Inflection Point Here On Crypto

I’ve been looking at the overall bull flag setup on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) for months now, and that has finally broken up and almost delivered a full retest of the all time high at 73,802.641 yesterday, though it fell just short.

My lean is that Bitcoin makes a new all time high soon and continues higher, but there is an alternative scenario, and we could see a hard reversal here instead.

BTCUSD daily chart:

The high yesterday has established a possible three touch resistance trendline on negative hourly RSI 14 and RSI 5 divergence, and hourly sell signals were established on both overnight.

Those sell signals won’t deliver a big reversal but there is a potential setup for that here, and if we see a break below rising support from the 58.9k low, currently in the 67.2k area, then I’ll be taking a possible big reversal here seriously.

BTCUSD 60min chart:

Nothing exciting to see on the Ethereum (ETHUSD) chart, but I will repeat my comment a few days ago that the action on Ethereum since the low in the summer could be a bear flag or triangle forming. If so Ethereum could be setting up for a retest of the August low at 2121.38.

ETHUSD daily chart:

A weak RSI 14 hourly sell signal fixed on Ethereum yesterday and a full RSI 14 sell signal is now brewing. There is a potential small double top setup here that on a sustained break below double top support at 2599.62 would look for the 2503-16 area.

ETHUSD 60min chart:

I’ve been looking for a test of the main bull flag resistance on Solana (SOLUSD), and we saw that at the high yesterday. As I mentioned on my last post was likely, that test has set a possible daily RSI 14 sell signal brewing.

SOLUSD daily chart:

An hourly RSI 14 sell signal fixed on Solana after the high yesterday, and that has already reached the possible near miss target.

As I mentioned in my last post, there is a possible double top setup here on Solana, and on a sustained break below double top support at 159.14 the double top target would be in the 135 to 139 area.

SOLUSD 60min chart:

This isn’t a very strong reversal setup, but it’s not bad either. In that it resembles the reversal setups at the May high at 188.83, and the July high at 193.87, both of which I was watching at the time, and both of which delivered large reversals. That could happen again here so until we see Solana and Bitcoin make further new short term highs with confidence, I’ll be watching this with great interest.

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I'm also to be found at Arion Partners, though as a student rather than as a teacher. I've been charting Crypto for some years now, but am learning to trade and invest in them directly, and Arion Partners are my guide around a space that might reasonably be compared to the Wild West in one of their rougher years. 

Chop Chop

Equity indices have been chopping around in recent days, and the action seems to be getting less interesting by the day. Overall this looks like a bullish consolidation, with SPY, QQQ holding above their daily middle bands, IWM trying to break back over the daily middle band, and only DIA holding below the middle band there.

There is a lot of talk about a possible larger decline brewing, and with Vix in the 18 area, and a lot of uncertainty about the presidential election, currently too close to call, as well as a couple of ongoing wars, there is certainly enough potential news around that could help a decent retracement along.

The problem is that the setup for a large decline here is currently thin, but it could improve. The current move looks like a bullish consolidation but if that delivers and we see another move up, there are some significant levels that could be hit to improve a topping setup here. In part because there really isn’t much going on today on the equity markets, I’m going to have a quick look at that today.

I’d obviously expect to see a retest of the recent high on SPX which would set up a modest double top setup. If that was to play out then SPX could test and potentially form a right shoulder near the possible H&S neckline in the 5674 area. That could create a larger H&S pattern that could then look for the 5400-25 area. There are other possible H&S necklines further down in the 5402 and 5119 areas that could set up even larger H&S reversal patterns. There is a similar sort of setup on Dow/DIA, with potential H&S necklines in the 417.5, 399.5, 383 & 373 areas. No current option for any large double top on either.

SPX daily chart:

The path to a decent topping pattern would be a lot shorter on QQQ & IWM. A retest of the ATH on QQQ at 502.81 could make the second high on a possible much larger double top setup that on a subsequent sustained break below double top support at 422.86 could look for a target in the 345 area, a more than 50% retracement of the move up from the October 2022 low.

