Snapshots

Just a quick post as I've been fighting the clock all day today, with a review of the pattern setup on SPX/ES, NDX/NQ and RUT/TF with the break over resistance last night.

On SPX the short term pattern from 2352 is a decent rising wedge. Wedge support currently in the 2410 area and a 15min RSI 14 sell signal fixed in the last half hour today. At the close a possible small double top forming looking for 2405/6 area on a sustained break below 2411.83.  SPX 15min chart:

On ES there are now decent rising wedge resistance and support trendlines, with wedge support now in the 2408 area. A possible 60min sell signal is brewing. ES Jun 60min chart:

Another decent rising wedge on NDX. Wedge support currently in the 5750 area. A 15min RSI 14 sell signal fixed in the last half hour today. NDX 15min chart:

There's a very decent rising wedge formed on NQ that held the low perfectly this morning but then broke up at the test of wedge resistance to test bigger picture channel resistance, which has held perfectly so far.  If that continues to hold, then the break up from the wedge was a likely bearish overthrow, and NQ made a strong candidate for swing high at the high today, with the obvious next target within the channel at channel support, currently in the 5600 area.  NQ Jun 60min chart:

On RUT wedge resistance held well at the high today and wedge support has broken and is backtesting the break. Possible wedge turns channel support now in the 1380 area. RUT 15min chart:

TF broke over yesterday's resistance at monthly pivot last night but failed to convert that to support. A 60min sell signal fixed this morning and rising wedge support broke. Potential wedge turns channel support currently in the 1372 area. TF Jun 60min chart:

Were the swing highs made today? Very possibly yes, as this is a strong candidate for swing high on NQ, and it's pretty obvious that NDX/NQ is driving this bull bus. However my comments about holiday tape yesterday remain valid today. I was asking around today to see if anyone could remember a strong reversal down in the two trading days before a holiday and came up empty. I can't recall any instances myself. If the swing high is in then any decline this week may be modest, and if this week's other cycle trend day tomorrow delivers a strong move, it's hard to see that move heading south.

I really like this as a candidate swing high on NQ. We'll see whether my channel can survive into the weekend. Any significant break over 5800 on NQ would kill it.

Stan and I are doing a free public webinar at theartofchart.net an hour after the close tonight on Trader Psychology in the second of our Managing Risk webinars, and if you'd like to attend then you can register for that on our May Free Webinars page. The video for last week's Big Five webinar is also posted there. I would also note that this week's edition of The Weekly Call is posted and that the model portfolio there is up 178% over the last six months, looking well on course to make our target minimum 200% return over the first year. As and when that target is reached we're thinking of making the strategy there a bit less conservative. That's a free weekly service and if you trade futures I'd suggest adding it to your reading list.