Crypto - Crisis? What Crisis?

In my post on 20th February I was looking at the big support levels on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD). I was leaning towards seeing a retracement / consolidation on Crypto in the first half of this year and then strong new highs towards the end of the year with possible bull market highs pencilled in for Nov/Dec 2025.

On Solana I gave three big support ranges and we were testing the second 180-216 range on a weekly close basis at the time. The third level is the 120-150 support/resistance range and by the time of my last post on Tuesday Solana was testing that and, with the low so far today at 125.43, is still holding the lower end of that range. I added that on a break below there is a last level at the Aug 2024 low at 110.02 that, if broken, would then raise a very real question as to whether the bull market is over.

SOLUSD weekly chart:

On the daily chart a high quality possible RSI 5 buy signal is brewing and I still like the falling wedge setup from the high, though it isn’t high quality. I am wondering about a possible retracement low forming here.

SOLUSD daily chart:

On Ethereum I was looking for a retest of the early February low at 2135.28 and we saw that last night with a lower low at 2074.27. Ethereum is still holding the 2000-2700 key support area that I’m expecting to hold and a very nice looking possible double bottom setup has now formed. On a sustained break over double bottom resistance at 2856 the double bottom target would be in the 3575 to 3635 area.

ETHUSD weekly chart:

There is also a very decent looking falling wedge that has formed from the 2024 high at 4109.95 and overall this is another possible retracement low setup.

ETHUSD 60min chart:

In my last post on Tuesday I was noting that the double top on Bitcoin had broken down with a target in the $69k to $70k area and, since then, Bitcoin has made a low today at $78.2k. I’m leaning towards that target being made though I would note that the 200dma is currently at 81,988.48, and that level has not yet been convincingly lost.

BTCUSD daily chart:

I’ve been promising to explain why I don’t think that the bull market on Crypto is over, and there are two main reasons.

The first reason you can see on the chart above. The retracement that is currently in progress would, if the double top target is reached, simply be a backtest of the strong resistance turned support area $65k to $74k area. Unless we see a break below that area, I don’t currently see any reason to believe that this is anything more than a bullish retracement.

The second reason you can see on the chart below, comparing the current bull market to the last two bull markets. In those two bull markets there was a clear euphoria phase that delivered the bull market highs and we haven’t yet seen that euphoria phase. Is it possible that we won’t see that? Sure, but history leads us to think that we likely will. The current all time high is just 58% above the last bull market high, and by Crypto standards that would be very slim pickings indeed for a new bull market high.

BTCUSD weekly (LOG) vs SPX chart:

Is it possible that a big fail on equities this year could end this Crypto bull market early? Yes, but it’s too early to call that either. In December I was saying that I was expecting to see significant weakness on both Crypto and equity indices in the first half of this year and we have been seeing that, with Crypto leading that as it often has. I think we may well see more of that on both Crypto and equity indices before these retracements are finished. At the moment though. I’m still leaning towards weakness in the first half of the year and renewed strength in the second half of 2025, with a very possible bull market high on Crypto pencilled in close to the end of the year. That scenario would be a good match with past Crypto bull markets.

Is it possible that I am mistaken? Always, but we can only ever try to identify the higher probability paths in the future. Only time can show us the path that is actually taken. Still, I’m with Confucious who said ‘study the past, if you would divine the future’. Everyone have a great weekend :-)

If you’d like to see more of these posts and the other Crypto videos and information I post, please subscribe for free to my Crypto substack. I also do a premarket video every day on Crypto at 9.05am EST. If you’d like to see those I post the links every morning on my twitter, and the videos are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel.

I'm also to be found at Arion Partners, though as a student rather than as a teacher. I've been charting Crypto for some years now, but am learning to trade and invest in them directly, and Arion Partners are my guide around a space that might reasonably be compared to the Wild West in one of their rougher years.

The Low Before The High

In my post on Monday 10th Feb I was looking at the bull flag setups on SPX and QQQ and the historically bullish lean through Tuesday 18th Feb and was projecting that we might well see retests of the all time highs on SPX and QQQ in that bullish window. We saw those all time high retests on QQQ on Friday 14th Feb and on SPX on Tuesday 18th Feb.

