He Went Galumphing Back

As far as I'm aware the only nonsense word from Lewis Carroll's Jabberwocky to make it into general usage was 'galumphing' a wonderful word evoking something large and ungainly achieving speed without grace. Still a favorite word of mine, though not one I get a chance to use often.

NDX has reversed back up on a setup I show on the NQ daily chart below, and the obvious read is that NDX is galumphing back to a retest of the all time high, though NDX still looks heavy and might fail to deliver on that.

In the meantime SPX delivered a higher high and the possible daily RSI 5 / NYMO sell signal that I was hoping to see start brewing on a higher high is now brewing, and should fix as and when this move up tops out. SPX daily chart:

So where will this move top out? Well there is likely unfinished business above at the rising wedge resistance trendline now in the 2520 area. I've mentioned that before and that is no far away now. Wedges can overthrow, so Stan is thinking that an overthrow could potentially go as high at 2529. SPX 60min chart:

The ES, NQ and TF futures charts below were done two hours before the RTH open for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. If you are interested in trying our services a 30 day free trial is available here.

On ES a rising channel has been established from the low this week and channel support may need a test before any next leg up. That channel support is now in the 2499 area, just under the weekly pivot at 2499.75. ES Dec 60min chart:

On Monday night I noted on the chart below that NQ had established a support trendline that was a possible falling megaphone / bull flag support trendline in NQ was to reconvert the monthly pivot at 5920 to support. NQ delivered that and my main scenario as long as that remains the case is that NQ is on the way back to flag megaphone resistance, currently in the 6015 area, and on a break over that resistance would look for a retest of the all time high at 6025. NQ has backtested 5920 as support extensively today and that has held as support so far. NQ Dec 60min chart:

TF broke through all shorter term trendline resistance yesterday and I don't have any obvious resistance levels to watch above. Stan is expecting a test of 1500 on this move. TF Dec 60min chart:

Stan and I are doing the second of two 'Trading Toolbox' free educational webinars an hour after the close tonight at theartofchart.net, and this one will be looking at the use of momentum based tools in day and swing trading, including the RSI based buy and sell signals I developed a few years ago and refer to a lot in my posts. If you would like to attend then you can register for that on our September Free Webinars page.

And, As In Uffish Thought I Stood

The swing high may be in, and price has a couple of decisions to make early this week to show us whether that is now the case. All charts were done either yesterday (RTH charts) or before the open this morning (futures charts) for subscribers at theartofchart.net.

SPX is on an hourly RSI 14 sell signal, and short term rising wedge support was tested twice and held as support on Friday. That has broken this morning, and subject to any short term topping process the next big trendline target is larger rising wedge support, currently in the 2455 area. SPX 60min chart:

RUT is also on an hourly RSI 14 sell signal and I noted the possible unfinished business above at the full retest of the all time high. A marginal new all time high has been made this morning, so that is no longer unfinished business, though the resistance trendline isn't high quality and RUT will need to break rising wedge support, currently in the 1432.5 area. RUT 60min chart:

NDX has been the weakest of the three indices and NDX has now broken down from decent double top support at 5890. If the break down is sustained then the double top target is larger double top support in the 5750 area. NDX daily chart:

On ES the overnight high backtested broken rising wedge support and the morning high has established the new weekly pivot at 2499.75 as resistance. If 2490 now converts to resistance then ES could trend down today. ES Dec 60min chart:

NQ has reached the first double top target at 5875, and the second double top target at 5775 has fixed. Possible falling channel support has broken. NQ Dec 60min chart:

TF has made a new all time high this morning and established a decent resistance trendline that wasn't one of the options shown on the chart below. I have a possible H&S neckline in the 1438/9 area and rising wedge support currently in the 1427 area. TF Dec 60min chart:

The odds now favor the swing high being in, barring possible high retests as part of the short term topping process.

