Retest, Probably

No retest of the highs yesterday, but I'm still optimistic about seeing that today or Monday. ES and TF both look encouraging for seeing that, though NQ is showing a more bearish lean.

On ES there is a likely bullish triangle forming that should deliver a retest. I have triangle support currently in the 2253.5 area and will be looking for support there if reached. ES Mar 60min chart:

NQ is the joker in the pack today, with a perfect double top setup with an ideal target at the 38.2% fib retrace target. if we are going to see high retests on ES and TF without breaking this setup on NQ, then NQ is going to have to underperform the other two significantly today. That said, so far today NQ has been significantly underperforming against the other two. NQ Mar 60min chart:

Since I capped the TF chart below TF has broken up to 1380 and should be on the way to that high retest attempt. This is a bull flag break up which will make it close to the retest 80%+ of the time, though I'd note that on a conviction break above, the secondary flag target would be a lot higher.  TF Mar 60min chart:

SPX already made the ideal December high target earlier this week, so why is a retest important? Well without that retest on SPX there can be no negative RSI divergence on the daily RSI. On an exact retest of the high or better some really nice RSI 14 and RSI 5 sell signals start brewing on SPX. A lower high on RUT would be ok though, as there are already daily sell signals brewing there. A retest also delivers a lower risk short entry of course.

Stan and I did our webinar at theartofchart.net with forecasts on indices, currencies and bonds for next year and beyond yesterday, and if you missed that, the recording has been posted on this page here. We are doing a second webinar an hour after the close tonight with our forecasts for energies, metals and commodities and if you'd like to attend you can register for that on this page here.