In my post on Wednesday 19th Feb I was looking at the very nice looking topping setups on SPX, QQQ and DIA and the historically bearish lean through Friday 28th Feb and suggesting that, if these patterns were going to deliver, then this bearish window would be a good time to get started on that.

Obviously that bearish window has delivered hard, and today is the last day in that bearish window, with the historical stats for today closing green 28.6% of the time.

One thing I’ve mentioned regularly below over the years is that we often see, at a serious high, a spike down that is then recovered before the real move begins. This happens a lot, and I’ve been weighing the possibility that we might see that here. In a forming high I call this making the low before the (main) high. These also happen at big lows and there I call this making the high before the low.

If we are going to see that happen, there is a decent case that the obvious place to see that reversal back up would be in this area.

On the daily chart SPX hit the rising support trendline from the last 2023 low at the low yesterday. That is a big support level, hit at the lowest daily RSI 5 level seen in the last two years.

SPX daily chart:

On the SPX hourly chart the smaller of the two nested double tops that I’ve been watching has broken down with a target in the 5695 to 5710 range, with the larger double top support at 5773.31. That is the downside scenario here of course.

In the short term though, there is a possible decent quality falling wedge that has formed from the high, and a possible hourly RSI 14 buy signal is brewing. A reversal higher today could break up from that falling wedge, fix that signal, and set a strong rally rolling.

If we do see that, I’d be watching the weekly middle band, currently in the 5962 area, as a close today near or above that would avoid a closing break below that key support level.

SPX 60min chart:

There is also a possible hourly RSI 14 buy signal brewing here on QQQ, as QQQ starts a a test of the key 500 level. A sustained break below 499.70 fixes a double top target in the 458-61 area but this is a big support level and we could see a decent rally start here.

If we do see that, I’d be watching the weekly middle band, currently in the 514 area, as a close today near or above that would avoid a closing break below that key support level.

QQQ 60min chart:

On DIA a weak hourly RSI 14 buy signal has already fixed, and a high quality bull flag megaphone has formed. If that breaks down then DIA can continue down towards double top support at 417.73, but until then the megaphone is suggesting that we could see another retest of the all time high next.

DIA 60min chart:

The H&S that have been looking at on IWM has now broken down with a target in the 183 area. There’s not much in terms of positive divergence or reversal setups to see on IWM here, but whenever a reversal pattern like this breaks down there is an opportunity either to reject back up into the high, or to continue down towards the target, and that generally happens not long after the break.

IWM daily chart:

I think a significant high has been forming here, and that topping process may well be complete, but if there is a last high to be be made in this process, then this would be an obvious place to see that. We’ll see how that goes.

As I have been since the start of 2025 I’m still leaning on the bigger picture towards a weak first half of 2025 and new all time highs later in the year, very possibly as a topping process for a much more significant high. One way or another I think we’ll be seeing lower soon and I’m not expecting this to be a good year for US equities, not least because both of the last two years have been banner years for US equities. A third straight year of these kinds of gains looks like a big stretch. I could of course however be mistaken. Everyone have a great weekend. :-)

If you like my analysis and would like to see more, please take a free subscription at my chartingthemarkets substack, where I publish these posts first. I also do a premarket video every day on equity indices, bonds, currencies, energies, precious commodities and other commodities at 8.45am EST. If you’d like to see those I post the links every morning on my twitter, and the videos are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel.

The Year Of The News Bomb

In my post on Monday 10th Feb I was looking at the bull flag setups on SPX and QQQ and the historically bullish lean through Tuesday 18th Feb and was projecting that we might well see retests of the all time highs on SPX and QQQ in that bullish window. We saw those all time high retests on QQQ on Friday 14th Feb and on SPX on Tuesday 18th Feb.

In my post on Wednesday 19th Feb I was looking at the very nice looking topping setups on SPX, QQQ and DIA and the historically bearish lean through Friday 28th Feb and suggesting that, if these patterns were going to deliver, then this bearish window would be a good time to get started on that.

So here we are, with that bearish window ending at the close tomorrow, with the stats for tomorrow leaning strongly bearish on SPX at 28.6% green closes historically.

Obviously there are large and high quality topping patterns on SPX, QQQ, DIA and to a lesser extent on IWM, and if these are to play out, as I think they may, then this decline has just been getting started. So let’s review the action so far.