Stan and I are doing the second of two 'Trading Toolbox' free educational webinars an hour after the close on Thursday at theartofchart.net, and this one will be looking at the use of momentum based tools in day and swing trading, including the RSI based buy and sell signals I developed a few years ago and refer to a lot in my posts. If you would like to attend then you can register for that on our September Free Webinars page.

This week's edition of The Weekly Call is posted and the model portfolio there is up 212% in the eleven months to September 25th, now slightly over our target minimum 200% return over the first year. As that target has been reached we're thinking of making the strategy there a bit less conservative for the second year. That's a free weekly service and if you trade futures I'd suggest adding it to your reading list.

So Rested He By The TumTum Tree

Stan and I are doing the first of two 'Trading Toolbox' free educational webinars an hour after the close today at theartofchart.net, and this one will be looking at the use of bollinger bands in day and swing trading. If you would like to attend then you can register for that on our September Free Webinars page. 

After an interesting start this morning ES settled down into the comatose tape that has been characteristic of afternoons recently. The morning was definitely interesting though, with the ES rising wedge support that was tested perfectly at the low yesterday breaking this morning. That hasn't followed through yet, but may follow through soon, ideally after just one more all time high retest. ES Dec 60min chart: 

The equivalent short term rising wedge support on SPX is now in the 2495 area and, as and when we see that, would be a confirming break. In the short term SPX has been testing trend support at the 50 hour MA, now at 2501, and that's holding so far. There is still a decent case, if possible, for a test of larger rising wedge resistance and that's now in the 2516 area. SPX 60min chart: 

Why would one more all time high be ideal? Well the last move up killed the negative divergence on the RSI 5 and it would be unusual to see a significant high without a daily sell signal on SPX. One more new all time high should set another daily RSI 5 / NYMO sell signal brewing. SPX daily chart: 

NQ is my concern here, as it is looking significantly wounded. A clear double top setup has made creditable efforts both yesterday and today to break down and if NQ can convert the monthly pivot at 5920 to resistance then NQ could start a serious slide down that would likely pull the other indices with it. On the bull side a 60min buy signal has fixed and is trying to reconfirm on the lower low today. If NQ can recover over the weekly pivot at 5985 then I still have an open bull flag target at the all time high retest (on NQ) at 6025. That could be a nice finish for this move, if NQ can manage just one more heave. NQ Dec 60min chart: 

Today and tomorrow are cycle trend days, which means that there are 70% odds that either buyers or sellers will dominate the tape. That didn't deliver today, which increases the odds that we will see a directional day tomorrow. Given the setup at the time of writing, that could go either way. 

This week's edition of The Weekly Call is posted and the model portfolio there is up 206% in the ten months to September 10th, now slightly over our target minimum 200% return over the first year. As that target has been reached we're thinking of making the strategy there a bit less conservative. That's a free weekly service and if you trade futures I'd suggest adding it to your reading list.

Frabjous Day?

If you don't immediately recognise the title for today's post then I must first warn you that your knowledge of Lewis Carroll's literary works is dangerously deficient.

So why am I thinking of Alice in Wonderland today? Well it is Fed day, and for me the Fed always bring Wonderland to mind. I was talking to my older son a few weeks ago explaining that in the same way that lawyers trained for years to achieve a state where they could swallow (figurative) camels and yet still strain at gnats, economists went through a process where after years of patient study that seemed to require at least a PhD, they achieved a state where measures that looked reckless or even suicidal to the less trained eye were revealed as both sensible and necessary.

He asked whether the Fed's track record at steering the economy in the past was impressive, and I told him that it had delivered a succession of ever greater disasters over recent decades. He then asked why people still nonetheless trusted the Fed to deliver policy, and I replied that people had to believe that the Fed knew what they are doing, as the alternative was just too terrifying. I added that the Fed never admitted to making a mistake, which reassured many, and that Ben Bernanke had an impressively bushy beard that had inspired confidence, though Yellen had needed to manage without one so far for technical reasons.

Having delivered a possibly fatal blow to whatever remained of my son's childish belief in the rationality of adults we moved onto other topics. :-).

