AM Low Then Go

That was a strong retracement yesterday and the H&S targets that I was talking about on ES and NQ yesterday morning slightly sceptically have been made. What happens today is very important as the scenario that Stan and I are running here is that ES has broken up from a triangle into last week's high, and the sequence after this kind of triangle break is a backtest of the triangle, which is happening now, and then the main triangle thrust up begins. Ideally that means we see a low on ES this morning, very possibly reverse yesterday's move entirely over the rest of the day, and then thrust up to a retest of the all time high over the rest of the week. After that triangle thrust ends we should see a full retracement back to the level of this morning's low and then we'd expect that to be the start of the larger retracement down that I've been talking about.

If you're wondering how that looks then this is almost exactly the setup I was projecting on TNX a month ago and I show that example on the video below, so you can have a look at that to see a very nice example there playing out.

Assuming that the triangle scenario delivers, I'd like to see rising support in the 2131 hold, and invalidation of the triangle scenario comes on a break below 2121 (approx 2128 SPX). ES Dec 60min:

Pre Market Video for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net - I'm posting these publicly every day for the remainder of September as a promo. I've been having trouble embedding these videos on blogger and it seems to have given up trying altogether now so the direct link to that is here. Any of you in the GC trade should watch it and any of you trading bonds should really watch the last part of the video where I'm looking at ZB and TNX.