On the daily charts this has been a strong decline, with DIA and IWM hitting the daily 3sd lower bands late last week and SPX touching the daily 3sd lower band on Tuesday. NDX has been the strongest but has reached the standard daily lower band.

The touch of the 3sd daily lower band on SPX generally triggers a decent rally, with the obvious target for that at the daily middle band, currently at 6049. We may see that next week, subject to news bombs and the reaction to the implementation of further tariffs on China, and initial tariffs on Canada and Mexico, all currently expected to be implemented on Tuesday 4th March. Conversion of the daily middle bands to resistance, particularly on SPX and QQQ/NDX would open up further downside.

SPX daily BBs chart:

The weekly middle bands are a further very key level that bears need to break (weekly close basis) and convert to resistance, and if we see a weak close tomorrow then we could see a clear closing break below the weekly middle band, currently at 5966. If seen, that break would need to be confirmed with another close below it next week, and if instead we were to see a strong rejection then that would lean towards another retest of the all time high.

SPX weekly BBs chart:

The NDX weekly chart looks similar, and a weak close tomorrow would likely deliver a closing break below the weekly middle band on NDX, currently at 21,157.80. There is another big support level that I’m watching, possibly an important target here, and that is rising wedge support from the late 2022 low, currently in the 20,725 area.

NDX weekly chart:

In the short term I’d note that QQQ has a possible hourly RSI 14 buy signal brewing, and that main double top support is not far below at 499.70.

QQQ 60min chart:

On DIA a weak hourly RSI 14 buy signal has already fixed and a high quality support trendline has been established that could be the support trendline on a high quality bull flag megaphone that could be signalling a return to retest the all time high next.

DIA 60min chart:

On the bigger picture there are now therefore high quality topping patterns across the board on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM. In fact I can’t remember seeing all four of these have topping patterns of this high quality in the last twenty years.

Are we going to see these topping setups deliver? Very possibly I think. Trump and his administration are disruptors and will likely be shaking a lot of trees this year. They have already made a very strong start on that and look set to continue. Many of those trees likely need a good shake, but disruption delivers uncertainty and markets tend to not like uncertainty.

Depending on what is next we could well see significant spikes in inflation (tariffs), unemployment (federal government layoffs) and interest rates (inflation) in coming months and in my view the chances of seeing significant bond market disruption (planned tax cuts) this year are high and the odds of seeing a recession (unemployment & interest rates) start this year are far from insignificant. Trump was saying that there might well be some pain this year and I entirely agree. Some of that pain may well feed through into equity markets sooner rather than later.

I’m still leaning on the bigger picture towards a weak first half of 2025 and new all time highs later in the year, very possibly as a topping process for a much more significant high. One way or another I think we’ll be seeing lower soon and I’m not expecting this to be a good year for US equities, not least because both of the last two years have been banner years for US equities. A third straight year of these kinds of gains looks like a big stretch. I could of course however be mistaken. Everyone have a great weekend. :-)

If you like my analysis and would like to see more, please take a free subscription at my chartingthemarkets substack, where I publish these posts first. I also do a premarket video every day on equity indices, bonds, currencies, energies, precious commodities and other commodities at 8.45am EST. If you’d like to see those I post the links every morning on my twitter, and the videos are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel.

Crypto Hitting Big Support

In my last post I was looking at the big support levels on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD). I was leaning towards seeing a retracement / consolidation on Crypto in the first half of this year and then strong new highs towards the end of the year with possible bull market highs pencilled in for Nov/Dec 2025.

That is still my view and I still don’t think that the bull market is over. I did promise to cover why that is in this post but I have other things to look at today so I’ll be looking at that in another post before the end of the week.

On Bitcoin (BTCUSD) I was looking at a very obvious backtest target at the 2021 bull market highs. I’ve marked that on the chart below in the $64.9k to $69k range. I also have a rising support trendline from the October 2023 low that is currently in the $65k area and due to reach $69k in May.

As it happened a very high quality double top had formed on Bitcoin that on a sustained break below $89.2k would have a target in the $69.1k area. This double top has now broken down.

At this point I would expect that either Bitcoin will either reject back up to a retest of the all time high or continue down to the double top target in the $69k to $70k range. It is very likely that Bitcoin will do one or the other.

