Topping Out Here ........ Probably

In my premarket video this morning for daily video service at theartofchart.net I was saying that until demonstrated otherwise I was expecting to see all time retests on ES and NQ before a possible swing high (and potential significant top). That high retest is at 3027.75 on ES and the high today so far has just missed that by 2 handles so far. That full test is likely needed before the turn. There is a very nicely formed nested double top setup formed on ES and SPX and that just needs a decent turn down to set the next move in motion.

ES Sep 60min:

The equivalent target on NQ is 8051.75, again not yet reached.

NQ Sep 60min:

In terms of the overall structure from the December low SPX is just under rising wedge resistance and this would be an excellent fail area, though wedges can overthrow of course, and I do have a possible alternate wedge resistance trendline now in the 3045 area. There's no negative divergence on the hourly chart here but ......

SPX 60min chart:

.... there is plenty on the daily chart, with the RSI 5 sell signal already fixed and a possible weak RSI 14 sell signal now brewing. This is a solid looking setup just waiting for the actual turn, though it's hard to overstate the importance of seeing that actual turn of course. Sweet setups don't always deliver.

SPX daily chart:

Stan and I did two free public webinars yesterday on the Big Five and Sectors (AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOG, NFLX, TSLA, IBB, IYR, XLE, XLF, XLK & XRT), and the second on favorite setups using futures and options. Both are posted on our July Free Webinars page if you'd like to see those.

Everyone have a great weekend :-)

Daily Sell Signals Have Fixed

The daily RSI 5 / NYMO sell signal that was brewing last week has fixed on this first decline from the all time high and has not yet reached target. The rising wedge has broken down into a test of the daily middle band so far, and I am looking for a reversal pattern to form. The obvious options are either to retest the all time high to make the second high of a small double top or to head further down towards the 2964 area and the possible H&S neckline there.

SPX daily chart:

I was talking on our free public 'favorite setups' webinar last night about the importance of the 50 hour MA on SPX, and that was resistance on SPX at the high yesterday, and while that was broken slightly at the highs today, that was not converted back to support and has rejected late in the day. The obvious next target for me is another test of the daily middle band, now at 2973, and a likely break down towards the mid 2960 area and the possible H&S neckline support there.

SPX 60min chart:

ES broke back over the weekly pivot today but failed to convert that to support either.

ES Sep 60min:

Stan and I did a free public webinar yesterday looking at some of our favorite setups. If you missed that you can see the recording on our July Free Webinars Page. We looked at examples of charts from this week and if you watch the video you can see how the setups we looked at delivered nicely today.

Neither Stan or I spends much time talking about setups we look at in these webinars in retrospect, as we both feel that it seems like boasting, and there is already plenty of that on twitter without us pitching in. It also smacks of vanity, which can be a fatal flaw in any analyst. That said, our marketing people point out that referring back to past successes might be be better described as marketing rather than bragging, so that being the case I'll talk quickly about the two setups that I was talking about last night in the webinar, and that you can see on that recording.

The first setup was buying or selling the 50 hour MA in a backtest during the trend, and obviously you can see the reaction to the fail at the SPX 50 hour MA today. The other setup I looked at was the double bottom on CL yesterday afternoon. I was looking at that on positive RSI divergence, and noting that the double bottom target in the 56.50 area was both a strong match with a 61.8% retracement of the last leg down, and with a test of the monthly pivot at 56.46. I was saying that CL was a decent looking long into that target and an interesting short when it got there. The overnight high was at 56.49 and the subsequent low today was 55.12 so both were nice calls. We do a lot of nice calls but don't usually mention them, but my point is that the free public webinars are always worth watching IMO.

Everyone have a great weekend :-)

Daily Sell Signals Now Brewing

In my post last Friday I was talking about the likely retest coming of the new all time high on SPX (and ES), and how that should set possible daily RSI sell signals brewing on SPX (and ES). We saw that ATH retest and marginal new ATH this morning and I am now looking for a high. It is possible that SPX/ES might go a bit higher but I wouldn't expect much higher and I'd note that there is already a decent quality double top setup here and that on a sustained break below 2964 the double top target would be in the 2923 area.

ES Sep 60min chart:

On SPX the smaller rising wedge has broken down but it is still possible that the larger wedge resistance trendline might be a target. That is now in the 3025 area.

SPX 60min chart:

On the daily chart we now see the RSI topping configuration that I was looking for to form in my last post. Today is the middle of this high window so i am looking for a high to form. The key support level I am watching for support here is the level that held at the low yesterday, at the 50 hour MA on SPX, now in the 2971 area.

SPX daily chart:

If you missed Chart Chat on Sunday you can see the recording posted on our July Free Webinars page.

Coming Into The High Window

Apologies for the long delay between posts. My wife has been having a serious health issue including some surgery so I have been very distracted.

In my last post I was looking for another high retest, and we have seen that, with a push this week into the psychologically important 3000 area after the close on Friday. So what now? Well the next high window slipped back from late June into the middle of next week, and we are looking for a significant high, and very possibly the 2019 high, to form in this area. In the short term I'm expecting SPX to test the new ATH on ES and I have a high quality possible rising wedge trendline currently in the 3005-10 area which would be a solid match with that.

SPX 60min chart:

On the daily chart a possible daily RSI 5 sell signal is now brewing, and that high retest might well set an RSI 14 sell signal brewing as well.

SPX daily chart:

On NDX a marginal new ATH has been made and there is now a near perfect nested double top setup for what could be a very serious pullback. Again a possible daily RSI 5 sell signal is brewing.

NDX daily chart:

Stan and I are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday, and if you'd like to attend you can register for that on our July Free Webinars page. Our annual July 4th sale is also on until the end of this week and if you are interested in picking up a discounted annual subscription you can do that here. Everyone have a great weekend :-)