I've been writing about a likely inflection point coming on equity markets for a couple of weeks now and we are in that inflection point now. The Fed meeting today, together with the expected statement on the gradual unwinding of the massive QE over the last few years, could obviously push markets in one direction or the other.

The pattern setup and cycles lean towards a bearish resolution here, and on SPX that is expressed in the 70% bearish rising wedge that is forming. Ideally I'd like to see a touch of rising wedge resistance in the 2515 area before any turn but the 2509 SPX target that I have been mentioning has already been reached (rounding up) with the two intraday highs at 2508.82 and 2508.85. That may be close enough. SPX 60min chart:

The ES, NQ and TF futures charts below were done two hours before the RTH open for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. If you are interested in trying our services a 30 day free trial is available here.

Trendline resistance on ES is in the same area, though I'd note that on ES that target trendline has already been tested. ES Dec 60min chart:

NQ has been the weakest of the three indices on the way up, and has managed to convert the weekly pivot to resistance, which is not encouraging for the prospects for further upside. I do still have an open bull flag target at a retest of the all time high at 6025, though after a number of near misses just below over the last week I am wondering if NQ can reach it before the expected turn downwards. NQ Dec 60min chart:

On TF, I would ideally like to see a test of 1450/1 before the turn as that would deliver a full retest of the all time high on RUT and a very nice looking double top setup there. TF Dec 60min chart:

Obviously there is always a choice to be made at inflection points and though this one very much leans bearish, price always has the final word and equities way go the other way and break up. There is no such thing as certainty in terms of price direction. That said, subject to whatever the Fed may be talking about today, deranged or otherwise, this is a nice short setup and I'm expecting this to break down. Tomorrow and Friday are both cycle trend days, so if we see a break downwards this week, that could be a strong move.

Stan and I are doing the first of two 'Trading Toolbox' free educational webinars an hour after the close tomorrow at theartofchart.net, and this one will be looking at the use of bollinger bands in day and swing trading. If you would like to attend then you can register for that on our September Free Webinars page. This week's edition of The Weekly Call is posted and the model portfolio there is up 206% in the ten months to September 10th, now slightly over our target minimum 200% return over the first year. As that target has been reached we're thinking of making the strategy there a bit less conservative. That's a free weekly service and if you trade futures I'd suggest adding it to your reading list.

Finally Breaking 2500

After a memorably boring four day range consolidation Tuesday through Friday last week, SPX finally broke up and tagged 2500 at the close on Friday. This should follow through to the upside, short term at least, and I have some targets to watch, and a warning that this move over 2500 may well not last the week.

On SPX the obvious trendline target is rising wedge resistance, currently in the 2514 area, and a strong match with rising wedge resistance on the ES chart. On the daily chart (not shown below), there is a possible RSI 5 / NYMO sell signal brewing, but the negative divergence is slight and might well be lost on a green close today or tomorrow. SPX 60min chart:

On NDX (and RUT) there is a more robust looking daily RSI 5 sell signal brewing and there is a possible nested double tops setup forming here that might deliver a strong rejection near the all time high retest, though I'd be surprised to see that rejection before NQ reaches the bull flag target at the all time high retest there at 6025. NDX daily chart:

On RUT there is another robust looking possible daily RSI 5 sell signal brewing. The obvious target above is the retest of the all time high, but unless RUT can start to outperform SPX and NDX this week then I'm doubtful about that being reached. Maybe. RUT daily chart:

The ES, NQ and TF futures charts below were done two hours before the RTH open for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. If you are interested in trying our services a 30 day free trial is available here.