There is another thing to mention on the weekly chart below. A few weeks ago weekly sell signals fixed on both RSI 14 and RSI 5. Of these two, I would expect the RSI 5 sell signal to make target in this retracement and if you look at the chart below you can see that the RSI 5 sell signal is now reaching the target in the 30 area on the RSI 5. I would qualify that though by noting that the position of that RSI 5 low only fixes at the end of the week, in this case on Sunday night, and if we see a big rally in the meantime, then that might not then reach either the target or even the possible near miss target in the 35 area, so the close this week is very important.

BTCUSD weekly chart:

On the daily chart there was a fixed RSI 14 sell signal that I was expecting to make target in this retracement and that has now made target at the close yesterday.

It is possible that Bitcoin could make a low here and reject back up to the high, though if the reversal started in earnest next week, that would likely be better for the weekly RSI 5 sell signal.

BTCUSD daily chart:

On Solana I gave three big support ranges and we were testing the second 180-216 range on a weekly close basis at the time. The third level is the 120-150 support/resistance range and Solana is now testing that and, with the low so far today at 131.97, is towards the lower end of that range. This is a range that might well hold and on a break below there is a last level at the Aug 2024 low at 110.02 that, if broken, would then raise a very real question as to whether the bull market is over.

On the daily chart I would note that Solana has hit the daily 3sd lower band yesterday and today and at the minimum this would generally mean that a rally is close.

SOLUSD daily chart:

There is also a possible decline pattern that I was looking at yesterday and could be an indication that Solana is close to a low.

On the 15min chart yesterday there was a rally from a low just under 140 that established a possible very high quality support trendline with an ideal anchor at a January high at 223.16.

Solana then went lower overnight, but there is a possible falling wedge from the all time high here now and the break lower overnight could be a bullish underthrow. There is a short term IHS target (not shown) in the 152 area and I’ll be watching any test of declining resistance from the all time high, currently in the 168 area.

I would add that there is currently no positive divergence on the daily chart but if we were to see a rally here followed by a low retest that held, then we might well see a decent bottoming setup come together.

SOLUSD 15min chart:

On Ethereum (ETHUSD) there was an H&S from the highs with a target at a retest of the 2121.38 low, and Ethereum spiked down to 2135.28 a few days ago. I’m treating that H&S target as reached.

On the bigger picture there is a very clear and strong support/resistance range from 2000 to 2600. Obviously that is already being tested and my lean would be towards seeing that area hold unless Ethereum has started a terminal relative decline, which I think is a possibility. As far as I’m aware, there’s little that can be done on Ethereum that can’t be done faster and cheaper on Solana, so there is a question mark in my mind over Ethereum’s long term future.

ETHUSD daily chart:

On the bigger picture I am still leaning towards a retracement / consolidation on Crypto in the first half of 2025 and then strong new all time highs with a very possible bull market high pencilled in close to the end of the year. That scenario would be a good match with past Crypto bull markets.

I am wondering whether this sharp retracement on Solana and Ethereum particularly may now be bottoming out. There is no strong bottoming setup here yet but I’ll be watching closely to see whether one develops.

If you’d like to see more of these posts and the other Crypto videos and information I post, please subscribe for free to my Crypto substack. I also do a premarket video every day on Crypto at 9.05am EST. If you’d like to see those I post the links every morning on my twitter, and the videos are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel.

I'm also to be found at Arion Partners, though as a student rather than as a teacher. I've been charting Crypto for some years now, but am learning to trade and invest in them directly, and Arion Partners are my guide around a space that might reasonably be compared to the Wild West in one of their rougher years.

An Uncertainty Principle

In my post on Monday 10th Feb I was looking at the bull flag setups on SPX and QQQ and the historically bullish lean through Tuesday 18th Feb and was projecting that we might well see retests of the all time highs on SPX and QQQ in that bullish window. We saw those all time high retests on QQQ on Friday 14th Feb and on SPX on Tuesday 18th Feb.

In my post on Wednesday 19th Feb I was looking at the very nice looking topping setups on SPX, QQQ and DIA and the historically bearish lean through Friday 28th Feb and suggesting that if these patterns were going to deliver, then this bearish window would be a good time to get started on that.

