Testing Strong Resistance Here

 Apologies for the extended absence again as my interminable divorce drags on. That's making progress though at least and in a few months at most should be done.

In the meantime I posted my premarket video at theartofchart.net from this morning on my twitter in the morning and on indices so far at least that has been exactly on target. If you missed that then you can see that here.

Just to recap quickly what I was saying on the video, I was expecting SPX and NDX to rally into retests of the strong resistance trendlines that have been holding so far this week on both. We have seen that retest on SPX and a daily RSI 5 sell signal is now brewing as expected. If that fixes then these have been good performers for delivering retracements this year.

SPX daily chart:

If we do see that reversal then there is a nice little double top setup that could deliver a move back to 4320, and possible larger topping pattern support in the 4233 area.

SPX 60min chart:

The trendline on NDX isn't as long but has held like a champ so far. That may need a high retest though and, if so, we haven't seen that yet.

NDX 60min chart:

Resistance still needs to hold tomorrow, which leans bearish as the last day of the month, though Fridays have been mostly bullish lately. Monday is the first trading day of August but that is one of the few of these that leans bearish.

Stan and I are doing our monthly free review of tech stocks and sectors an hour after the close tonight. If you'd like to watch that you can register for that here, or on our July Free Webinars page.

Watching For 4400-10

 I've been distracted this week by a divorce hearing yesterday morning, but that's out of the way now and I'm doing two posts today. This first one is talking about short term upside targets across SPX, NDX, IWM and INDU and the second one later today will be looking at the bigger picture case for a backtest of the 3750-3800 SPX area soon, and the potentially very bullish implications if we were to see that happen.

For now on SPX the wedge resistance trendline is in the 4400-10 area, and the retracement over the last couple of days could set up a very decent possible RSI 5 sell signal if SPX heads directly to that target from here.

SPX daily chart:

NDX and the Big 5 are looking worryingly toppy here and may be peaking short term, but on a move higher I have a very attractive resistance trendline currently in the 15,250 area.

NDX weekly chart:

On IWM there have been two near miss attempts at a retest of the March high and that may still be unfinished business above. The price action from the early June high may be forming a bull flag.

IWM 60min chart:

On Dow a decent bull flag has formed from the May all time high and broken up. That should deliver a retest of the all time high and I'll be looking for that if we see the 4400 test on SPX.

INDU 60min chart:

ES has broken back over the weekly pivot at 4318 overnight, and Fridays have been pretty bullish lately, so we'll see whether the bulls can get SPX and closer to that upside target today.

We are holding our monthly public free Chart on Sunday at 4pm EDT. If you'd like to attend then you can register for that here, or on our July Free Webinars page.

We run an annual July 4th sale at theartofchart.net with an additional 20% off the already discounted price for annual memberships, giving effectively four free months on an annual membership until the sale ends in couple of days. If you're interested the sale page is here, and remember you need to enter the sale code JULY4SALE in the checkout process.

Everyone have a great weekend.

The Next Upside Targets

Obviously SPX broke up at the last inflection point and may well be on the way to the resistance trendline I mentioned in my last post, currently in the 4400 area.

I'm still leaning towards seeing a decent backtest of the 4000 area over the summer sometime and ideally that backtest would reach the 3800 area. I'll explain why that is in another post over the holiday weekend and if we were to see that retracement, and then found decent support there, it would set up a potentially very bullish scenario for another leg up.

In the shorter term, the rising wedge from March 2020  broke down on the last retracement and if that break was just an expansion of the wedge, then we should see that test of wedge resistance in the 4400 area next. If seen I will then redraw the wedge support as unbroken.

SPX daily chart:

On the shorter term SPX there is a possible resistance trendline at today's highs so, if that is going to be respected, SPX may need a pullback early next week before going higher.

SPX 15min chart:

On NDX I was showing the chart below early this week in a premarket video showing a double trendline resistance target above. NDX has been lagging this week so that has not been reached yet.

NDX 15min chart:

IWM has been consolidating in a possible triangle. As and when that finishes I have an upside target at the March high at 233.74.

IWM 15min chart:

On Dow a bull flag has broken up with a target at a retest of the June high at 35.1K.

INDU 60min chart:

There is some resistance on SPX in the 4350 area, but looking over the other indices I'm favoring a move to the trendline resistance now in the 4400 area, likely next week as it is a holiday week and the historical stats lean bullish. If that trendline is reached the next decent inflection point will be there.

As I mentioned, I'm planning a post over the holiday weekend to look at the possible backtest of the 3800 on SPX that I think we may see soon, and the pattern implications if SPX was to deliver that backtest and hold that area as support.

We run an annual July 4th sale at theartofchart.net with an additional 20% off the already discounted price for annual memberships, giving effectively four free months on an annual membership until the sale ends. If you're interested the sale page is here, and remember you need to enter the sale code JULY4SALE in the checkout process.

Everyone have a great weekend.