On ES the obvious trendline target above is rising wedge resistance, now in the 2512 area and a strong match with the trendline resistance on the SPX chart. ES Dec 60min chart:

On NQ there is unfinished business above at the fixed bull flag target at retest of the all time high at 6025. Not expecting a serious reversal before that target is hit but we may see one not long after it is. NQ Dec 60min chart:

TF reached the first of my three higher probability candidate resistance trendlines at the close on Friday and has broken slightly higher overnight. If TF can reach the next one up that is now in the 1446 area. TF Dec 60min chart:

Ideally looking for a high by Wed/Thurs this week that delivers at least a retracement into the rising wedge support trendline from the Feb 2016 low, currently in the 2390 area, and lower if that support breaks. We'll see how that goes. :-)

Stan and I are doing the first of two 'Trading Toolbox' free educational webinars an hour after the close on Thursday at theartofchart.net, and this one will be looking at the use of bollinger bands in day and swing trading. If you would like to attend then you can register for that on our September Free Webinars page. This week's edition of The Weekly Call is posted and the model portfolio there is up 206% in the ten months to September 10th, now slightly over our target minimum 200% return over the first year. As that target has been reached we're thinking of making the strategy there a bit less conservative. That's a free weekly service and if you trade futures I'd suggest adding it to your reading list.

We've introduced a new service in beta two weeks ago at theartofchart.com called Jacob's Ladders and that's going to be freely available for a couple of months before likely going subscription only at a price to be decided upon, but intended to be inexpensive. The system is fibonacci-based and generates intraday levels likely to be important on a wide variety of futures. I've been using it for months and it's really very good. If you're interested in trying it you can see the introduction page here, and you can see the review for last week here.  Strong recommend to have a look if you trade futures intraday, or can use an powerful tool for picking entries on longer term swing trades.

Waiting Again

It's been a generally dull week, and since the bull flag on SPX made target with a new all time high there hasn't been much movement in either direction. We are still ideally looking for another leg up into the 2509 area but the setup for that last leg up is starting to sour slightly, with hourly sell signals already fixed on ES and the SPX RSI 5. The move should really be in the next couple of days if we are going to see it without a significant retracement first. SPX 60min chart:

We are wondering about a possible all time high retest on RUT. There is still an open RSI 14 buy signal, but there is now also a possible RSI 5 sell signal brewing as well. RUT daily chart:

The ES, NQ and TF futures charts below were done an hour before the RTH open for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. If you are interested in trying our services a 30 day free trial is available here.

There is a very obvious target above on ES at rising wedge resistance, currently in the 2506 area and that's a strong match with Stan's 2509 target. ES Dec 60min chart:

The last remaining upside target is the bull flag target at the retest of the all time high on NQ at 6025. That should be hit before any significant reversal and there is a possible setup for a hard reversal there. NQ Dec 60min chart:

I've drawn in the three best possible resistance trendline options on TF. The all time high retest there looks ambitious but might be doable. TF Dec 60min chart:

Stan and I are doing our our monthly free public Big Five (AAPL, AMZN, FB, NFLX, TSLA) webinar an hour after the close today at theartofchart.net, and if you would like to attend then you can register for that on our September Free Webinars page. This week's edition of The Weekly Call is posted and the model portfolio there is up 205% in the ten months to August 31st, now slightly over our target minimum 200% return over the first year. As that target has been reached we're thinking of making the strategy there a bit less conservative. That's a free weekly service and if you trade futures I'd suggest adding it to your reading list.

We've introduced a new service in beta last week at theartofchart.com called Jacob's Ladders and that's going to be freely available for a couple of months before likely going subscription only at a price to be decided upon, but intended to be inexpensive. The system is fibonacci-based and generates intraday levels likely to be important on a wide variety of futures. I've been using it for months and it's really very good. If you're interested in trying it you can see the introduction page here.  Strong recommend to have a look if you trade futures.

After The Intermission

Last week was an in-between week but the key support levels all held, and after the strong open this week SPX is now close to the bull flag target at the retest of the all time high. I show below that another bull flag channel has now also broken up on NQ, and I'm expecting an all time high retest there as well. SPX 60min chart:

We are looking for a continuation upwards on SPX ideally to a target in the 2509 area before a strong reversal from there but I would note the possible nested double tops setup forming on the NDX chart. We could see a hard fail at the third high of this possible nested double top, and I'll be watching for that. NDX 60min chart:

The ES, NQ and TF futures charts below were done an hour before the RTH open for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. If you are interested in trying our services a 30 day free trial is available here.