Are we going to see these topping setups deliver? Very possibly I think. Trump and his administration are disruptors and will likely be shaking a lot of trees this year. They have already made a very strong start on that and look set to continue. Many of those trees likely need a good shake, but disruption delivers uncertainty and markets tend to not like uncertainty.

Depending on what is next we could well see significant spikes in inflation (tariffs), unemployment (federal government layoffs) and interest rates (inflation) in coming months and in my view the chances of seeing significant bond market disruption (planned tax cuts) this year are high and the odds of seeing a recession (unemployment & interest rates) start this year are far from insignificant. Trump was saying that there might well be some pain this year and I entirely agree. Some of that pain may well feed through into equity markets.

As we are here, equities look very fully valued, we have just finished two very strong years on equity markets, Warren Buffett has been selling into strength for months and, as I mentioned, markets historically don’t like uncertainty.

After the sharp decline on Friday we would normally see a rally. That rally might take us back to new highs, but more likely I suspect it lasts a day or three and then follows through to the downside. I’m not looking at that in detail here but if you’d like to see that explained I covered that in detail in my The Bigger Picture webinar last night and you can see that here.

On the (small caps) bigger picture here there was a clear bearish engulfing candle on SPX last week, and you can see on the chart below that these are seen regularly at significant highs. On the chart below the obvious examples are the highs in Jan and Oct 2018, Jan 2022, July 2023 & July 2024. Not an entirely reliable indicator but those were all significant highs delivering declines of at least 5%.

SPX weekly chart:

On the (small caps) bigger picture here there was also a clear bearish engulfing candle on NDX last week (I use NDX for the weekly and monthly charts rather than QQQ), and you can see on the chart below that these again are seen regularly at significant highs, though not as often as on SPX. On the chart below the obvious examples are the highs in Oct 2018 (not shown), Nov 2021, April 2022, & Dec 2024. Not an entirely reliable indicator again but those were all significant highs delivering declines of at least 5%.

NDX weekly chart:

Looking again at the high quality topping setups I was looking at in my last post, rising support from the January low broke on SPX on Friday and the nested double top setup there is as follows:

On the first and smaller double top setup a sustained break below 5923.93 would look for a target in the 5720 area.

On the second and larger double top setup a sustained break below 5773.31 would look for a target in the 5418 - 5447 area.

If this full nested double top setup delivers this retracement would retrace a bit more than 61.8% of the rising wedge from the August low at 5119.26 and this might well just be a bullish retracement before the all time high is retested.

SPX 60min chart:

On QQQ the new all time high set up a high quality double top. A sustained break below 499.70 would fix a double top target in the 459.40 to 461.10 range.

If this setup delivers this retracement would retrace a bit more than 61.8% of the rising wedge from the August low at 422.18 and this might well just be a bullish retracement before the all time high is retested.

QQQ 60min chart:

There is also a high quality double top setup on DIA, and on a sustained break below 418.35 the double top target would be in the 386/7 area, almost a full retracement of the rising wedge on DIA from the August low at 381.87 and this nonetheless might well just be a bullish retracement before the all time high is retested.

DIA 60min chart:

On IWM there is still an open high quality double top target in the 206 to 209.5 area, and a possible larger H&S forming that isn’t of the same high quality but I’ll still be watching with interest.

There are now therefore high quality topping patterns across the board on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM. In fact I can’t remember seeing all four of these have topping patterns of this high quality in the last twenty years. We’ll see whether those can deliver & I think they have a real shot at doing that.

I’m still leaning on the bigger picture towards a weak first half of 2025 and new all time highs later in the year, very possibly as a topping process for a much more significant high. One way or another I think we’ll be seeing lower soon and I’m not expecting this to be a good year for US equities, not least because both of the last two years have been banner years for US equities. A third straight year of these kinds of gains looks like a big stretch. I could of course however be mistaken. Everyone have a great weekend. :-)

If you like my analysis and would like to see more, please take a free subscription at my chartingthemarkets substack, where I publish these posts first. I also do a premarket video every day on equity indices, bonds, currencies, energies, precious commodities and other commodities at 8.45am EST. If you’d like to see those I post the links every morning on my twitter, and the videos are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel.

Looking at Crypto Support Levels

In December I was leaning towards seeing a retracement / consolidation on Crypto in the first half of this year and then strong new highs towards the end of the year with possible bull market highs pencilled in for Nov/Dec 2025.

