Santa Has Left the Building

When I was doing the chart below for theartofchart.net subscribers last night I laid out two H&S scenarios and favored the second one, with the caveat that we should know which option would be taken at or soon after the open today. Obviously SPX has gone with option 1 and is likely to open close to that H&S target in the 2010 area. SPX 15min chart:

On the daily chart the falling channel that I was talking about is looking good and I currently have channel support there in the 1970-80 area. I'm not currently seeing any reason to think that target won't be tested soon. As I mention on the chart though, on the bigger picture this setup would usually be a bull flag so the bearish action today and this week does not preclude a test of the all time highs in the next few weeks. Making a big top is a process that cannot be hurried. This is still not a good time to buy puts and go on vacation. SPX daily chart:

My wife was reminding me again yesterday that I need to refer back to my nice calls again last night, so I'll mention that all this is playing out as I was laying it out last week, though China has given the timetable a push overnight of course.

As SPX closed red for 2015 I'll also congratulate myself on my call on the first trading day of February 2015 that the action in January was saying strongly that SPX was likely to be flat at best in 2015. That was a bold call at the time and I received many comments at the time about the year before a presidential election being bullish and that no year with a 5 in it had ever closed red on SPX. Obviously that winning streak has now been broken, and I'd note that the stats for presidential election years are mixed at best. You can see that February 2015 post here.

Today is the last day of the annual memberships sale at theartofchart.net, so any annual memberships bought today have four free months in that year against our normal monthly price. After the trading hours close today that annual discount reverts to the usual two months free discount so if you're interested, you have only a few yours to claim this discount. The discount code for this offer is posted here.

Happy New Year everyone!. I am expecting this year to be a lot of fun to trade. :-)