Solana Breaking Towards 2024 High

I called a possible swing low on cryptos on 5th July, and that's been progressing as expected so far, and BTCUSD (Bitcoin) is now getting very close to bull flag resistance.

Bear flag resistance on Bitcoin is in the 70,600 area, and that is now getting very close. If that breaks then the flag target will be a retest of the all time high at 73.8k. Bitcoin has come off the daily upper band ride, and I am wondering about a possible backtest into the daily middle band, now in the 64,444 area, supported by the monthly pivot at 64358, and with the 50dma not far below now at 63,371.

BTCUSD daily chart:

On the hourly chart the RSI 14 sell signal is reaching the target area, and there is a possible small double top target at 66.7k, and a sustained break below would look for a target 63.3k to 64.0k area. That could deliver that possible daily mid band backtest.

BTCUSD hourly chart:

On ETHUSD (Ethereum), the bull flag resistance in the 3,890 area is further away and a daily RSI 5 sell signal fixed and made target last week. Ethereum has been the weakest on the move up from the early July lows, and I'd like to see it continue to hold support at the 200dma, now in the 3208 area, and then get back over the daily mid band now at 3328, and the 50dma, now at 3359.

ETHUSD daily chart:

SOLUSD (Solana) has already broken back well above the obvious bull flag resistance, and has a still confirmed flag target back at a retest of the 2024 high at 209.86, as it has now made a higher high over the May 2024 high at 188.83.

I would note though that there are now possible weak RSI 14 and full RSI 5 sell signals brewing on the daily chart. Those are only potential sell signals at this stage, but as we saw on Ethereum last week, those can fix and trigger a sharp retracement. If see the two key levels to watch would be short term rising support in the 176 area, and the daily middle band now in the 165.38 area.

SOLUSD daily chart:

On the Solana hourly chart the double bottom target in the 188 area was reached with a high at 193.89 over the weekend. That has confirmed the bull triangle target at 209.86.

Shorter term though there is a decent quality rising wedge forming from the last lows. Short term rising support from 133.39 is now in the 176 area, and there is a second possible rising support trendline from the low at 121.19 that is currently in the 166 area, and if this rising wedge continues to form, then that would become the obvious target on a break below the first trendline support in the 176 area, and with the daily middle band also now in the 165/6 area.

SOLUSD hourly chart:

Overall the bull setup on these cryptos is looking good, with a possible retracement starting here, and in my view there is a decent chance that all three are on the way to retests of their all time highs over coming weeks and months, with that closest on Bitcoin, and still some distance away on Ethereum and Solana. launches of spot (rather than futures based) ETFs on Ethereum and Solana would help that a lot, and we may be seeing both approved and launched in coming months.

I have a question for everyone reading. I've been covering these cryptos for a while but only started doing regular posts on these in recent weeks. Where should I be publishing these posts as well to reach a large audience interested in crypto? Suggestions very welcome.

I've stopped using a custom domain for my blogger posts so the address for those has reverted back to  https://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/

If you are enjoying my analysis and would like to see it every day (including a daily premarket video) at theartofchart.net, which I co-founded in 2015, you can register for a 30 day free trial here. It is included in the Daily Video Service, which in turn is included in the Triple Play Service.

The H&S on NDX

On the last big move up on equities the main and, almost only, driver was Tech. That has ended for the time being and, since it ended, Tech has been leading the way down. For that reason I have mainly been looking at NDX for signs that this retracement might go lower.

In my premarket videos at theartofchart.net on Friday and Monday and Tuesday this week I was talking about the possibility that the an H&S might form on NDX and NQ at the obvious big support level at the possible H&S neckline close to the monthly pivot. Support was found there and since then a decent looking right shoulder for that H&S has been forming. I gave the ideal right shoulder high in the 20,000 area, and NDX reached 19904.50, which is close enough for a decent looking pattern. This morning that H&S on NDX broke down with a target in the 18250 area.