That retracement / consolidation is now in progress and I’ll be looking today at the key support levels I’ll be watching on what I expect to be a bullish consolidation.

Is it possible that the Crypto bull market has already ended? Yes, but I’m leaning against that. I’ll be explaining why that is in my next post.

On Bitcoin (BTCUSD) there is a very obvious backtest target at the 2021 bull market highs. I’ve marked that on the chart below in the $64.9k to $69k range. I also have a rising support trendline from the October 2023 low that is currently in the $65k area and due to reach $69k in May.

As it happens a very high quality double top has formed on Bitcoin that on a sustained break below $89.2k would have a target in the $69.1k area. I think this double top may well deliver and make a retracement low in this area.

BTCUSD weekly chart:

On Ethereum (ETHUSD) there was an H&S from the highs with a target at a retest of the 2121.38 low, and Ethereum spiked down to 2135.28 a few days ago. I’m treating that H&S target as reached.

On the bigger picture there is a very clear and strong support/resistance range from 2000 to 2600. Obviously that is already being tested and my lean would be towards seeing that area hold unless Ethereum has started a terminal relative decline, which I think is a possibility. As far as I’m aware, there’s little that can be done on Ethereum that can’t be done faster and cheaper on Solana, so there is a question mark in my mind over Ethereum’s long term future.

Of these three largest coins Ethereum is the only one that hasn’t made a new all time high so far in this bull market, and I’m wondering whether it will.

ETHUSD weekly chart:

Solana (SOLUSD) has four obvious big support levels, and the highest level was a long shot. That would have been in effect a conversion of the 2021 high at 259.95 to support, and I’d have been considering that seriously if Solana had broken hard over 300. It didn’t though and that area was quickly lost.

The second level is the 180-216 support/resistance range. This has a strong record of holding on a weekly close basis, and still might, though the break down to $160 on the $LIBRA scandal news wasn’t encouraging. If that breaks then ……

The third level is the 120-150 support/resistance range and if the second level breaks this is the range that I would expect to be tested next and likely deliver a low.

The fourth level is the 50-80 support/resistance range and I’m not expecting this to be tested, not least because this was backtested and converted to support a year ago as Solana was starting the run that then saw it almost quadruple into December 2024. I’m including this last level only because there is a decent quality double top marked on the chart below that is trying to break down with a target in the 45 to 75 area.

I have seen a lot of oversized double tops like this form and break down over the years and these only very rarely reach target. If this pattern was on Ethereum, which does have serious question marks over its future then I would be considering this a bit more seriously but would still be doubtful.

Why has Solana been hammered so hard in recent weeks? Well it is the cheapest and fastest credible blockchain network and that’s a very good thing for future prospects. On the downside though, these qualities also make it a very attractive place to launch dubious or fraudulent memecoins for pumps and dumps, and the launch of the $TRUMP and $MELANIA memecoins in January was a dubious start to the year that was compounded by the launch and collapse of the (allegedly) scam memecoin $LIBRA last week.

Bigger picture though the fundamentals for Solana look solid and I’m expecting this to go a lot higher after this bullish consolidation completes. The memecoins are just background noise.

SOLUSD weekly chart:

In the short term on Solana the low at 160.83 set up a possible falling wedge on Solana and the rally off that low is supported by an RSI 14 buy signal that has not yet reached target. These signals have a good track record and the obvious target would be the declining/wedge resistance trendline, currently in the 185 area.

SOLUSD 60min chart:

As it happens a high quality IHS also formed at the low and broke up with a target in the 181 area & supported by the hourly RSI 14 buy signal I really like that as a minimum target, though there is a loose bear flag look to this rally so far.

If Solana can close the week back over 180 then it could still hold the 180 to 216 range on a weekly close basis. A close below opens the 120 to 150 range for testing.

SOLUSD 5min chart:

As I mentioned at the start, on the bigger picture I am still leaning towards a retracement / consolidation on Crypto in the first half of 2025 and then strong new all time highs with a very possible bull market high pencilled in close to the end of the year. That scenario would be a good match with past Crypto bull markets.

If you’d like to see more of these posts and the other Crypto videos and information I post, please subscribe for free to my Crypto substack. I also do a premarket video every day on Crypto at 9.05am EST. If you’d like to see those I post the links every morning on my twitter, and the videos are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel. 

