One Down, Three To Go

Today is the end of the first quarter and the first day of the second quarter on Monday traditionally leans 75% bullish. That's worth bearing in mind here as any bullish move here may follow through on Monday.

Full Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF (at the start) and then DX, CL, NG, GC, ZB, HG, KC, SB, CC, ZW, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD:

I have a decent looking falling channel on SPX here and if the rally target is a test of channel resistance that is now in the 2680-5 area. At the speed SPX has been moving we could see that test today. SPX 15min chart:

FOMC Tomorrow

ES bounced at monthly pivot support yesterday and a likely bear flag is forming that on a break down should at minimum deliver a retest of yesterday's low, and likely continuation lower after that. There is a small section looking at Facebook at the end of the video today. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:

FOMC is tomorrow of course, and it is possible that the Fed might say something to cheer the bulls here, though it's a little hard to see what that might be. They obviously wouldn't mention QT1, the first phase of quantitative tightening designed to reverse the QE1 through QE3 easing periods. So far that has been implemented with a great deal less fanfare than any of the QE periods, so as not to spook equity markets. Equally the economic numbers over the last month are not supporting any slowing up on interest rate tightening, though in this case I think the Fed are in any case just playing catch up so as not to fall so far behind the markets that really set interest rates, that it becomes obvious that the Fed do not actually control interest rates.

For what it's worth, the beautiful little triangle on the TNX (10yr treasury yield) hourly chart is leaning strongly towards a fastish retest of the recent highs on bond yields, with more downwards pressure on bonds, so I'd be very surprised to see an immediate reversal there. TNX 60min chart:

A Promising Start

ES never managed to break below weekly pivot support last week but the new weekly pivot moved over price and ES is now testing the monthly pivot at 2698, which is holding so far. SPX and NDX have broken their rally rising wedges and retraced 38.2% of them, and if we are to see a backtest here, which looks likely as I write, then the obvious target would be the daily middle band, now in the 2735 area.

I've included the full intraday video today as I'm running late and I like to post one of these once a week or so. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF, DX, CL, NG, HG, GC, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD:

On the bigger picture we are ideally looking for a move to the 2450 area, and SPX ideally makes that in four weeks or so. As and when we make a tradeable low on this move we will be looking for at least ATH retests, so anyone looking for the bearpocalypse to start here is likely to be disappointed .... again. SPX 60min chart:

In-Between Daze

Today has been a choppy in-between day as SPX/ES has tested strong support and, so far at least, failed either to convert it to resistance and continue down, or rally strongly from it. However we are likely to see one or the other of those soon and I'm surprised that the process has taken as long as it has so far.

On the bear side is SPX filling the gap from 2738.97 that I was looking at yesterday. As I write the LOD on SPX is 2741.47, almost there, but there are no prizes for almost here. That gap needs to be filled to open the next target areas down. Our lean is that should be the way that SPX resolves out of this inflection point.

On the bull side is a failure to get down through support here, in which case a weak hourly RSI 5 buy signal has already fixed, a full size one is brewing, and on a sustained break back up over 2763 the double bottom target would be in the 2784.5 area, with an equivalent setup on NQ looking as though it might deliver a retest of the all time high there.

Price should decide one way or the other soon and we should then see the strong move from there that has failed to materialise so far today. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:

SPX 60min chart:

Testing Key Support

Yesterday's promising start to the downtrend has continued today and brought ES & SPX down to test important trend support at the weekly pivot on ES at 2749 and the 50 hour MA on SPX now at 2751. SPX is trading about 4 handles below ES today.  A decent confirmation that support is breaking would be a fill of the open breakaway gap on SPX from 2738.97. It is of course possible that this support level won't break, so bears really need to push down through this. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:

Here's the support shown on SPX. A break below opens a test of main rally rising support, now in the 2720 area. SPX 60min chart:

Buffing Fingernails Modestly

Stan and I were saying in the monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday that the last day of the cycle high window was today and we were expecting to see a rally high made by the end of the day. You can see the recording of that here. There was obviously no doubt in our minds (wipes last of cold sweat from brow), and we should be putting in the first stage of that now. Hourly RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals fixed this morning on all of SPX, NDX and RUT, and except for RUT, the RSI 5 sell signals have reached target in this first push down. We are expecting more downside, likely a lot more downside.

