Jack Chappell aka Springheel Jack - A Classical Trendline Chartist's View of Equities, Bonds, Forex and Commodities
- WE'RE JUST RANDOM SPECKS OF DUST IN A TORNADO TO THE MARKETS .......
- CHARTISTS MUST PUT ALL BIAS ASIDE AND LET THE CHARTS DO THE TALKING OR WE'LL SEE ONLY WHAT WE WANT TO SEE - This blog has a copy of all header posts that I publish anywhere, so that those interested in seeing what my thoughts are on the markets can find them easily.
- I will be answering questions and responding to comments, so feel free to respond to any posts and I will see your comment even if it is not on the most recent post.
- If you're interested in seeing any intraday charts I post, I do that on twitter, and my twitter handle is @shjackcharts.
- The charts in the posts are as large as I can practically make them. if you would like to look at one more closely, click on it, and the link will take you to a larger version at screencast. If you click on that again, you will get a full page version, and can use the resizing function on your browser to enlarge parts of interest further.
On the video today the first bit where I was looking at the action so far as a likely bull flag that should deliver a retest of the HOD is now obviously out of date, as the flag then broke up and made target, and we have a new HOD. That was unfortunately only of use to subscribers watching the video being recorded live, or on the subscriber twitter feed where I posted the full version soon afterwards. The shorter version takes a bit longer to produce.
For the rest of the video I am considering the case for a possible high being made here in the 2737.25 to 2741 area on ES and we are in that inflection point now. If we see a hard fail here we are looking for new 2018 lows at minimum. If we see a break up instead then we should see ES reach the 2780s next. Intraday Video from theartofchart.net - Update on ES, NQ and TF:
I drew in a possible overall rising wedge for the rally on TF this morning and it was encouraging for a fail in this area to see the high today at that resistance trendline. We'll see. TF Mar 60min chart:
Stan and I are doing our monthly free public Chart Chat on Sunday covering the usual 40 or so instruments over most major markets. If you'd like to attend you can register for that on our March Free Webinars page.
......... While You Are Busy Making Other Plans - Allen Saunders
The ideal day for the bears today, after yesterday's strong break over the daily middle band, would have been an AM high in the 2735-40 range on ES, then a break and conversion to resistance of 2716 on ES, and a trend day down closing the day well under the daily middle band in the 2700 area and delivering a very bearish daily middle band rejection candle.
The high this morning was low, not retesting the globex high on ES and not setting any decent hourly sell signals brewing. 2716 was then slowly converted to resistance, a process requiring a break of the level, a backtest that holds that level and then continuation in the direction of the break, but then ES found support at the weekly pivot at 2709, rejected back over 2716, reconverted that to support and continued up. This has more or less eliminated the possibility of seeing a rejection candle today, subject to presidential comments of course,
The next obvious target is a retest of the globex high on ES at 2734.5 and at that stage we will have serious possible hourly sell signals brewing. Then we see if 2735-40 resistance holds. If it does then the next move down should be a strong one. A break and conversion of 2740 opens the door to a retest of the rally high, and possible second high of a double top there.
The bears' chances here would have been better with that test this morning and a fail there. I'm keeping an open mind.