QQQ daily chart:

A retest of the 2024 high on IWM at 227.85 could make the second high on a possible much larger double top setup that on a subsequent sustained break below double top support at 196.03 could look for a target in the 164 area, close to a full retracement of the move up from the October 2023 low.

At this stage this would be pure speculation, and the sell signal support for a big decline here is thin, but there is some potential here after a modest move higher.

IWM daily chart:

In the short term these look like bull flags forming on SPX and DIA particularly. On SPX I have drawn in an ideal flag support trendline in the 5760 area that could get a hit, with rising support from the August 2024 currently slightly higher in the 5775 area. That could be a good level for a high retest to start from.

SPX 15min chart:

On DIA there was a small H&S that reached target last Friday, and a high quality falling wedge that could be a bull flag and has been showing some signs of breaking up today. If we see a break up and then a retest of the current low at 420.42 then that might both tag the rising support trendline from the August low and set up a small double bottom to set up a retest of the all time high at 433.20.

DIA 15min chart:

Whatever happens I’d be looking for at minimum a bit more upside to set up a larger move down, but I’d note that both the topping setup and the seasonality for a big decline were both better a few weeks ago than anything we are likely to see form here.

November and December both lean bullish historically and in the last 68 years, there are only five days in November that have historically closed green less than 50% of the time, and all five averaged over 49% green. December is a little more bearish with six days that have closed green less than 50% of the time, and a better spread of bearish probability down to only 42% on Friday the 13th of December, but that isn’t much to support a bear move into the end of the year. We'll see.

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Solana Still Approaching Main Bull Flag Resistance

After my post on Thursday there was a modest retracement on Crypto but there was no technical damage on Bitcoin (BTCUSD). That held the daily middle band perfectly on the last backtest and the obvious next target is a retest of the last high at 69.5k.

If Bitcoin continues higher from there, the larger bull flag that has broken up has a target at a retest of the all time high at 73,802.641.

BTCUSD daily chart:

On the hourly chart the H&S had already failed before my last post with a target at a retest of the last high at 69.5k. After that post Bitcoin finished forming a bullish triangle which has broken up this morning. That triangle target is also a retest of the last high at 69.5k.

BTCUSD 60min chart:

Ethereum (ETHUSD) has been relatively weak and broke below double support at the daily middle band and 50dma. It is currently trying to break back over both. I am concerned that the rally from the August 2024 low could be forming a bearish flag or triangle.

ETHUSD daily chart:

I the short term I have no targets lower or RSI negative divergence on any timeframe, so I’m leaning towards higher and a possible break back over the daily middle band.

ETHUSD 60min chart:

On Solana the backtest never tested the daily middle band and the next obvious target, after a retest of last week’s high at 179.10, is a test of main bull flag resistance, now in the 183.5 area. On a sustained break over that bull flag resistance, the target would be a retest of the 2024 high at 209.86.

SOLUSD daily chart:

In the short term there was a small H&S that formed and played out on the 15min chart before almost retesting the high this morning.

There is some sign of short term weakness, with an 15min RSI 5 sell signal fixed, and small double top formed, but the double top target, if reached, would only be back in the 174 area. Rising support from the 135.39 low was broken on the last retrace, but that doesn’t look significant, and likely just established a slightly shallower rising support trendline.

SOLUSD 15min chart:

Overall I’m still liking the upside, though I would note that on a retest of 179.10, a possible daily RSI 14 sell signal would start brewing on Solana. That’s not necessarily significant, but there would then also be a potential large double top there that could look for the 138/9 area on a reversal, so Solana would need to push up through that reversal setup.

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I'm also to be found at Arion Partners, though as a student rather than as a teacher. I've been charting Crypto for some years now, but am learning to trade and invest in them directly, and Arion Partners are my guide around a space that might reasonably be compared to the Wild West in one of their rougher years. 

Broken Rhyme On Natural Gas

I did a post a month ago looking at the triangles on Oil & Natural Gas. I’ve been following both since, amid the intermittent turbulence in the Middle East, and the rhyming triangles scenario I laid out in the post likely failed on Friday on natural gas. I’ll cover that further down but first I’ll review where we are up to on oil.

