Daily Middle Band Backtested

Yesterday morning's bear flags broke down harder than expected and on SPX the move delivered a hard test of the daily middle band. That's not inherently bearish as long as that holds as support and it did. Unless that changes the obvious target remains a full retest of the all time high. SPX daily chart:

Nothing so dramatic on RUT, with just a modest backtest of the 100dma. I'm very much wondering whether RUT is going to deliver an all time high retest with the ATH retest on SPX. RUT daily chart:

The ES, NQ and TF futures charts below were done an hour before the RTH open for Daily Video Service subscribers at theartofchart.net. If you are interested in trying our services a 30 day free trial is available here.

ES has broken possible bull flag resistance, but without any significant follow through so far. The morning low was a backtest of double support at the weekly and monthly pivots, and those held perfectly. ES Sep 60min chart:

NQ retested double support at the weekly and monthly pivots more aggressively but they held nicely. Falling/flag resistance has also been broken on NQ but again with no follow-through so far. NQ Sep 60min chart:

The setup on TF could still be a bear flag forming. Nice backtest of the weekly pivot at the low this morning. TF Sep 60min chart:

Overall I'm not seeing anything here yet to make me think that the next move isn't a retest of the all time high on SPX. No sign yet that the open bull flag target there on SPX isn't going to happen. First support is the weekly and monthly pivots marked on these ES, NQ and TF charts. After that it is key that SPX holds the daily middle band on SPX, currently at 2451/2, on a daily closing basis. On breaks below an alternate more bearish scenario might well be playing out.

Stan and I did our monthly free public Chart Chat webinar on Sunday, and if you would like to see the recording then you can see that on our September Free Webinars page. This week's edition of The Weekly Call is posted and the model portfolio there is up 205% in the ten months to August 31st, now slightly over our target minimum 200% return over the first year. As that target has been reached we're thinking of making the strategy there a bit less conservative. That's a free weekly service and if you trade futures I'd suggest adding it to your reading list.