Topping Out, Probably

SPX went up through both of the annual pivot and 50dma resistance levels and has come close to a test of declining resistance from the all time highs, now in the 2690 area. I was talking earlier this month about the vital importance of monthly closing resistance at the monthly middle band, now at 2664. In the event that there is a clear close in January back above it, then the odds would strongly favor a retest of the all time high before there was anything more than a marginal lower low on SPX. The last time there was a significant monthly closing break back over the middle band in a possible bear market without such an ATH retest coming next was over 60 years ago.

SPX monthly chart:

The initial rally patterns have broken down, except perhaps on DAX, and SPX/ES is now in an inflection point where it either breaks down at least into the high 2500s, or retests the rally highs, probably to make the second high of a double top. I talk about that in detail on the video below, recording at lunchtime today.

Full Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Updates on ES, NQ, RTY, DAX, ESTX50, SPX, NDX, RUT, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD:

Short term support is at the 50 hour moving average, always a significant short term trend support/resistance level, now at 2630. If that converts to resistance then that opens the test of 2600 next. If SPX breaks up instead then a marginal new rally high would also deliver, at the moment, a possible test and fail at declining resistance from the all time high. If we haven't seen a break down by tomorrow lunchtime then I'll be leaning towards that high retest.

SPX 60min chart:

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Bear Flags and SPX Annual Pivot

In the video below before the open this morning I looked first at the clear bear flag rally patterns developed on ES, NQ, RTY, DAX and ESTX50, then SPX, NDX and RUT. That's a lot of bear flags and while these don't always break down, they usually do and the odds favor that again here. None of these have broken down yet apart from a slight break on ES rising wedge support, and if we see confirmation with a break and conversion of the ES weekly pivot at 2572.50 to resistance today or tomorrow then I'd expect all of these bear flags to start breaking down with likely minimum targets at a retest of last month's low. Full Premarket Video from theartofchart.net - Updates on ES, NQ, RTY, DAX, ESTX50, SPX, NDX, RUT, CL, NG, GC, SI, HG, ZB, KC, SB, CC, ZW, ZC, ZS, DX, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD & AUDUSD:

On the upside the SPX high last week was just under the 2019 annual pivot at 2598. I'd note that the February low last year was just a few handles below the 2018 annual pivot, so it's a good area for a rally high. We could still see a marginal higher high but I'm not expecting it to be broken by much. SPX daily chart:

On the SPX chart the bear flag pattern is a rising wedge and wedge support is now in the 2544 area. Watching a clear break there for downside break confirmation, slightly below the monthly pivot at 2551. SPX 15min chart:

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