- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE
- This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.

Monday, 5 January 2015

Nobody Expects The Spanish Inquisition

SPX tested and held the daily middle band on Friday. That closed at 2053 and if that is broken with any confidence today then the next decent support is at the daily 50 MA and EMA in the 2036/7 area. If that breaks then the very obvious target will be rising (wedge) support from 1820 in the 2010 area. SPX daily chart:
In all honesty I've been expecting a reversal back up to at least retest the highs before a larger move down started. That doesn't have to happen of course and I'm starting to wonder if it will.

There was a very nice reversal setup building on Friday afternoon. A falling megaphone from 2085 broke up, with a supporting IHS at the low, and strong positive divergence on the 60min RSI 14. Generally speaking with this setup the retracement low would be in, but there was a strong rejection just before the close on Friday and ES has run down almost ten points more overnight. This might just be a retest of the lows, that is always a risk on any break in either direction, often unexpected, and often very harsh, but if ES makes more than marginal new lows then that bull setup will most likely entirely fail, and the momentum from that failure might well take SPX to 2010. SPX 15min chart:
I'll be watching the open with great interest today. An open below the SPX daily middle band will be a strike against the bulls, Two strikes if the IHS is invalidated. We are nearing the stage where rising wedge support in the 2010 area will become the obvious next target.

No comments:

Post a Comment