Three Wise Patterns Bearing Gifts Of Volatility

I hope everyone had a great holiday and so far this week the tape has been pretty tedious. However I bring glad tidings, as the pattern setup here says that is likely to be changing in the near future. I've included my full premarket video today just to show that even with interesting things likely to start happening on equity indices, there are still more interesting things happening on many other markets this week. The equity indices section is at the start of the video, followed by quick looks at DX, CL, NG, HG, GC, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW EURUSD, GBPUSD, JPYUSD, CADUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD. Enjoy! Intraday Video - Update on ES, NQ and TF:

On the ES chart the boring chop of the last few days has resolved into a clear triangle. This leans bullish and on a break up over triangle resistance at 2693/4 ES should then at minimum retest the all time high. ES Mar 60min chart:

On the NQ chart the less boring decline over the last few days has resolved into a clear bull flag channel, and on a break and conversion of weekly pivot just under 6500 NQ should then at minimum retest the all time high. NQ Mar 60min chart: 

On the TF chart the boring chop of the last few days has resolved into a clear triangle. This leans bullish and on a break up over triangle resistance at 1555 TF should then at minimum retest the all time high. There is still an open double bottom target at the same retest. TF Mar 60min chart: 

These three retests may reject into three small double tops so I'll be watching them carefully. Stan and I are doing free public webinars at theartofchart.net after the closes today and tomorrow looking at the outlooks in 2018 for indices, currencies and bonds (today) and metals, energies and other commodities (tomorrow). If you'd like to attend you can register for those here.

Return To Santa, Address Unknown

I'm definitely in a holiday mood this week. That's not really due to declining workload, by the time I finish today I'll have published between 55 and 60 charts and three videos, but nonetheless the holidays are in the air and I'm feeling festive.

Santa has been AWOL for a couple of days on the indices though, and while I'm expecting this to resolve up into high retests we are starting to run a little short of time this week. Intraday Video - Update on ES, NQ and TF:

RUT 60min chart:

Old gold:

Probably A Dip To Buy

I was seeing a possibility of a retracement  last night and was talking about that this morning in my premarket vid. The 60min sell signals on ES and NQ have made target but there is a strong case on NQ for a hit of a wedge support trendline currently in the 6460 area and that has not yet been hit. On TF this is likely to be a pullback to establish a rising support trendline before the high probability retest of the all time high, though obviously this is a big news bomb week. Intraday Video - Update on ES, NQ and TF

Here is the double bottom setup on RUT/TF shown on RUT. The action from yesterday's high looks like a bull flag forming, and most likely that's exactly what it is. RUT 60min chart:

If you are enjoying these intraday video updates you can see those earlier by subscribing to our YouTube channel for The Art Of Chart. I tend to be uploading these an hour or so before the posts as the posts take extra time to prepare.

There is a lot of news this afternoon and tomorrow. Be wary.

Twas The Week Before Xmas

A strong start to the week, and we're likely to see at least some more upside, as the double bottom on RUT/TF that I was looking at on Friday has broken up with a target at a retest of the all time highs. I'm expecting that target to be hit. NQ is testing the trendline resistance I gave last week, and may break up to a higher one. ES is close to the 2700 test and on a break above I have a resistance trendline in the 2711 area. Intraday Video - Update on ES, NQ and TF:

RUT daily chart:

The ATH retest on RUT/TF may well be a short term high, and we are looking at a retracement starting soon running into the Jan 9th area. With the low volume holiday tape though I'd note that the only remaining day in 2017 with a strong bearish lean will be the last trading day of December.

RUT - The Sleeping Giant Awakens?

Back to back reversal trend days which we haven't seen in a while, and NQ has now made the new ATH that Stan and I were looking for. My video was moved from premarket to just before midday this morning, as a big Windows 10 update took my media computer hostage for several hours and I had to wait for that to finish. Here is the section on ES, SPX, NQ and TF. Intraday Video - Update on ES, NQ and TF:

What I've been looking at since I did the video is the very interesting setup on RUT here, as it had barely moved all week before moving down yesterday to break the last low and the daily middle band. That lower low was on positive RSI divergence and at the close today RUT may well fix a daily RSI 5 buy signal, with a full rejection candle today against yesterday's decline and a nice little double bottom setup that on a sustained break over 1533 looks for in effect a full retest of the all time high. If that delivers then we may well see NQ make my resistance trendline in the 6530 area and a test on ES of 2700 before the December high, which we are expecting sometime next week. RUT daily chart:

TGIF. Everyone have a great weekend :-)

Candidate 2017 Highs Made

Surprisingly interesting action on SPX/ES today and the possible 2017 highs on SPX and NDX that Stan and I are looking for in the next three or four days may already be in. Intraday Video - Update on ES, NQ and TF:

On the SPX daily chart the resistance trendline from 2016 is holding so far and a strong RSI 5 / NYMO daily sell signal may fix at the close today if we don't see a significant rally before the close. SPX daily chart:

Stan and I are doing a free public webinar tonight looking at AAPL, AMZN, FB, NFLX, TSLA and six assorted sector stocks an hour after the close tonight. If you'd like to see it you can register for that here. 