I haven't posted a full intraday video for a few days, so this is the full version also including DX, CL, NG, HG, GC, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD & NZDUSD. I do a premarket video every day for subscribers, and a full intraday video most days, and Stan does a post market video every night.

Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF, DX, CL, NG, HG, GC, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD & NZDUSD:

As I write with ES at 2770, SPX is starting to break rally channel support. On a break below I have a double top target on ES at 2760.50. Ideally that would be hit today. SPX 60min chart:

The Blue Pill

ES gapped up over resistance on the NFP numbers this morning, and we are running the second option that I  was looking at on the intraday video yesterday. ES is likely to hit the rising channel resistance I was looking at yesterday and that is now in the 2785 area. Ideally that gets hit today. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:

This is another inflection area and we are looking for a reversal to start from a high not much higher than this is the next couple of trading days. We shall see how that goes. ES Mar 60min chart:

Stan and I are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday covering the usual 40 or so instruments over most major markets. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on our March Free Webinars page.

The Thin End Of The Wedge

On the video today the first bit where I was looking at the action so far as a likely bull flag that should deliver a retest of the HOD is now obviously out of date, as the flag then broke up and made target, and we have a new HOD. That was unfortunately only of use to subscribers watching the video being recorded live, or on the subscriber twitter feed where I posted the full version soon afterwards. The shorter version takes a bit longer to produce.

For the rest of the video I am considering the case for a possible high being made here in the 2737.25 to 2741 area on ES and we are in that inflection point now. If we see a hard fail here we are looking for new 2018 lows at minimum. If we see a break up instead then we should see ES reach the 2780s next. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:

I drew in a possible overall rising wedge for the rally on TF this morning and it was encouraging for a fail in this area to see the high today at that resistance trendline. We'll see. TF Mar 60min chart:

Stan and I are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday covering the usual 40 or so instruments over most major markets. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on our March Free Webinars page.

Life Is What Happens ......

......... While You Are Busy Making Other Plans - Allen Saunders

The ideal day for the bears today, after yesterday's strong break over the daily middle band, would have been an AM high in the 2735-40 range on ES, then a break and conversion to resistance of 2716 on ES, and a trend day down closing the day well under the daily middle band in the 2700 area and delivering a very bearish daily middle band rejection candle.

The high this morning was low, not retesting the globex high on ES and not setting any decent hourly sell signals brewing. 2716 was then slowly converted to resistance, a process requiring a break of the level, a backtest that holds that level and then continuation in the direction of the break, but then ES found support at the weekly pivot at 2709, rejected back over 2716, reconverted that to support and continued up. This has more or less eliminated the possibility of seeing a rejection candle today, subject to presidential comments of course,

The next obvious target is a retest of the globex high on ES at 2734.5 and at that stage we will have serious possible hourly sell signals brewing. Then we see if 2735-40 resistance holds. If it does then the next move down should be a strong one. A break and conversion of 2740 opens the door to a retest of the rally high, and possible second high of a double top there.

The bears' chances here would have been better with that test this morning and a fail there. I'm keeping an open mind.


Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:

I have drawn in three possible falling channel resistance trendlines on SPX that might be a high for this move. SPX 60min chart:

Rally Ending?

The hourly buy signals on ES, NQ, SPX and NDX all reached target today and the RSI 5 buy signal on RUT has reached target as well. Only the hourly RSI 14 buy signal on RUT hasn't yet reached target and that is weakened by fixing at the same time as the RSI 5 buy signal that has reached target. ES and SPX both had pattern targets in the 2725 area that have been reached, NDX/NQ and RUT/TF have reached minimum targets but could go a little higher on their reversal patterns.

We are expecting this to just be a rally before new 2018 lows and the next reversal back down should start soon, though very possibly from higher and not necessarily from a high made today. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:

There are possible sell signals brewing on the 15min charts here, but nothing on the 60min charts so far. SPX 15min chart:

Rally Time

Full intraday video as I haven't posted this week. Looking for a rally here on equities that should run into next week. After that we should see the 2018 lows at least retested.

Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF - and CL, NG, HG, GC, ZB, DX, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, KC, SB, CC & ZW:

Nice hourly buy signals across the board supporting the rally. Here's the one on SPX. SPX 60min chart:

Everyone have a great weekend :-)