On the WTIC chart the triangle that broke down had a target at a retest of the May 2023 low at 63.57, and that remains the case. Invalidation of that target would be at a break back over triangle resistance, currently in the 81.2 area.

In the short term oil spent most of last week testing the daily middle band as resistance and failing to break above it. At the time of writing, just after the futures reopen on Sunday night, the reaction on oil futures to the retaliatory attack on Iran by Israel on Friday night has so far been a three buck drop from the closing price on Friday, presumable because Israel avoided attacking energy related targets.

I’m still treating that 63.57 triangle target as the obvious next target, and as I write, that is only $5 below the current price.

WTIC daily chart:

On the bigger picture I’m thinking that the retest of 63.57 may well be setting up the second low of a double bottom that might then, on a sustained break over the late 2023 high at 95.03, would target the 127.5 area, slightly below the 2022 high at 130.50.

Regardless of that oil has a lot of support in the $55 to $65 area, and I’d be surprised to see that broken anytime soon.

WTIC weekly chart:

The triangle on natural gas that I was looking at a month ago was performing really well until the start of last week, and might to the casual eye have looked perfectly on track on Friday morning, but that rally last week was always going to kill the triangle when the NG front month futures contract rolled from Nov to Dec on Friday, at the price NG Nov closed at then. I’ll explain why that was on the chart below the one directly below.

For now though, triangle resistance has broken up and while the triangle could be rescued by a sharp decline of considerably more than the 2.5% decline in NG Dec since the open tonight, I have drawn in the two other possible bear flag resistance trendlines on the NATGAS index chart, currently in the 3.46 and 4.1 areas respectively, on the chart below.

There are other options, notably the possible IHS neckline or possible asymmetric double bottom resistance at the late 2023 high at 3.46, but those two would be the obvious next target if, in due course, we are then going to see a retest of the Feb 2024 low at 1.52.

NATGAS daily chart:

Why did the NATGAS index triangle break up on the roll from the NG futures contract from Nov to Dec?

Well I have mentioned that NATGAS is a hard long to hold for long periods, and the main reason is that there is almost always an assumption that NG will rise a buck or more in the winter each year as more gas is used for heating.

The main purpose of the NG future is to match big producers of natural gas to big consumers in the forward markets so the NG Dec 2024 contact has been in existence for several years with the big producers promising delivery in December 2024 to large consumers that commit to take those deliveries. The price varies over the period of the contact and only becomes final on the settlement date on 26th November 2024, at the final price on that date, for delivery in December 2024.

Until that final date speculators can buy or sell the futures in the hope that it will either rise or fall but at settlement, only companies that can take delivery can hold that contact. You can look at the settlement and delivery dates for these here if you’re interested.

In practical terms this means that an expectation that natural gas prices rise in the winter mean that much of that rise is already baked into the futures prices. To roll from the October to November contract required paying another thirty cents. On Friday in the roll from the November to December contract was another fifty cents higher, and to roll from the December to January contract would be another thirty cents. As the NATGAS index price is always the front month price on the NG future, that would mean that for the price to remain the same October through January, the futures price would need to decline by $1.10 intra-month over that period. That is in effect what needed to happen for my triangle scenario to play out, and obviously that failed to happen last week.

Highs on NATGAS tend to be in Oct/Nov and lows in Feb-Apr, so I’m still thinking we might see that low retest, but the triangle I drew a month ago won’t be that path. We’ll see how it goes from here.

NATGAS Futures to June 2026:

Why am I thinking we might still see a retest of the Feb 2024 low at 1.52? Well it would make a very nice second low of a double bottom on my NATGAS index chart, at a really good support level, and we might then see a reversal there back into the $4.75 to $5 area over the following year or two. That kind of move will generate some nice long opportunities, even if NG is really too hard a long to hold continuously over a long period.

NATGAS weekly chart:

Have we seen setups and moves like this before on natural gas? Most definitely, and to illustrate that I’m going to post a review of an even more impressive move on natural gas I was looking at in the past that was akin to this and delivered beautifully. If I have time I’ll post that over the coming week.

