And, As In Uffish Thought I Stood

The swing high may be in, and price has a couple of decisions to make early this week to show us whether that is now the case. All charts were done either yesterday (RTH charts) or before the open this morning (futures charts) for subscribers at theartofchart.net.

SPX is on an hourly RSI 14 sell signal, and short term rising wedge support was tested twice and held as support on Friday. That has broken this morning, and subject to any short term topping process the next big trendline target is larger rising wedge support, currently in the 2455 area. SPX 60min chart:

RUT is also on an hourly RSI 14 sell signal and I noted the possible unfinished business above at the full retest of the all time high. A marginal new all time high has been made this morning, so that is no longer unfinished business, though the resistance trendline isn't high quality and RUT will need to break rising wedge support, currently in the 1432.5 area. RUT 60min chart:

NDX has been the weakest of the three indices and NDX has now broken down from decent double top support at 5890. If the break down is sustained then the double top target is larger double top support in the 5750 area. NDX daily chart:

On ES the overnight high backtested broken rising wedge support and the morning high has established the new weekly pivot at 2499.75 as resistance. If 2490 now converts to resistance then ES could trend down today. ES Dec 60min chart:

NQ has reached the first double top target at 5875, and the second double top target at 5775 has fixed. Possible falling channel support has broken. NQ Dec 60min chart:

TF has made a new all time high this morning and established a decent resistance trendline that wasn't one of the options shown on the chart below. I have a possible H&S neckline in the 1438/9 area and rising wedge support currently in the 1427 area. TF Dec 60min chart:

The odds now favor the swing high being in, barring possible high retests as part of the short term topping process.

Stan and I are doing the second of two 'Trading Toolbox' free educational webinars an hour after the close on Thursday at theartofchart.net, and this one will be looking at the use of momentum based tools in day and swing trading, including the RSI based buy and sell signals I developed a few years ago and refer to a lot in my posts. If you would like to attend then you can register for that on our September Free Webinars page.

This week's edition of The Weekly Call is posted and the model portfolio there is up 212% in the eleven months to September 25th, now slightly over our target minimum 200% return over the first year. As that target has been reached we're thinking of making the strategy there a bit less conservative for the second year. That's a free weekly service and if you trade futures I'd suggest adding it to your reading list.