80% Odds Trend Today

My theartofchart.net collaborator Stan tells me that the setup here gives an 80% chance of a trend day today, though it's important to remember that there is still therefore a not insubstantial 20% chance of not seeing a trend day today. If we do see that trend day my lean would be towards down, though obviously there is only one way to find out for sure. If we trend up then the possible topping targets at 2134/5, 2138 and channel resistance at 2146-8 are all in range, but if we trend down then I have a setup that should be more fun to trade.

The support zone is at 2103-15 today, and SPX did not touch the daily upper band yesterday, so the door is open for some retracement today. SPX daily chart:

If SPX can break below the very strong support zone here then I have a downside scenario that looks interesting, and I've marked that on the chart below. That could deliver a retrace to possible channel support in the 2088 area, and I'm not really looking for that unless we do see SPX break support. If it does break down though then that would be the next obvious support. SPX 60min chart:

As ever with trend days, if indeed we see one today, the main aim is to end the day in the green. Don't get married to any scenario, manage your risk carefully and don't spend any time trying to catch big reversals. We'll see where SPX ends up by the end of the day.