NDX 15min chart:

On the NDX hourly chart there is still a fixed RSI 14 buy signal which has not come close to target. That raises a question about another possible reversal back up, but overall the setup here is leaning towards the downside target. I'd note also that the H&S target is at the 38.2% fib retracement of the move up from the Oct 2023 low.

NDX 60min chart:

On the daily chart the rally on NDX was the weakest of the main US indices during the rally from Friday's low, and this morning NDX broke down below the H&S neckline and the monthly pivot at 19,364. The monthly pivot is the key here. A break and conversion of the monthly pivot to resistance should deliver the H&S target area in the 18,250 area, with possible support on the way at rising support from the Oct 2023 low, currently in the 18,500 area.

NDX daily chart:

On SPX there is possible double support I'll be watching at the monthly pivot at 5406 and rising support from the Oct 2023 low, currently in the 5400 area. If hit SPX may well find support there.

SPX daily chart:

On the SPX daily 45dma chart, this may well be a reversion to the mean move, and the mean I am using is the 45dma. that's currently in the 5470 area, but tends to be a rough target, so I'd be expecting that to break on the way to bigger support in the 5400-10 area.

SPX daily 45dma chart:

Equities could be making a serious high here, though I'm skeptical about that and, if that is the case, it will likely involve at least one more high retest. In the meantime I'm looking for more downside, and we'll see what happens when SPX and NDX start hitting the next big support levels.

I've stopped using a custom domain for my blogger posts so the address for those has reverted back to https://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/

If you are enjoying my analysis and would like to see it every day (including a daily premarket video) at theartofchart.net, which I co-founded in 2015, you can register for a 30 day free trial here. It is included in the Daily Video Service, which in turn is included in the Triple Play Service.

Bitcoin Approaching Bull Flag Resistance

I called a possible swing low on cryptos on 5th July, and that's been progressing as expected so far, and BTCUSD (Bitcoin) is getting close to bull flag resistance.

Bear flag resistance on Bitcoin is in the 70,600 area, and that is now getting close. If that breaks then the flag target will be a retest of the all time high at 73.8k. If Bitcoin continues to stay close to the daily upper band, then that should be hitting bull flag resistance by Wednesday.

BTCUSD daily chart:

In the short term there is an hourly RSI 14 sell signal fixed on Bitcoin, short term trendline support is in the 66,700 area, the new weekly pivot is at 65,745, and there should be decent double support at the 100dma at 64,364, and the 50dma at 63,784. If that fails then the next double support is at the daily middle band at 61,136, and the 200dma at 60,120. A break below 60,000 at this point would be worryingly bearish.

BTCUSD hourly chart:

On ETHUSD (Ethereum), the bull flag resistance in the 3.890 area is further away and there is a possible daily RSI 5 sell signal brewing. Ethereum is currently backtesting the new weekly pivot at 3439.50, and is close to a backtest of the 50dma at 3423. Main support is at the daily middle band, now at 3246, and once again, a sustained break below that would be bearish.

ETHUSD daily chart:

SOLUSD (Solana) has already broken back well above the obvious bull flag resistance, and has a still unconfirmed target back at a retest of the 2024 high at 209.86. On a sustained break back over the May high at 188.83, I would consider that 209.86 bull flag target confirmed.

I mentioned last week that Solana was close to the daily 3sd upper band, and that would be a good time to see some consolidation, and we may be seeing that at the moment. First support is at the new weekly pivot at 172.21, and no obvious big support levels below that until the 150 area, with all of the daily middle band, and the 50dma and 100dma currently in that area. I would be surprised to see that area tested at this stage and a sustained break below would look very bearish.

SOLUSD daily chart:

On the Solana hourly chart the double bottom target in the 188 area has almost been reached with a high at 185.03 over the weekend, and once that target is made I'd be looking for a test of the May high at 188.83. On a sustained break above that I would be looking for a retest of the 2024 high at 209.86.

