Back and Fill

After the spike yesterday morning SPX drifted down all day. At the moment the 50 hour MA at 2109 is holding as support but there is a case for a retracement here to retest the daily middle band at 2102. Bulls would clearly need to strongly defend that level and would need to deliver a daily close at or above that today to keep this choppy uptrend intact. SPX daily chart:

I mentioned yesterday morning that I didn't have an established support trendline for this move up. I'm looking for this retracement to establish that support trendline. I do have an educated guess as to how that may happen, and that's shown on the chart below and is a good fit with support at the daily middle band. We'll see if that channel gets established today.  SPX 5min chart:

If we see a strong break below the daily middle band then the spring high may be in. Until then this is just backing and filling and dips should be buying opportunities. There is still an open IHS target at 2127.

One More Heave

SPX finished forming an IHS on Friday and broke up with a target in the 2127 area. Support is a little hard to call as there is no support trendline established yet, but there should be no concern about the uptrend while SPX stays over the 60 hour MA at 2108.5. SPX 5min chart:

If I'm right that the final move up into the spring high has started, then the two main target areas are around the weekly upper band, currently in the 2137 area and most likely in the 2140 area by the time it is reached, and the monthly upper band, currently in the 2170 area. I'm expecting one of these two areas to hold as resistance but I do have a last lower probability triangle target at 2185, and that's just under main trendline resistance in the 2190 area, so I'm not ruling that out. Hopefully a helpful pattern will form on the way to make calling the spring high area easier. SPX weekly chart:

I'm expecting the spring high to be made over the next few days in one of the target areas above. That's not to say that we won't see some reversals along the way, but any such reversals should be dips to buy.