ES made the higher high into 2478 that I was looking at in the pre-market and went higher from there.  ES Dec 60min chart:

The NQ bull flag channel that I was looking at this morning broke up and NQ is now close to a retest of the all time high. At the moment that looks like NQ is trailing SPX to that target slightly. NQ Dec 60min chart:

TF has made the double bottom target at 1417/8. Likely to go higher I think though a retest of the all time high might be overambitious on this index. TF Sep 60min chart:

We've introduced a new service in beta last week at theartofchart.com called Jacob's Ladders and that's going to be freely available for a couple of months before likely going subscription only at a price to be decided upon, but intended to be inexpensive. The system is fibonacci-based and generates intraday levels likely to be important on a wide variety of futures. I've been using it for months and it's really very good. If you're interested in trying it you can see the introduction page here, the ongoing page you should bookmark is here, and updates are being done during the day at the public theartofchart.net twitter feed here. Strong recommend to have a look if you trade futures.

Stan and I are doing our our monthly free public Big Five (AAPL, AMZN, FB, NFLX, TSLA)webinar an hour after the close on Thursday at theartofchart.net, and if you would like to attend then you can register for that on our September Free Webinars page. This week's edition of The Weekly Call is posted and the model portfolio there is up 205% in the ten months to August 31st, now slightly over our target minimum 200% return over the first year. As that target has been reached we're thinking of making the strategy there a bit less conservative. That's a free weekly service and if you trade futures I'd suggest adding it to your reading list.

If, Then

A couple of years ago a long-term reader described me as an 'if, then' analyst, and that was a decent description. The short term setup here is very much an 'if, then' setup. If short term support holds, then the rally should resume into the flag target at the retest of the all time high.

So where is that support? On the hourly chart that is at the 50 hour MA, currently at 2461 and with the 200 hour MA just below. That's been tested in the last day or so with more enthusiasm than I would prefer, but that's holding so far. SPX 60min chart:

In the short term there is a possible H&S formed or forming that could take SPX through short term support into another test of the daily middle band, currently at 2451. That's the alternate scenario if SPX tests short term support until it breaks. A break over yesterday's intraday high at 2469 would kill the setup. SPX 5min chart:

If short term support holds the setup on RUT here would be ideal for starting the next leg up. The low on RUT this morning was at rising support from the 21st Aug low and that has confirmed the trendline and established a possible rising megaphone from that low. If RUT is to retest the all time high, and there's no open target there but it would be an obvious next move, then that could be retested within the next move up within this megaphone. A break below rising megaphone support, currently in the 1395 area, would kill this setup, but until then this is a decent bull setup, and a possible 60min RSI 5 buy signal is brewing. RUT 60min chart:

The ES, NQ and TF futures charts below were done an hour before the RTH open for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. If you are interested in trying our services a 30 day free trial is available here.

On ES key short term support is at the weekly and monthly pivots, both at 2458.25. These were tested at the lows yesterday but not so far today. ES Sep 60min chart:

On NQ key short term support is at the weekly pivot there, again tested yesterday and not so far today. Both ES and TF are arguably breaking up from bull flags from the highs. NQ Sep 60min chart: 

TF has retested Tuesday's low and a decent double bottom setup has formed that on a break over 1408 would look for a retest of last week's high at 1420. TF Sep 60min chart:

I like the long setup here and if the dip buyers can get moving this may well be the start of the move into all time high retests across all of SPX/ES, NDX/NQ and RUT/TF. A break of short term support looks for another retest of the daily middle band on SPX and perhaps lower.

Stan and I did our monthly free public Chart Chat webinar at theartofchart.net on Sunday, and if you would like to see the recording then you can see that on our September Free Webinars page. This week's edition of The Weekly Call is posted and the model portfolio there is up 205% in the ten months to August 31st, now slightly over our target minimum 200% return over the first year. As that target has been reached we're thinking of making the strategy there a bit less conservative. That's a free weekly service and if you trade futures I'd suggest adding it to your reading list.