SOLUSD hourly chart:

Overall the bull setup on these cryptos is looking good, and in my view there is a decent chance that all three are on the way to retests of their all time highs over coming weeks and months, with that closest on Bitcoin, and still some distance away on Ethereum and Solana. launches of spot (rather than futures based) ETFs on Ethereum and Solana would help that a lot, and we may be seeing both approved and launched in coming months.

I have a question for everyone reading. I've been covering these cryptos for a while but only started doing regular posts on these in recent weeks. Where should I be publishing these posts as well to reach a large audience interested in crypto? Suggestions very welcome.

I've stopped using a custom domain for my blogger posts so the address for those has reverted back to  https://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/

If you are enjoying my analysis and would like to see it every day (including a daily premarket video) at theartofchart.net, which I co-founded in 2015, you can register for a 30 day free trial here. It is included in the Daily Video Service, which in turn is included in the Triple Play Service.

Reaching Initial Target Level on Solana

I called a possible swing low on cryptos on 5th July, and that's been progressing as expected so far, and is getting close to some key resistance levels and, in the case of SOLUSD (Solana), is hitting it.

On BTCUSD (Bitcoin) the daily RSI 14 buy signal is reaching the possible near miss target area, and a possible daily RSI 5 sell signal is brewing. Bitcoin has broken back over the 50dma and converted that to support and the obvious next resistance is the bear flag megaphone resistance currently in the 70,800 area. A break above that opens a retest of the all time high at 73.8k.

BTCUSD daily chart:

ETHUSD (Ethereum) has now broken back over the 50dma, and the way looks clear to the next obvious target at bull flag descending triangle resistance currently in the 3900 area. A break above would open a retest of the 2024 high at 4092.73.

ETHUSD daily chart:

Solana was the one closest to bull flag/triangle resistance and that was hit today. Solana is close to the 3sd daily upper band and that may well deliver some consolidation in this area. On a break above Solana will have a double bottom target in the 188 area, and a bull flag target at a retest of the 2024 high at 209.86.

SOLUSD daily chart:

On the hourly chart Solana is now over halfway from the break of double bottom resistance at 154.78 to the double bottom target at 188. No current RSI divergence and nothing currently suggesting a significant reversal here.

Overall the crypto move up from the low is proceeding as it should if a significant swing low was put in two weeks ago, and in the my view the odds are decent that all three of the ones I have looked at today are on the way back to new all time highs.

SOLUSD hourly chart:

One chart on equities today to follow up on my post yesterday. The retracement scenario is proceeding well, but there is a strong chance that there may be a decent rally here and, if so, that a right shoulder may be forming on NDX and NQ setting up an extension lower. after the bounce.

I'm showing the possible H&S neckline hit on the NDX 15min chart below. Both NDX and NQ are testing their monthly pivots, so this is a big support level, and there are hourly buy signals fixed on NQ and ES, an 15min RSI 14 buy signal fixed on NDX and another brewing on SPX. We'll see how that goes.

NDX 15min chart:

Everyone have a great weekend :-)

I've stopped using a custom domain for my blogger posts so the address for those has reverted back to  https://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/

If you are enjoying my analysis and would like to see it every day (including a daily premarket video) at theartofchart.net, which I co-founded in 2015, you can register for a 30 day free trial here. It is included in the Daily Video Service, which in turn is included in the Triple Play Service.

A Changing Of The Guard

In my post a week ago I was looking at the runaway move on Tech, and the way the move had just blown through some serious sell signals on SPX without breaking a sweat. These moves can end anytime of course, and it may well be that the move has ended, with a powerful rotation out of Tech and into the Dow and Russell 2000 over the last few days.

There is another decent setup for retracement on SPX and NDX here now and, with Tech in retreat, that may well deliver.

On SPX new daily RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals have fixed, after the first ones failed of course, and there is a decent looking nested double top setup that has already partially delivered. I'll be looking at that in more detail in the fourth chart down on this post, the SPX 15min chart.

SPX daily chart:

Daily RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals have now also fixed on ES, which didn't happen last time, and the short term resistance trendlines also look decent. Both ES and SPX have come off the their daily upper band rides, and an obvious initial retracement would be their daily middle bands, currently in the 5595 area on ES, and 5539 area on SPX.

