Broken Wedges

As I was writing on Friday, SPX is testing major double resistance at the month middle band and a key trendline from the 2009 low. With  a daily RSI 5 sell signal fixed on SPX, at least a decent retracement here looks likely, and that may develop into a decline into a new bear market low under 3491.58.

SPX monthly chart:

NDX is also now testing the monthly middle band as resistance. This hasn't been as good support and resistance in the past as it has been on SPX, but is nonetheless an important level.

NDX monthly chart:

On the SPX chart the rising wedge from the March low at 3808.86 is breaking down and SPX is likely topping out. That may require a retest of the April high at 4169.48 to set up a small double top that on a break below 4113 would look for the 4060 area, with a possible H&S neckline in the 4070 area.

SPX 15min chart:

NDX and NQ are looking interesting here. On NQ there is a perfect shallow falling channel which is a clear bull flag channel suggesting strongly that a retest of the April high should be seen before this high is made. That is less clear on NDX though, with that high almost retested already and a possible small double top already in place that on a sustained break below 12833.30 would look for a target in the 12480 area.

NDX 15min chart:

I'm going to start adding an interesting chart of the day as the last chart on these posts and today's is the AAPL daily chart.

This chart is interesting because a strong bull flag setup with a three touch support trendline was established at the start of 2023. I've been looking since then for a move from there into a test of the flag resistance trendline and that was tested perfectly at the high last week. This is now a very strong bull flag setup that on a break over flag resistance would look for a retest of the all time high at 181.38.

Now bull flags don't always break up, but I was talking on Friday about a possible scenario here where SPX might now head down to the H&S target and backtest of the early 2020 all time high in the 3400 area, to make the second low of a double bottom there, to set up a subsequent move to retest the all time high at 4818.62. This setup on AAPL is one of the charts supporting that longer term scenario.

Interesting Chart Of The Day - AAPL daily chart:

In the short term I think the odds are 75%+ that SPX is topping out short term for at least a decent retracement, and could be starting another leg down from here. The short term high may already be made and if SPX moves back below 4100 from here, most likely has already been made. The obvious next target in that case would be the possible H&S neckline in the 4070 area.

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