Knife Fight at 2150 ES

Just a quick post today as I'm not feeling well and my ability to multitask declines sharply when I'm feeling under the weather. I've mainly been calling the turns on the epic knife fight at 2150 today and if you aren't following my twitter you'll have missed that. I'm going to just use the SPX 5min chart today as it shows the short term inflection point here clearly. Price needs to pick the direction, this pattern favors the bulls 70/30 but bears could still break this down.

The pattern from the close before the election on SPX was a rising channel that broke down with a possible double top setup that had a higher risk that usual of developing into a bull flag because the second high was lower. With the intraday low today a perfect triangle has been established that in this context would normally be a bull pennant looking for a retest of the rally high. If bears can't break triangle support and deliver the 30% option, that's very likely exactly what this is. If we do see that rally high retest I'd be looking for that on Monday and would be expecting that to likely be the second high of a double top.

I'd note that on a break down, this setup is also a passable looking H&S that would target the 2123 area on a sustained break below 2153 SPX, but until we see that the break up is the higher probability outcome short term. SPX 5min chart:

Everyone have a great weekend :-)