Daily Middle Band Backtested

Yesterday morning's bear flags broke down harder than expected and on SPX the move delivered a hard test of the daily middle band. That's not inherently bearish as long as that holds as support and it did. Unless that changes the obvious target remains a full retest of the all time high. SPX daily chart:

Nothing so dramatic on RUT, with just a modest backtest of the 100dma. I'm very much wondering whether RUT is going to deliver an all time high retest with the ATH retest on SPX. RUT daily chart:

The ES, NQ and TF futures charts below were done an hour before the RTH open for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. If you are interested in trying our services a 30 day free trial is available here.

ES has broken possible bull flag resistance, but without any significant follow through so far. The morning low was a backtest of double support at the weekly and monthly pivots, and those held perfectly. ES Sep 60min chart:

NQ retested double support at the weekly and monthly pivots more aggressively but they held nicely. Falling/flag resistance has also been broken on NQ but again with no follow-through so far. NQ Sep 60min chart:

The setup on TF could still be a bear flag forming. Nice backtest of the weekly pivot at the low this morning. TF Sep 60min chart:

Overall I'm not seeing anything here yet to make me think that the next move isn't a retest of the all time high on SPX. No sign yet that the open bull flag target there on SPX isn't going to happen. First support is the weekly and monthly pivots marked on these ES, NQ and TF charts. After that it is key that SPX holds the daily middle band on SPX, currently at 2451/2, on a daily closing basis. On breaks below an alternate more bearish scenario might well be playing out.

Stan and I did our monthly free public Chart Chat webinar on Sunday, and if you would like to see the recording then you can see that on our September Free Webinars page. This week's edition of The Weekly Call is posted and the model portfolio there is up 205% in the ten months to August 31st, now slightly over our target minimum 200% return over the first year. As that target has been reached we're thinking of making the strategy there a bit less conservative. That's a free weekly service and if you trade futures I'd suggest adding it to your reading list.

H-Bomb News Permitting

I was talking in my last post on Wednesday morning about the bull flag channel on SPX that then broke up with a minimum target at a retest of the all time high and that is still unfinished business above that should be hit, subject of course to a negative development in the ongoing megalomaniac sociopath with an H-Bomb news stream. SPX 60min chart:

NDX made all upside targets last week at the retest of the all time high, but there's still an open RSI 14 buy signal on the RUT daily chart that is likely to deliver some more upside and may deliver an all time high retest there of course, RUT daily chart:

The ES, NQ and TF futures charts below were done an hour before the RTH open for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. If you are interested in trying our services a 30 day free trial is available here.

The key level on ES this week is clearly 2458.25, with both the new weekly and monthly pivots at that exact number this week. The action since the news gap down looks like a small bear flag forming so the odds are decent that level will be tested today or tomorrow. ES Sep 60min chart:

Similar setup on NQ with the same broken rising wedge and short term, likely bear flag forming. Again weekly and monthly pivot are close and in effect action as double support. NQ Sep 60min chart:

There is still an open 60min sell signal on TF, but I'm doubtful about that reaching the weekly and monthly pivot support area there. TF Sep 60min chart:

The pattern setup here is a clear retracement with unfinished business above, news permitting of course. Ideally that delivers a test of 2458.25 ES today that holds, give or take three or four handles, and then delivers the all time high retest later this week or early next week. I'm assuming that we see that retest until demonstrated otherwise but I'm not expecting much more than that. Hopefully that gets clearer on the way there.

Stan and I did our monthly free public Chart Chat webinar on Sunday,and if you would like to see the recording then you can see that on our September Free Webinars page. This week's edition of The Weekly Call is posted and the model portfolio there is up 205% in the ten months to August 31st, now slightly over our target minimum 200% return over the first year. As that target has been reached we're thinking of making the strategy there a bit less conservative. That's a free weekly service and if you trade futures I'd suggest adding it to your reading list.