Once More Into The (Potential) Breach Dear Friends

The rising wedges that I was looking at on Thursday broke down and have been retesting the all time highs last night on NDX, and this morning on SPX, with another possibly coming on RUT though Stan's thinking lower high there. We are looking for a failure today on SPX anywhere from a marginal new high up into the 2482 area, and so it's possible that this short term high is already made. On the bigger picture this is a possible swing high, but we'll have to see whether any serious breakdown can be sustained from here. This has been a very persistent uptrend.

On SPX a 60min RSI 14 sell signal is now brewing, though a few handles higher into the short term high would improve the look of this divergence. SPX is testing trendline resistance. SPX 60min chart:

On NDX a very decently formed 60min sell signal is brewing. A retest of last night's globex all time high would set a possible 60min sell signal brewing on NQ as well, and we may need to see that. . NDX 60min chart:

The ES, NQ and TF futures charts below were done an hour before the RTH open for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. If you are interested in trying our services a 30 day free trial is available here.

ES looks cooked here. A retrace and higher high on negative divergence would improve the high. ES Sep 60min chart:

NQ may already be breaking down. Under 5900 the swing high is likely made. Until then I'm wondering about a possible retest of last night's high to set a possible 60min sell signal brewing. NQ Sep 60min chart:

TF made the 60min sell signal target and is close to a retest of the all time high there. That retest isn't required before this high but we may see it anyway. TF Sep 60min chart:

We should see this high today and, if seen, this will be a decent looking candidate swing high, though it's obviously been hard to sustain a downtrend long on equity indices so far this year. We'll see how this one goes.

Stan and I did the fourth webinar in our 'Managing Risk In Trading' series at theartofchart.net last Thursday, and if you would like to see the recording that is posted on our July Free Webinars page. This webinar looks at Stop Systems and Trade Repair. This week's edition of The Weekly Call is posted and the model portfolio there is up 170% in the seven months to June 23rd, obviously well on course to make our target minimum 200% return over the first year. As and when that target is reached we're thinking of making the strategy there a bit less conservative. That's a free weekly service and if you trade futures I'd suggest adding it to your reading list.