Late post today but I'm not feeling well.
There has been a strong daily intraday setup since Xmas Eve of an early push higher followed by weakness near the close and overnight. That early push up has been slow to get going this morning but if we are going to see any real retracement this week the odds strongly favor tomorrow for the main part of that retracement. If we do see a push up today then I'll be looking for short entries this afternoon to take advantage of the strongly bearish stats for tomorrow.
The first main target on a retracement would be a test of the 50 hour MA and that closed at 2070.5 last night. That support may well hold as support before a run back up to at least test the highs. SPX 60min chart:
Of the four runs over the 5 DMA from significant lows this year two closed back below the 5 DMA on the eighth day of the run. Today is day nine on SPX and this is not likely to be a long run IMO. I'm expecting SPX to close back below the 5 DMA today or tomorrow and that closed at 2086 yesterday. SPX daily 5 DMA chart:
The last few days have been looking like short term topping action. That's likely to resolve into a retracement in the next few trading hours, though that retracement may not get any further than a test of the 50 hour MA. After the retracement I'll be looking for new highs and the test of major resistance in the 2100-20 area.
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