Just to mention, I’m going to start doing a post every week or two reviewing a single instrument that I cover in my futures and currencies charts on multiple timeframes to sketch out the higher probability paths going forward. The next two will most likely be the US Dollar index and longer term bonds, but after that I’ll be looking at metals, other commodities, major currency pairs and so on. Don’t forget to subscribe for free to my substack if you’d like to see those.

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Solana Approaching Main Bull Flag Resistance

I’ve been writing and talking over the last few months about the overall likely bull flag setups on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Solana (SOLUSD), and the bull flag resistance on Bitcoin was briefly broken a few days ago before the current modest retracement.

I was writing on Wednesday about the small H&S on Bitcoin, which didn’t make target and then failed yesterday on a break over the right shoulder high at 67.8k. That fail has a target at a retest of the October high at 69.5k.

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BTCUSD 60min chart:

I mentioned on Wednesday that there was very possible support at the daily middle band on the way to the small H&S target and that is where the low was, so the daily middle band, currently at 65,395, has now been established as main support.

On a move back over 69.5k there is now a larger bull flag target fixed at a retest of the all time high at 73.8k.

BTCUSD daily chart:

I’ve mentioned a couple of times that though Ethereum (ETHUSD) is big and still popular, it may be relatively weak in the future. Mainly the issue is that in terms of transaction costs and speed, Solana is much cheaper and faster. Many would argue that Ethereum has good prospects longer term but I’d note that this week at least Solana has been strongest, Bitcoin next, and then Ethereum trailing behind. I suspect that may well be the case much of the time over coming years.

Ethereum has been trailing this week, but has backtested double support at the daily middle band and the 50dma, and they are holding so far.

ETHUSD daily chart:

Solana has been the strongest this week, and is getting close to main bull flag resistance, currently in the 184 area. On a break above, the bull flag target would be a retest of the 2024 high at 209.86.

SOLUSD daily chart:

In the short term Solana is still finding resistance at the rising megaphone resistance that I showed on Wednesday. I have two support trendlines that I am watching on a retrace here, short term rising support now in the 167.75 area, and rising megaphone support now in the 160.75 area.

SOLUSD 60min chart:

I was only looking for a modest retracement on Crypto this week and we saw that. We could see a little more but I think we are likely to see Solana test 184 in the next few days. Unless we start seeing sustained breaks below the daily middle bands on Crypto then there’s no reason to think that we won’t see them go higher shortly.

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I'm also to be found at Arion Partners, though as a student rather than as a teacher. I've been charting Crypto for some years now, but am learning to trade and invest in them directly, and Arion Partners are my guide around a space that might reasonably be compared to the Wild West in one of their rougher years. 

Downside Targets

Yesterday we saw a decent decline which was well overdue and, of the two fixed daily sell signals still fixed on the US indices, the one on DIA reached the possible near miss target, so I’m now disregarding that one, though a follow through decline that closes significantly lower today would likely reach the full target.

DIA broke slightly below the daily middle band, but rallied to effectively close on it, so no clear break. So far for me then, the daily middle band is still holding as support.

If we go a lot lower, then there is a possible rising support trendline target in the 403 area.

DIA daily chart:

On the 15min chart a high quality H&S has broken down with a target in the 421 area, and the rising wedge support trendline is a strong target not far below in the 418.5 area.

DIA 15min chart:

On SPY the fixed weak RSI 5 sell signal had upgraded to a full RSI 5 sell signal at the last high. That almost reached the possible near miss target yesterday, but not quite, so there is some unfinished business below.

SPX dropped slightly below the daily middle band intraday yesterday but closed over it, so support there has held so far.

SPY daily chart:

On the SPY 15min chart a small double top has broken down with a target range 570.5 to 571.5. There is possible support on the way at rising wedge support from the August low at 573. If both targets are hit and exceeded then there is a possible H&S neckline and more support down in the 565 area.

