.

A decent nested double tops setup on ES if the all time high is retested and rejected. If so a hard break below weekly pivot (marked) should set the downside ball rolling. ES Dec 60min chart:
NQ is already on a 60min sell signal and a 60min RSI 14 sell signal is brewing on NDX. NQ Dec 60min chart:
Not much to say about TF other than this very much looks like a retracement / flag. If so the ATH should be retested before any reversal. TF Dec 60min chart:
If ES can break the all time high with any confidence then Stan has the next target in the 2610 area.

I'll leave you with my favorite horror parody from YouTube.  :-)
Everyone have a great Halloween. :-)