- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Thursday, 10 September 2015

Daily Middle Band Retest Fails

The decline yesterday was a hard fail at the retest of the daily middle band on many indices, and the close yesterday, and the open today was significantly under the SPX 5 day MA. On my 5DMA three day rule stat we should now see a retest of the last low at 1911, and 95%+ a lower low there, before there is another test of yesterday's high at 1988.63. I have found no exceptions to this rule since the start of 2007 from at least 40 instances so I'm expecting a retest of 1911 soon, very possibly today. SPX daily 5DMA chart:
If we see the retest of 1911 then Stan is looking for the next short term low in the 1880-90 area, and then most likely a large bounce there before new lows. SPX 60min chart:
Today is a cycle trend day today and that means that there are 70% odds that one direction will dominate the day. This would often be a full trend day. Does the 5DMA stat rule out a trend up day? No, but it makes it unlikely. If we see a full trend day today it should be down. I'm looking for an AM high that fails into a sustained move down today. Nasty tape the last few days though so don't get too married to any trade here.
Posted by Springheel Jack at 09:45
Labels: , , , ,

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)