SPY 15min chart:

IWM and QQQ have been the weakest on this decline and both closed yesterday under their daily middle bands. No topping patterns on either and there were short term buy signals on both the IWM 15min and RTY 60min charts, both of which look likely to be a bit short of target at the open today.

On the QQQ chart this could well be a bull flag forming, but I’m watching possible rising wedge support, currently in the 481 area.

QQQ 15min chart:

There is likely unfinished business below, and some follow through downside today or tomorrow would likely make the SPX daily RSI 5 sell signal minimum target and the targets on the SPX and DIA topping patterns. I’m leaning towards seeing that.

I went through all of this in detail in my The Bigger Picture video last night. If you’d like to see that then you can find that here.

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Small H&S Breaking Down On Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been retracing for a couple of days now and I mentioned on the premarket video yesterday morning that a possible small H&S was forming that might deliver some more downside. Since then that H&S has finished forming and has broken down with a target in the 63,500 area.

Now there is always a chance of course that an H&S may reject back up to the high, and if we see that here, this H&S would fail with a target back at a retest of the last high at 69.5k on a break back over the right shoulder high at 67,801.

BTCUSD 60min chart:

On the bigger picture BTCUSD has broken slightly over the main bull flag resistance trendline and after this retracement there is a good chance that will follow through to the upside into the bull flag target at a retest of the all time high at 73.8k.

If the small H&S plays out towards the target then I’ll be watching support at the daily middle band, currently at 64,797, and the 200dma, currently at 63,321. If seen, two daily closes below the daily middle band would be bearish and potentially open up lower targets.

BTCUSD daily chart:

On the Ethereum (ETHUSD) hourly chart there were two buy signals that fixed yesterday, a weak RSI 14 buy signal that failed overnight, and a full RSI 5 buy signal that may fail too. The failed buy signal leans modestly bearish.

ETHUSD 60min chart:

On the Ethereum daily chart there is very obvious double support below at the daily middle band, currently at 2531, supported by the 50dma, currently at 2488. A sustained break below these would also look bearish.

ETHUSD daily chart:

Solana (SOLUSD) has been holding up better than the other two, but there is a possible small rising megaphone forming and I am wondering about a possible test of that megaphone support trendline, currently in the 157.5 area.

SOLUSD 60min chart:

On the Solana daily chart the obvious support is at the daily middle band, currently at 151.79, and the 200dma at 150.88. Solana is currently a long way above both of these though and there’s no obvious reason to think that either will be tested.

SOLUSD daily chart:

I was only looking for a modest retracement on Crypto yesterday morning and that’s still the case. The Bitcoin H&S is a good quality pattern and may well make target, but unless we start seeing sustained breaks below the daily middle bands on Crypto then there’s no reason to think that this is anything other than a bullish consolidation.

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I'm also to be found at Arion Partners, though as a student rather than as a teacher. I've been charting Crypto for some years now, but am learning to trade and invest in them directly, and Arion Partners are my guide around a space that might reasonably be compared to the Wild West in one of their rougher years. 

Three Rising Wedges Update

I’ve started to change on shorter term charts to using SPY rather than SPX, QQQ rather than NDX and DIA rather than Dow as I’ve got the impression that would be more useful for most people. Feedback very welcome if anyone has a view on this.

I was saying on Thursday last week that I wasn’t expecting to see anything particularly impressive on the downside, but there were three decent rising wedges from the August lows on SPX, NDX and Dow that I’ve been watching, and a couple of short term double tops that might play out. That’s still mostly the case so I thought I’d do a quick update post on that today.

On SPX/SPY there is a high quality rising wedge from the August low and on the obvious resistance trendline the obvious read is a bearish overthrow of the highs. If we see more downside then the rising wedge support trendline, currently at 571, could be the target, and there is a good quality possible double top in place that on a sustained break below 578.54 would look for a target in the 571 to 571.75 area, a decent match with that rising support trendline.

SPY 15min chart:

In the event that we do see more downside I’d be watching the daily middle band, currently in the 576 area. A break and conversion of that would make any possible larger downside scenarios look more interesting.