ES Sep daily chart:

There was no fixed daily sell signal on NDX last time, but the negative divergence on the RSI 14 survived the move up, and that RSI 14 sell signal fixed with the others above at the close yesterday.

In a striking signal of relative weakness NDX also gapped down below the daily middle band yesterday and held that break into the close. That kind of break is a very strong way to break a support or resistance level and would usually follow through to the downside.

NDX daily chart:

On SPX and ES there was a very nice looking nested double top setup on the high that I have been watching in my premarket videos, and that has partially played out, with the smaller double top having played out, and the larger one having broken down this morning. That has a target range in the 5480-5500 area, with larger support and a possible much larger H&S neckline in the 5450 area. On ES Sep the corresponding levels are a target in the 5520 area, and the larger support level in the 5500 area.

SPX 15min chart:

Will these downside targets be reached? Well this is a lovely setup on SPX and NDX to go lower, but I am a bit concerned that we may have traded a runaway move up on Tech for another runaway move on Dow and the Russell 2000. the Dow 15min chart below shows in the highlighted area the move up since 6th July. We have seen a little weakness there today, and over the last two days on the Russell 2000, but not much weakness overall so far. There is some negative divergence on both but an extended move down that is all Tech is unlikely to last long. We'll see.

INDU 15min chart:

This will be my only post on indices this week, but I'm planning a crypto post tomorrow and will likely include an equity index chart there if anything looks interesting.

I've stopped using a custom domain for my blogger posts so the address for those has reverted back to https://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/

If you are enjoying my analysis and would like to see it every day (including a daily premarket video) at theartofchart.net, which I co-founded in 2015, you can register for a 30 day free trial here. It is included in the Daily Video Service, which in turn is included in the Triple Play Service.

Crypto Low Looking Good

I'm probably going to start writing a post every Monday morning on cryptos. That's a good day to do it because the pivot week on cryptos ends on Sunday night, so the weekly pivots on the daily charts I post on Monday mornings will be the new ones.

BTCUSD made an interesting looking low a few days ago and I wrote a post that day about the possible bull flag low that might now be in. Since then on BTCUSD the possible RSI 5 buy signal has fixed and BTCUSD has rallied well to break  back over the daily middle band yesterday. If that is converted into support then the next obvious target will be bull flag megaphone resistance, currently in the 71,300 area. On a break above that the bull flag target would be a retest of the all time high not far above.

BTCUSD daily chart:

There's no obvious reversal pattern on BTCUSD yet, but there is a possible IHS neckline in the 63.8k area. If we see a pullback from that area, ideally back into the 58.4k area, then that could set up an IHS that on a sustained break up would look for at least a test of flag resistance.

BTCUSD hourly chart:

As I mentioned in my last post the corresponding low on ETHUSD set up the support trendline on a very decent looking bull flag descending triangle. ETHUSD is also back over the daily middle band and, if that holds, the next obvious target on ETHUSD will be flag resistance, currently in the 3900 area.

ETHUSD daily chart:

SOLUSD didn't reach the obvious support trendline, though I have marked in a possible alternate triangle support trendline. Flag resistance is currently in the 171 area.

SOLUSD daily chart:

There is also a very decent looking bottoming pattern on SOLUSD, in this case a double bottom. On a sustained break over 154.78the target would be in the 188 area, close to the May high at 188.83.

SOLUSD hourly chart:

A serious low may now be in on all three of these cryptos, on BTCUSD there is an obvious path to a retest of the all time high, and on ETHUSD and SOLUSD an obvious path back to retest the 2024 highs, and from there a very possible retest of their all time highs. We'll see how this develops from here.

We did our free monthly Chart Chat at theartofchart.net yesterday. If you'd like to see the recording of that you can see that here.

