Silver Tests Primary Support

SPX went nowhere on Friday, closing the week some 15 points below the weekly upper bollinger band. This doesn't mean much in terms of retracement, but as this band is still rising at 10 or so points per week, if SPX continues to hug the upper band then that gives potential upside of 25 points from Friday's close into strong resistance. That's well worth bearing in mind:

On the SPX 60min chart a small candidate double-top has formed with a target in the 1504 area on a clear break below 1514. Short term support is at 1514/5 and primary support (and a possible H&S neckline) is at 1495/6:

AAPL continues to retrace from falling wedge resistance and we could see a test of the lows. Overall I'm still leaning bullish on AAPL unless we see the current lows broken and compared to most of the rest of the market I think AAPL looks like a bargain here on a forward P/E of 9 and with a dividend at 2.3%:

Will we see some retracement here on equities? Well the pattern setup looks promising, though as we've seen in recent weeks, bear setups often form and fail in a very strong uptrend. With the daily RSI showing negative divergence from overbought though, this is the bears' best shot so far and one way or another we should see a decent retracement soon. TLT is supportive of retracement on equities here, with a very nice looking double-bottom forming there with a target in the 119.65 area on a break  above 117.6:

I won't show the EURUSD chart today as not much has changed since Friday morning, but CL retraced close to 95 area support and the opposing patterns there of a possible bearish double-top and possible bullish rectangle still both look good. Either way I'm looking for a more exact test of 95 and we'll see whether CL can break below to trigger the bear target into 92:

I've been looking in vain in recent months for a confident resumption of the bull markets in gold and silver. After strong declines on Friday silver is once more testing the four year rising support trendline from 2008 in the 29.5 area. A break below would give a first target at strong support just above 26.15, but a break below this very strong support trendline would suggest that silver may well break below 26 to retest the very strong support level in the 19.5 area:

Gold is close to a test of declining channel cum falling wedge resistance in the 1585 area. A break below would strongly suggest a test of primary support in the 1525-35 area:

If this market was not strongly trending upwards I would be confidently expecting retracement this week, with a very possible H&S forming at the candidate 1495/6 area neckline. As it is the setup is there and if current highs can hold we may well see that happen. The first step however is a break below current support at 1510/1 ES and 1514/5 SPX. Until we see that this nice looking retracement setup may well just dry up and blow away like the others that we've seen in recent weeks. If we do see that break I'd be looking for a move to test the SPX daily lower bollinger band (now at 1486) but there is obviously support on the way at the daily middle bollinger band in the 1506 area.

Topping is a Process

I think equities may well fall today, but if that isn't the case, the anchor for the close today is the weekly upper bollinger band on SPX, and that is now at 1534. If we are to see a close hugging this band for yet another week, I'd expect the close today to be in the 1526-34 area, ideally near 1530:

There are some signs of weakness today. There may be an H&S forming on the 60min chart, though that is very tentative until we see the head completed by a move to test 1496 SPX area support. As RSI has not reached overbought since the last significant low there is no RSI sell signal here:

NDX is testing the last significant resistance level before it can retest the 2012 highs. This is an obvious level to pause or retrace in this very tentative advance on NDX since the November low:

I was mentioning the other day that the setup on TLT was looking increasingly like bottoming action. The advance then broke down to retest the lows but the lows held, and there is now a strong candidate double-bottom targeting 119.65 on a break over 117.6. This may well be a signal that a retracement on equities is close:

I mentioned yesterday that both the bull and bear patterns on CL strongly suggested a retest of 95 area support. 97 has now been broken with confidence so I'm looking for that soon. On a break below 95 the double-top target would be at 92. On a strong bounce at 95 rectangle resistance is back at 98, and on a clear break over 98 the rectangle target is at 101:

EURUSD is holding 1.33 so far and the bottoming setup I was talking about yesterday is stronger this morning. The smaller double-bottom targets 1.35 on a break over 1.34, and the larger double-bottom targets the highs in the 1.37 area on a clear break over 1.35:

I very much like this bottoming setup on EURUSD, but it's worth adding that neither of the obvious rising support trendline targets has yet been hit, and that the higher of those is just below in the 1.327 area:

On the overall picture I think SPX is topping out for a decent retracement before the final push up in this move that will take us into March/April. Topping is a process though and there is no strong sign that interim top is already in. If we see a push up today, then SPX resistance is in the 1530-35 range, support is in the 1515 area, with the main target on a break below 1515 in the 1496 area.