In my post on Tuesday last week I was looking at the very promising rally setup on Crypto and was looking at the important daily middle band resistance that needed to be broken and converted to open the upside. That didn’t go quite as hoped and in my last post on Friday last week I put forward an alternate scenario where the IHS pattern on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Solana (SOLUSD) wouldn’t make targets as it was bear flags that were forming.
In my premarket post this morning I was looking at the bear flags and, coupled with the matching flags on US equity indices, was calling a likely high. We;'‘ll see how that goes.
On the Bitcoin 60min chart a good quality rising wedge bear flag has formed. A break below wedge support in the 86k area looks for a return to the March low at 76.6k.
BTCUSD 60min chart:
On the Solana 60min chart a good quality rising channel bear flag has formed. A break below channel support in the 130 area looks for a return to the March low at 112.19.
SOLUSD 60min chart:
On the Ethereum (ETHUSD) 60min chart a decent quality rising wedge bear flag has formed. A break below wedge support in the 1980 area looks for a return to the March low at 1754.47.
ETHUSD 60min chart:
On the bigger picture Bitcoin has broken down from a high quality double top with a target in the 69k to 70k area. My expectation is that Bitcoin will make this target in the next few weeks and this may be the start of that leg down.
BTCUSD daily chart:
On the much bigger picture I still think that talk of the next bear market on Crypto having already started is premature. It’s possible but there’s no compelling evidence for that so far. I think Bitcoin likely has some more downside coming but I think Solana and Ethereum may already be starting to make their lows for this move.
Against that the setup on equities is looking ncreasingly in favor of at least a technical bear market decline of 20% this year and possibly a lot more than that. If so, that could drag Crypto down into a full bear market with it. We’ll see. Everyone have a great weekend :-)
So far this year I have been and am still leaning towards seeing weakness in the first half of the year and renewed strength in the second half of 2025, with a very possible bull market high on Crypto pencilled in close to the end of the year. That scenario would be a good match with past Crypto bull markets. Is it possible that I am mistaken? Always, but we can only ever try to identify the higher probability paths in the future. Only time can show us the path that is actually taken. Still, I’m with Confucious who said ‘study the past, if you would divine the future’.
If you’d like to see more of these posts and the other Crypto videos and information I post, please subscribe for free to my Crypto substack. I also do a premarket video every day on Crypto at 9.05am EST. If you’d like to see those I post the links every morning on my twitter, and the videos are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel.
I'm also to be found at Arion Partners, though as a student rather than as a teacher. I've been charting Crypto for some years now, but am learning to trade and invest in them directly, and Arion Partners are my guide around a space that might reasonably be compared to the Wild West in one of their rougher years.
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