Deceptively Close

I was saying on Wednesday last week that ES, then six handles under the all time high, was deceptively close to the all time high, and that was because ES was already making heavy weather of getting through to retesting it. Nine days later ES is seven handles under the ATH at the time of writing, and has been kicking round in this area for a couple of days while we are still waiting for that retest.

The pattern setup here for delivering that retest is good, and the falling megaphone that has formed over the last few days is a likely bull flag that should deliver it soon after the break of megaphone resistance, which was tested again on the NFP numbers this morning but again wasn't broken. A break over 2268 today would be a clear break. It would be nice to see that break today. ES Mar 60min chart:

NQ was looking more bearish this morning when I capped this chart before NFP. Since then NQ has moved up nicely, the 60min sell signal is no longer brewing, and the obvious target above is the all time high retest there. Just above the retest is the never before hit 5000 level on NQ and that may be decent resistance. NQ Mar 60min chart:

On my TF Wednesday night notes (for Daily Video Subscribers at theartofchart.net) I was looking for a backtest into the triangle and we've seen that, with support found at the weekly pivot. On my premarket video this morning (link at bottom of this post) I was talking about a possible retest of the weekly pivot again today to make the second low of a double bottom and that may well be in progress now. As long as that area holds as support on the retest, or at worst the monthly pivot at 1352.50 then the next target on TF is the retest of the all time high there, though on a break below 1352.50 this bullish triangle setup would flip bearish. TF Mar 60min chart:

This high window on SPX runs through to the middle of next week and we should see the all time high retest by then. If we don't then the chances are this is a lower high and SPX would likely break down without the retest.

I haven't posted one of my premarket videos for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net so far this year so you can see today's here. As well as ES, NQ & TF that also covers DX, CL, NG, GC & ZB of course, and there are some very interesting reversals in progress at the moment. Our 20% off sale on annual subscriptions runs through to Sunday night, delivering effectively four free months, and if you're interested the discount code is Xmas20. We ran a similar sale a year ago and of the twelve subscribers who signed up in the first week of January last year, all have renewed (at that offer price) this year which is a nice vote of confidence.

Stan and I are doing our monthly public (free to all) Chart Chat on Sunday covering 35 or so instruments over most main markets and if you're interested in attending you can sign up for that here. There's a link to a two week free trial on the same page.

No post yesterday as I'd been laid low by some dodgy seafood on Wednesday night. Fortunately these things pass quickly, no pun intended, so I'm back to my usual routine today. Everyone have a great weekend. :-)

PS. Testing Flickr as an alternative to screencast.com for the expanded charts. Feedback invited.