Santa With Some Reservations

Looking at the shorter term charts there are some signs that we might see a retracement, though with Fed tomorrow any retracement may need to wait until then. There is a possible case for NQ to backtest the weekly pivot at 6344. Intraday Video - Update on ES, NQ and TF:

On the SPX daily chart I've been showing the possible bigger picture resistance trendline being tested and that's still being tested, on quite a bit of negative RSI divergence. Significantly higher targets on RSI require at least a temporary break of that trendline. SPX daily chart:

The Fed tomorrow are an obvious potential market mover obviously, and quadruple witching expiry this week argues against any serious move until next week. Seasonality argues against any serious retracement in the next two weeks until Xmas is out of the way.

Winter Is Here

A modest storm by US standards is passing over the UK. We have enough snow for a modest selection of snowballs, and I'm planning a quiet weekend in, relaxing while doing no more than an absolute maximum of seventy charts and three videos before Monday. I might light a nice coal fire if the snow lasts.

Intraday Video - Update on ES, NQ & TF:

So are we starting a B wave down from this area? Possibly and for that I'll be watching the open gap from 6316.28 on NDX. If that is filled then the gap over resistance on NQ this morning was not a breakaway gap, and we may be starting a new leg down. NDX daily chart:

Everyone have a great weekend. :-)

When The Going Gets Tough

I've been struggling to get my morning posts out in recent months, and that's because my workload at theartofchart.net is substantial and still growing. Every morning before the open I update and publish charts on nineteen different futures and forex instruments and record a premarket video looking at all of those. This must be my main priority.

A possible solution I am looking at is to clip the equity indices section from that premarket video, and post that with a chart or two before or near the open. This should allow me to get back to doing these free posts on indices every morning which I'd like. Trying that out today. Tell me what you think.

SPX is approaching channel support now in the 2621 area and that is a match with rising support on ES. I'd be surprised if that wasn't tested and that could break at that test, though I'd prefer to see it hold. SPX 60min chart:

Interesting setup across ES, NQ and TF today that I look at in the video. ES and TF still working the channels that I posted on my twitter at Friday lunchtime last week, and they have been great performers so far. Premarket video excerpt - Equity Indices:

If the video isn't loading, then the direct link to it is here. I'll be uploading it to YouTube tomorrow and trying that instead of the direct upload I tried today.

Tell me what you think of the new format. Considering doing this every morning to get back into a workable daily routine on the blog.

December Begins

Stan and I are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat at theartofchart.net at 4pm EST on Sunday. We'll be looking at the usual wide range of equity indices, bonds, precious metals, energies and commodities and if you'd like to attend you can register for that on our December Free Webinars page.

After the spike up at the start of the week I noted the clear break over the previous wedge resistance on SPX, and mentioned that the next decent candidate trendline was in the 2650 area. That was a slightly low estimate as that trendline was tested at the high yesterday at 2657.74, rather sooner than I was expected. At the first test SPX has rejected from it. SPX daily chart:

So where does that leave SPX/ES? Well my confidence in the bears has rarely been lower than it is here at the start of a historically bullish month at the end of a very bullish year, but that is a potentially significant trendline resistance test and I'm watching this with interest.

On ES the rising channel I was looking at in the short video on Wednesday was resistance at the first highs yesterday morning, then broke up, and broken channel resistance was support in the afternoon after the rejection from the high. A small rising megaphone formed on that move and broke down overnight. This looks like a possible short term high, and a topping pattern may be forming, and I'm wondering about a retest of yesterday's high today or Monday to make the second high of a modest double top. ES Dec 60min chart:

While ES and TF have been making new all time highs NQ has very weak, and yesterday NQ was rallying from a hard decline the day before. That rally has found resistance so far at the weekly pivot at 6374. If that continues to hold as resistance today then NQ should start another leg down into the 6200 - 30 area. If it breaks and converts to support then the obvious target would be a retest of the all time high. NQ Dec 60min chart:

On TF a clear rising wedge has formed from the November low and broke down overnight. There is already an open target in the 1522 area from an only middling quality H&S, but if equities have a strong day today then TF could retest the high to make the second high of a small double top. TF Dec 60min chart:

The historical stats for December are firmly bullish, but the stats today are only neutral. The overall setup leans bearish but we may well need high retests first, and it's worth remembering how many bearish leaning setups have failed in 2017 to date. Everyone have a great weekend. :-)