Jack Chappell aka Springheel Jack - A Classical Trendline Chartist's View of Equities, Bonds, Forex and Commodities
- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE - This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
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So far the scenario I was laying out on Friday has been playing out perfectly with the two red days at the start of this week, and SPX backtesting obvious trend support at the 50 hour MA twice. SPX didn't quite retest Monday's low yesterday, so the double bottom setup here isn't perfect but SPX may well resume the uptrend directly from here.
Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD:
If SPX does go any lower, possibly on FOMC, then I'd note that gap support is at 2906/7 and rising wedge support and the daily middle band are both now at 2900 and, if tested, I'd expect support here. The historical stats for today and tomorrow are firmly bullish. SPX 60min chart:
We are doing our monthly free public FAANG and Key Sectors webinar tomorrow and hour after the RTH close and if you'd like to attend, you can register for that on our September Free Webinars page.
Looking at the average rises and falls on SPX from the start since 1997, the most bearish straight sequence of days of the year are the six days from 19th September through 25th September. Within those six days, usually including the September quadruple witching, the lowest percentage of positive closes is 23rd September at 26.67% and the highest is 25th September at 35.71%. Markets are closed on the 22nd and 23rd this year of course, so that leaves Monday and Tuesday next week leaning historically bearish, and Wednesday through Friday leaning an average of 62% bullish. There is a significant possibility of a retracement in the early part of next week, and there is a decent looking setup here for that.
Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD:
So how well is the advance here correlating with the projection I posted three weeks ago? Very well so far, except the failure for the initial retracement to quite reach the ideal support trendline. That may still need to be tested, but looks ambitious for the first half of next week. If we see that retracement then the obvious target would be a test of the 50 hour moving average, currently in the 2910 area, and likely in that timeframe to be tested in the 2915-20 area. SPX 60min chart:
Since I was writing on Friday the bull flag megaphone has broken up, a rising wedge formed on ES into yesterday's high and then that wedge broke down with the obvious target at a retest of the retracement low. So far however this has delivered higher lows on SPX and ES, and ES is again testing key resistance at the weekly pivot at 2884. On a break and conversion of WP the obvious read would be that the next leg up has started, although .........
...... the ideal target on SPX has not yet been hit, though SPX has come close twice. There is a risk that is unfinished business below, and that the next leg up on SPX will not start in earnest until that target is hit. That leaves a question mark over any impulse directly up from here. If ES can convert 2884 to support today however, then we would likely not make that low today at least.
Apologies for the lack of updates this week. I've been reorganising my office which has been time-consuming though very satisfying. The video below is the full premarket video that I do every morning at for subscribers and there are quite a few charts at very interesting stages, most definitely including SPX/ES here.
When I was showing the SPX 15min chart in the video I was saying that ideally there would be an early rally today into the mid-2880s to test bull flag megaphone resistance, before a reversal back down towards bull flag megaphone support, now in the 2858 area. That trendline is declining at about 7.5 handles per day so will likely be in the 2854 area by the end of the session.
Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD:
From the chart below you can see that is playing out as expected so far. SPX 15min chart:
On the bigger picture hourly chart that I posted last week with my ideal path for SPX over the next few weeks, you can see that my ideal retracement low target at a touch of rising support from the late June low is now in the mid to high 2850s and a strong match with the shorter term bull flag megaphone support shown on the 15min chart above. Ideally that would be tested today and the next leg up for the next three to five weeks would start there. We'll see how that goes. SPX 60min chart:
Two announcements today. We are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat this Sunday 9th September running through the usual 35 to 40 instruments over a very wide range of markets and, if you'd like to attend, you can register for that on our September Free Webinars page. Be there or be unaware! :-)
We are also running another Trading Academy Boot Camp starting on Monday September 10th. The first two were very well received, and you can see testimonials from that as you scroll down on our testimonials page. It is also cheaper (and at least in our view better) than anything comparable on the market, and likely to be the last one we run this year. At the moment there are still places available and, if you're interested in attending, you can find out more and register for that on this page here, though this is obviously the last chance to do so, as registrations for that will be closed before the first session on Monday.
