In my last post I was looking at the big support levels on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD) and Ethereum (ETHUSD). I was leaning towards seeing a retracement / consolidation on Crypto in the first half of this year and then strong new highs towards the end of the year with possible bull market highs pencilled in for Nov/Dec 2025.
That is still my view and I still don’t think that the bull market is over. I did promise to cover why that is in this post but I have other things to look at today so I’ll be looking at that in another post before the end of the week.
As it happened a very high quality double top had formed on Bitcoin that on a sustained break below $89.2k would have a target in the $69.1k area. This double top has now broken down.
At this point I would expect that either Bitcoin will either reject back up to a retest of the all time high or continue down to the double top target in the $69k to $70k range. It is very likely that Bitcoin will do one or the other.
There is another thing to mention on the weekly chart below. A few weeks ago weekly sell signals fixed on both RSI 14 and RSI 5. Of these two, I would expect the RSI 5 sell signal to make target in this retracement and if you look at the chart below you can see that the RSI 5 sell signal is now reaching the target in the 30 area on the RSI 5. I would qualify that though by noting that the position of that RSI 5 low only fixes at the end of the week, in this case on Sunday night, and if we see a big rally in the meantime, then that might not then reach either the target or even the possible near miss target in the 35 area, so the close this week is very important.
BTCUSD weekly chart:
On the daily chart there was a fixed RSI 14 sell signal that I was expecting to make target in this retracement and that has now made target at the close yesterday.
It is possible that Bitcoin could make a low here and reject back up to the high, though if the reversal started in earnest next week, that would likely be better for the weekly RSI 5 sell signal.
BTCUSD daily chart:
On Solana I gave three big support ranges and we were testing the second 180-216 range on a weekly close basis at the time. The third level is the 120-150 support/resistance range and Solana is now testing that and, with the low so far today at 131.97, is towards the lower end of that range. This is a range that might well hold and on a break below there is a last level at the Aug 2024 low at 110.02 that, if broken, would then raise a very real question as to whether the bull market is over.
On the daily chart I would note that Solana has hit the daily 3sd lower band yesterday and today and at the minimum this would generally mean that a rally is close.
SOLUSD daily chart:
There is also a possible decline pattern that I was looking at yesterday and could be an indication that Solana is close to a low.
On the 15min chart yesterday there was a rally from a low just under 140 that established a possible very high quality support trendline with an ideal anchor at a January high at 223.16.
Solana then went lower overnight, but there is a possible falling wedge from the all time high here now and the break lower overnight could be a bullish underthrow. There is a short term IHS target (not shown) in the 152 area and I’ll be watching any test of declining resistance from the all time high, currently in the 168 area.
I would add that there is currently no positive divergence on the daily chart but if we were to see a rally here followed by a low retest that held, then we might well see a decent bottoming setup come together.
SOLUSD 15min chart:
On Ethereum (ETHUSD) there was an H&S from the highs with a target at a retest of the 2121.38 low, and Ethereum spiked down to 2135.28 a few days ago. I’m treating that H&S target as reached.
On the bigger picture there is a very clear and strong support/resistance range from 2000 to 2600. Obviously that is already being tested and my lean would be towards seeing that area hold unless Ethereum has started a terminal relative decline, which I think is a possibility. As far as I’m aware, there’s little that can be done on Ethereum that can’t be done faster and cheaper on Solana, so there is a question mark in my mind over Ethereum’s long term future.
ETHUSD daily chart:
On the bigger picture I am still leaning towards a retracement / consolidation on Crypto in the first half of 2025 and then strong new all time highs with a very possible bull market high pencilled in close to the end of the year. That scenario would be a good match with past Crypto bull markets.
I am wondering whether this sharp retracement on Solana and Ethereum particularly may now be bottoming out. There is no strong bottoming setup here yet but I’ll be watching closely to see whether one develops.
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I'm also to be found at Arion Partners, though as a student rather than as a teacher. I've been charting Crypto for some years now, but am learning to trade and invest in them directly, and Arion Partners are my guide around a space that might reasonably be compared to the Wild West in one of their rougher years.
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