I'm also to be found at Arion Partners, though as a student rather than as a teacher. I've been charting Crypto for some years now, but am learning to trade and invest in them directly, and Arion Partners are my guide around a space that might reasonably be compared to the Wild West in one of their rougher years.

So Here We Are

In my last post on Monday 10th Feb I was looking at the bull flag setups on SPX and QQQ and the historically bullish lean into yesterday and projecting that we might well see retests of the all time highs in that bullish window. We saw that all time high retest on QQQ on Friday and on SPX yesterday. So what now?

Well we now have impressive topping patterns on SPX and QQQ and a bearish window has started that runs through to the end of February, with notably bearish leaning days on Thursday and Friday this week, Monday 24th Feb and Friday 28th Feb. We will see how that develops.

On SPX the bullish setup I was looking at last week was a bull flag megaphone and that delivered a very marginal new all time high yesterday. The bearish pattern setup here is now a possible nested double top.

On the first and smaller double top setup a sustained break below 5923.93 would now look for a target in the 5720 area.

On the second and larger double top setup a sustained break below 5773.31 would now look for a target in the 5418 - 5447 area.

If this full nested double top setup delivers this retracement would retrace a bit more than 61.8% of the rising wedge from the August low at 5119.26.

Are we going to see this deliver? Very possibly I think. Trump and his administration are disruptors and will likely be shaking a lot of trees this year. Many of those trees likely need a good shake, but disruption delivers uncertainty and markets tend to not like uncertainty. We’ll see.

SPX 60min chart:

On QQQ the new all time high has set up a good quality double top. A sustained break below 499.70 would fix a double top target in the 459.40 to 461.10 range.

If this setup delivers this retracement would retrace a bit more than 61.8% of the rising wedge from the August low at 422.18.

QQQ 60min chart:

There is also a high quality double top setup on DIA of course, and on a sustained break below 418.35 the double top target would be in the 386/7 area, almost a full retracement of the rising wedge on DIA from the August low at 381.87.

I would note that there is a possible short term bull flag triangle forming on DIA and another on IWM, but both are at too early a stage to identify the patterns with any confidence.

DIA 60min chart:

If we do see this double top play out on DIA then I would note that the rising support trendline from the October 2023 low is now in the 367 area, and might well be the bigger picture target for any retracement here.

I would also note that DIA has been struggling to hold the daily middle band as support, trading slightly below it at the time of writing.

DIA daily chart:

IWM has been failing to hold support at the daily middle band in recent days, with a break below that on Friday that confirmed with another close below yesterday. With that and the 50dma holding as resistance for the last two months, IWM is already in a technical downtrend, and the double top target area 207 to 209.5 that fixed in December is still valid.

There is also a possible much larger H&S forming that on a sustained break down below 213.97 would look for a target in the 183.70 area.

IWM daily chart:

I’ve been expecting to see some market turbulence in the first half of this year, and the imposition of new tariffs on many of the trading partners of the US is a possible trigger to see that turbulence. I’ve been reading that Trump’s administration is considering a position that the value added (sales) taxes levied across Europe may in effect be tariffs. That’s absurd, as those taxes apply to all sales regardless of the source, but if retaliatory tariffs started being levied against Europe on that basis, then a trade war with Europe would seem likely as a result. That could significantly disrupt world trade and markets.

On the bigger picture, I have some real sympathy with Trump’s embrace of tariffs. The US government is on a slide towards insolvency, with the current year’s deficit apparently on track to reach $2.5 trillion. It is very hard to raise taxes in the US. A lot of money could be raised using tariffs which might improve that fiscal situation, though it’s hard to say what the knock-on effect on inflation and growth might be, other than to say that the obvious lean would be towards inflation rising and growth falling.

There are now high quality topping patterns across the board on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM. We’ll see whether those can deliver.

I’m still leaning on the bigger picture towards a weak first half of 2025 and new all time highs later in the year, very possibly as a topping process for a much more significant high. One way or another I think we’ll be seeing lower soon and I’m not expecting this to be a good year for US equities. The last two years have been banner years for US equities. A third straight year of these kinds of gains looks like a big stretch. I could of course however be mistaken. Everyone have a great weekend. :-)

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