I've stopped using a custom domain for my blogger posts so the address for those has reverted back to  https://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/

If you are enjoying my analysis and would like to see it every day (including a daily premarket video) at theartofchart.net, which I co-founded in 2015, you can register for a 30 day free trial here. It is included in the Daily Video Service, which in turn is included in the Triple Play Service.

Beware Of The Balrog

Last week I was looking at the decent looking resistance trendlines and growing mass of negative RSI divergence on both SPX and NDX. Over the course of the last week first the SPX resistance trendline broke, though this could still be a bearish overthrow, and then the daily RSI 14 sell signal failed on Friday, and then the SPX RSI 5 sell signal failed yesterday. That is very unusual, and does not favor a significant high being made here.

SPX daily chart:

If this is a break up rather than just a bearish overthrow, then the next obvious target would be rising channel resistance, currently in the 5750 to 5800 area. There is still an open hourly RSI 14 sell signal that didn't quite fail yesterday, suggesting that the move down from the overnight high may well have further to go.

SPX hourly chart:

If we are seeing a break up on the NDX chart then there is no obvious next resistance trendline. There is still a possible RSI 14 sell signal brewing and if this retracement from the overnight high follows through, then that may fix tomorrow.

NDX daily chart:

On the hourly chart the RSI 14 sell signal has reached the possible near miss target. I would start getting seriously interested in the downside only if NDX could get back to a test of the possible H&S neckline in the 19577 area.

NDX hourly chart:

Until then, I'd like to show the ES Sept hourly chart for the last three months and draw your attention to the three failed hourly sell signals over the last week until the fourth finally fixed and made target this morning. This was very unusual, and I think I can recall this happening one other time since the 2009 low, maybe in 2013. It is a sign of a very strong trend, the kind that can keep running up or down through resistance levels and divergences until it has played out. This is the kind of thing you might see on a chart once a decade or so.

When the current retracement ends, that collapse upwards may resume, and both NDX and SPX could run a lot higher until that fails.

Hence the title, in LOTR, when Gandalf stands on the bridge and tells the Balrog that he shall not pass, it doesn't end well for him. A really strong trend is not a great time to be doing that either. That strong trending move may have just ended of course, but if it hasn't then discretion in shorting this market would likely be the better part of valor. Once that trend ends, then normal trading can resume.

ES Sep hourly chart:

We are doing our free monthly Chart chat on Sunday 14th July at 4pm Eastern Time, covering the usual very wide range of trading instruments. If you'd like to attend you can register for that here.

I've stopped using a custom domain for my blogger posts so the address for those has reverted back to https://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/

If you are enjoying my analysis and would like to see it every day (including a daily premarket video) at theartofchart.net, which I co-founded in 2015, you can register for a 30 day free trial here. It is included in the Daily Video Service, which in turn is included in the Triple Play Service.

Bitcoin Low Here?

I was saying on Wednesday that I was likely to do a crypto post at least once a week in future, and here is the first, as crypto is looking very interesting today.

I've been covering BTCUSD, ETHUSD & SOLUSD every day in my premarket videos but haven't actually done a post on crypto before so those are the three I cover in detail,

Of those three obviously Bitcoin made a big new all time high in March and since then has been consolidating, with three close to that high retests in April, May and June, and then making a new low for this consolidation this morning.

What has very likely been happening over this time is that bitcoin has been forming a high quality bull flag. I have had the bull flag megaphone shown on the chart below marked on my chart for months now, and in May that appeared to be breaking up, but never made the target and reversed back down until this morning Bitcoin hit the flag support trendline again and rejected back up there. That original flag has therefore expanded, and there is now a perfect larger bull flag formed on Bitcoin and a candidate low in place for this likely bullish consolidation.

Bitcoin rejected back up at this low, from a break of the 3sd daily lower band and a possible daily RSI 14 buy signal is brewing, and this is now a very nice looking bullish setup.

BTCUSD daily chart:

How's that looking on ETHUSD? Not as obvious a setup but Ethereum also broke below the 3sd daily lower band, often a very nice buying opportunity and is rejecting from established support from the lows in April and May after what may have established a very decent descending triangle bull flag.

