Jack Chappell aka Springheel Jack - A Classical Trendline Chartist's View of Equities, Bonds, Forex and Commodities
- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE - This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.
It's been a while since my last post and my apologies for that. It has been an intense summer of medical treatments for my wife, exams and results for my children, computer upgrades and so on. I've been feeling somewhat drained.
However the market has so far avoided being as tedious as it often is at this time of year, and, if I'm not much mistaken, then the next leg down on equities has started this morning from a short term reversal setup that is really one of the nicest that I have seen in quite a while. I was going through that in detail across SPX, ES, NQ, RTY, DAX and ESTX50 in the video below before the open this morning.
Today's Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Updates on ES, NQ, RTY, DAX, ESTX50, SPX, NDX, RUT, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, DX, :
The rising wedge that I was looking at on ES before the open has now broken down, and ES should now be on the way to short term double top support at Friday's low 2894. A sustained break below looks for the 2848 area.
ES Sep 60min chart:
I still have an open target below at the 2822.13 SPX retest and that is a 5dma Three Day Rule target, which was just missed on the last swing down because a triangle is likely forming here. In the cases of the previous two times this has happened since the start of 2007, that target was not hit before the retest of the previous highs (all time high in the current case), but they were both bullish triangles. This one should be a bearish triangle, so the 2822 target should be hit on the way to the next downside targets.
SPX 5dma chart:
I have sketched in the likely triangle on SPX and the obvious target for the wave D low is currently in the 2830 area. I'd then be looking for a limited rally, perhaps into the 2850-70 area, before the triangle break down, ideally towards the 2730 area for a more serious low there.
SPX 60min chart:
Stan and I are doing two free public webinars tonight, and if you are interested in attending either, or both, you can sign up for those on our August Free Webinars page. The first webinar is at the RTH close, 4pm EST, on My Favorite Setups Using Futures And Options - Part 3', and the second at 5pm EST is our monthly free webinars on FAANG stocks and key sectors.
SPX delivered some wild moves this week, helped along by the White House Staff's ongoing failure to gain control of the President's twitter account, but at the end of the week SPX has reached the obvious first target at a test of the 2915 support area, and there is a short term inflection point here. This is the retest of the late June low, just above a big open gap from 2889.67, and is a possible H&S neckline area. If SPX was to rally from here the ideal right shoulder high would be in the 2964 area, and that would set up a possible H&S that on a sustained break down would look for the 2800 area, with obvious serious support on the way at rising wedge support, currently in the 2870 area.
Support for a rally here also comes in the form of today's break below the 3sd daily lower band, which generally delivers a decent bounce short term, subject to further unexpected tweets over the weekend of course.