SPY daily chart:

On NDX/QQQ there is another high quality rising wedge from the August low and on the obvious resistance trendline the obvious read is a slight bearish overthrow of the highs. There is no obvious short term topping setup here, but rising wedge support is currently in the 481 area.

QQQ 15min chart:

If we see more downside on QQQ then I’ll be watching the daily middle band, currently in the 489.5 area, as that has been tested three times since mid-September and has held as a low each time. If that should be broken with any confidence that would also give some more credibility to any larger downside scenarios.

QQQ daily chart:

On Dow/DIA there is another high quality rising wedge from the August low and on this one the rising trendline has been hit but not broken. The next obvious target within the wedge would be wedge support, currently in the 417.50 area. A very small double top has already broken down and reached target and a possible larger H&S could be forming here. If that breaks down here then the H&S target would be in the 420-1 area.

On this 15min chart an RSI 14 buy signal has fixed, supporting a modest rally here to form that right shoulder. If seen, the ideal right shoulder high would be in the 431 area.

DIA 15min chart:

Overall I’m still not looking for much interesting to happen on the downside over the next few days but there are still open daily RSI 5 sell signals on SPY and DIA, and if there wasn’t already one fixed on DIA, a new one would have fixed yesterday. There is a setup here where we can see some more downside this week, but not much to suggest that would get far.

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Proof Of Life

I was looking at this rising wedge on SPX posted on twitter earlier this week by someone with the comment that the break above this week is a bearish overthrow that would likely precede a break down from the wedge and then a likely 38.2% to 61.8% retracement of the wedge. Obviously I’ve been posting that wedge and looking at it every day in my premarket videos for weeks, and it is a very decent quality pattern, but I’m doubtful.

If we were going to see that retracement happen, then the obvious time to do that would have been over the last four weeks or so, in the obvious bearish window into late October. That didn’t happen, so unless we see some evidence that the bears are still in the game, I’m going to remain doubtful.

That said, if we do see some retracement from here, I would note that there is currently a possible small double top setup here that on a sustained break below 5804.48 would look for a target in the 5730-7 area. If that was to deliver then rising wedge support, currently in the 5700 area, would be in range.

Could we see that happen? Sure. Will we see that happen? Well I won’t be holding my breath waiting.

SPX 15min chart:

If we are going to see that happen then the first step on the way would be a break and conversion of the daily middle band, currently at 5760, to resistance. I would note that there is still a fixed weak RSI 5 sell signal here, and that if there wasn’t, a possible full RSI 5 sell signal would be brewing.

If SPX breaks higher here then the obvious next target is the resistance trendline above, currently in the 6125 area, and rising of course.

SPX daily BBs chart:

There is also a possible short term double top setup here on Dow, and a sustained break back below 42.7k would look for a target in the 42.1k area. Decent looking support in the 41.8k area, then rising wedge support currently in the 41,500 area.

The rising wedge is also high quality, like the one on SPX, and there is still a fixed daily RSI 5 sell signal on Dow as well. Could be. We’ll see.

INDU 15min chart:

As I mentioned there is still a fixed RSI 5 sell signal on Dow, and as with SPX, if there wasn’t already a sell signal fixed here, another would be brewing.

On the bigger picture I have no clear target above in the event of a break up. I’ve drawn in a couple of options, of which the higher trendline is better quality, but we might just need to wait for the next high.

INDU daily BBs chart:

Any sign of a turn on NDX? Well we haven’t been seeing new highs there, and there’s no short term double top. There’s a short term rising wedge there too, with wedge support currently in the 19,500 area. We’ll see.

On the bigger picture NDX backtested the daily middle band, currently at 20044, earlier this week and it held perfectly. If that tests again and breaks, that would be an initial sign of weakness.

NDX daily chart:

I’m skeptical about the bear case here, as the setup isn’t strong, and the timing was a lot better a month or even a fortnight ago. As long as the daily middle bands are holding as support across the board on the equity indices, there’s not much to see on the bear side. If those start breaking with any confidence, I’ll look again at possible downside targets.

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