ETHUSD daily chart:

SOLUSD is a little trickier here. There is a very obvious falling wedge bull flag on Solana, but the support trendline is currently in the 114 area and was not hit this morning. However it was a very nice retest of the June low and has established a very decent quality double bottom setup. If Bitcoin & Ethereum are bottoming out here, then this is a very decent setup for Solana to do the same.

SOLUSD daily chart:

How much do these patterns mean on cryptos? A lot. I mentioned on Wednesday that cryptos are very classical chart friendly and as it happens there is a perfect example of that on the chart below.

This double bottom isn't the first reversal pattern to form on Solana in recent days, and marked on the chart below with a red dotted IHS neckline and target arrows is the IHS that was forming last week and broke up on Friday. My rule with these reversal patterns is that when the neckline has been broken, there are two targets, and one of those is very likely to be hit. If the break up holds, then the IHS target in this instance was at 180. If price then goes below the right shoulder low, 136.94 in this instance, then the IHS has failed and the target is a full retest of the bottom of the IHS pattern, in this case at 122.23, with Solana then making a low at 121.19 this morning. That followed my rules perfectly & you see this kind of pattern target delivery on cryptos a lot.

Could cryptos all go lower? Yes. On the bull scenario Bitcoin could bullishly underthrow that flag megaphone resistance, Ethereum could go a bit lower to establish a bull flag wedge, and Solana could extend lower to hit the main bull flag wedge support trendline. On the bear scenario all of these bull flag setups could just break down, which they do about 30% of the time.

Until we see that though, this is a very solid looking short term low on all of these and we are likely looking at least for a decent rally here. This may well turn out to be the low on a big bullish consolidation with a new all time high coming next on Bitcoin, and a decent shot at new all time highs next on both Ethereum and Solana. We shall see. :-)

SOLUSD hourly chart:

SPX is also looking interesting here & I thought I would add just one chart looking at the rising wedge on SPX. 

Both SPX and NDX closed at trendline resistance today and broke over that this morning. As you can see on the SPX chart below SPX has been holding over the trendline much of the day and the breaks up on SPX and NDX may be bearish overthrows of the kind often seen at highs.

On the bull side these may also just be breaks up, and you can see on the chart below that I have a possible alternate channel resistance trendline currently in the 5750-5800 area. If this is a break up, that would be the obvious next target, though I don't have an equivalent alternate target on NDX.

If this is a bullish overthrow though, this is the high, or very close to it, we have daily sell signals fixed or brewing on both SPX and NDX, and the overthrows would be telling us that on the next leg down the rising support trendlines on SPX and NDX should break, with that currently in the 5315 area on SPX and 17000 area on NDX. This could therefore be a significant high that could hold for a few months. We shall see next week & I'm leaning towards the bear scenario but very much keeping an open mind.

SPX daily BBs chart:

In my last post I mentioned my friend launching a product to help people navigate the crypto world and the first introduction webinar for that was on Wednesday. If that is something that might interest you and you missed the webinar you can see a recording of that here.

Everyone have a great weekend :-)

I've stopped using a custom domain for my blogger posts so the address for those has reverted back to https://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/

If you are enjoying my analysis and would like to see it every day (including a daily premarket video) at theartofchart.net, which I co-founded in 2015, you can register for a 30 day free trial here. It is included in the Daily Video Service, which in turn is included in the Triple Play Service.

There Is No Spoon

It has been a few weeks since my last post, as I've had a lot of stuff to sort out. That's pretty much done & I have returned.

As it happens, this doesn't look like a bad time to be coming back. My speciality is patterns and reversals and we have some nice patterns and potential reversals forming on NDX and SPX here. They might just deliver yet another break up, but for now we have a decent looking inflection point, and what might be a pretty decent reversal brewing here.

On the bigger picture I was saying at the start of the year that presidential election years in the US tend to lean bullish, and that has certainly been delivering so far in 2024. I'm not really expecting that to change, and if we do see a retracement here, I'd be leaning towards that being a bullish retracement, with at minimum likely all time high retests to come after that completes.

For the last few weeks this move up has been very narrow. The Russell 2000 high in 2024 was made in late March, and there has been no new all time high (ATH) since 2021. The Dow Industrials have made new all time highs this year but the last was a marginal new high in mid May retesting the new all time high also made in late March 2024. That has left a large and very nicely formed potential double top on Dow that might deliver a very nice move in the event that NDX and SPX reverse and deliver a frankly overdue retracement.

In terms of what has been driving US markets higher since RUT and INDU both stalled out in mid-May, that has essentially all been Tech, with NDX leading and SPX, which also includes a lot of Tech, being dragged up behind it.

Looking at NDX there is a very nice looking pattern setup here from the Oct 2022 low, with a very high quality rising megaphone resistance trendline that was tested and then retested at the last two new all time highs. If we see a high here, then the next obvious target would be a test of that rising megaphone support, currently in the 16750 area, though obviously that is a moving target currently rising at about 400 handles per month. I would also note that after the last marginal new ATH there is also a possible daily RSI 14 sell signal brewing on NDX, and a small a very high quality possible double top to go with that.

NDX daily BBs chart:

The last short term low was in April, and within the main rising megaphone on NDX from October 2022 is a smaller rising megaphone from April this year that has also tested resistance and has then formed a high quality nice double top. With the new all time high on NQ this morning, there are now possible daily RSI 14 sell signals brewing on both NDX and NQ.

NDX 15min chart:

The pattern setup is also nice on SPX, though not quite as nice as NDX, which has  very much been the leader since the  Oct 2022 low, and even more so since the Oct 2023 low. One thing I watch on SPX is the distance from the 45dma, as I tend to be looking for a possible short term high to form in the 4% to 5% range over the 45dma. That was hit a few weeks ago, along with the largest daily volume spike on the chart below dating back to summer 2017. That's far from a sure sign of reversal, but is often seen close to a significant high or low.

SPX daily 45dma chart:

On the daily SPX chart there is a very high quality rising wedge from the low in Oct 2023. Nothing solid from the low in Oct 2022, though there is a possible rising channel resistance trendline that has been hit and might hold.

in terms of the rising wedge from Oct 2023 though that is now being tested for the fifth time, so it is a high quality trendline and while this is an inflection point, and we could very much see a break up, this an increasingly nice looking setup for a high here. Daily sell signals have already fixed on the SPX daily RSI 14 and RSI 5, and with the new all time high on ES today, there is also now a possible daily RSI 14 sell signal brewing on ES. If wedge resistance holds, then the next obvious target is wedge support, currently in the 5310 area.

SPX daily BBs chart:

On the SPX chart there is a decent quality rising wedge formed from the April low, and, if these highs can hold through another trading day of holiday tape this week, there is again a nice looking short term double top formed. If we see that play out next week, then that could get the downside ball rolling, and deliver a break below this shorter term rising support currently in the 5385 area. 

SPX 15min chart:

I'm planning to start posting three or four times a week again, but with a difference as I'm planning to start covering a much wider range of instruments. Expect posts on bonds, precious metals, energy, currencies and on occasion, the minor commodities. One of the main additions though will be crypto, which I've been covering in detail on my premarket videos for a while now, and is surprisingly classical chart friendly. With the launch of crypto ETF coming in the next few months, cryptos are moving into the trading mainstream.

I've not traded cryptos much in the past but I'm planning to start doing that seriously over the next year or two. I'm not going to be involved with running it but I have a friend launching a product to help people navigate the crypto world and the first introduction webinar for that is at 7pm EST tonight. If that sounds like something that might interest you then you can register for that here.

I've stopped using a custom domain for my blogger posts so the address for those has reverted back to https://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/

If you are enjoying my analysis and would like to see it every day (including a daily premarket video) at theartofchart.net, which I co-founded in 2015, you can register for a 30 day free trial here. It is included in the Daily Video Service, which in turn is included in the Triple Play Service.