Thanksgiving Rally - The Key Resistance Levels

In my posts on 20th October, 24th October, and 28th October I was looking at the rising wedges on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM from the April lows and weighing the odds of these breaking down into a substantial retracement in the near future.

I was saying that these are all good quality mature patterns that I would normally expect to break down, but was concerned that we might instead see the start of a larger break up into December.

In my post on 7th November I was noting that all those wedges had broken down and gave some downside target areas that I was looking at initially.

In my last post on 20th November I was reviewing the bearish setups after all those initial target areas had been reached and looking at the larger H&S patterns that had since formed and were starting to break down.

I mentioned at the end of the post that a problem for bears might be that the historical stats all leaned bullish from last Friday through Wednesday. Thursday is the Thanksgiving holiday of course and Friday is a half trading day so in effect this whole but short holiday week leans bullish.

In my premarket video for subscribers on Friday morning I was calling a likely rally and looking at weak hourly buy signals fixed or brewing across the board on ES, NQ, RTY and YM.

Since Friday morning we have been seeing a strong rally and obviously the historical stats still lean bullish today or tomorrow, so the question is whether this rally could be strong enough to derail the bear setup and trigger a likely retest of all time highs on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM.

SPX has rallied back to the 50dma yesterday and, as ever, the key resistance level that I’m watching is the daily middle band, which closed yesterday at 6754.66. I’m also watching the daily middle band on QQQ (not shown below) which closed yesterday at 614.19. A confirmed break over either or both of these key resistance levels would likely deliver all time high retests across the board.

SPX daily chart:

On the SPX hourly chart an H&S broke down last Thursday with a target in the 6200 area. That H&S would be invalidated on as break over the H&S right shoulder high at 6770.35, slightly over the daily middle band.

SPX 60min chart:

On the QQQ hourly chart an H&S broke down last Thursday with a target in the 542 area. That H&S would be invalidated on as break over the H&S right shoulder high at 614.03, slightly below the daily middle band.

QQQ 60min chart:

On the DIA hourly chart an H&S broke down last Thursday with a target in the 433 area. That H&S would be invalidated on a break over the H&S right shoulder high at 468.44. However if this this H&S fails the right shoulder on an alternate and perhaps better H&S may be forming, so I wouldn’t see this as a major failure.

DIA 60min chart:

On the IWM hourly chart an H&S broke down last Thursday with a target in the 208.50 area. That H&S was invalidated on the break over the H&S right shoulder high at 239.10. However an earlier high quality H&S has previously broken down with a target in the 220.5 area and that H&S is still valid, so again, not a major failure yet.

IWM 60min chart:

The bottom line here is that SPX and QQQ need to hold their daily middle bands as resistance. If they do, the downside scenario still looks good and I’ll be leaning towards more downside. If SPX and/or QQQ break back over their daily middle bands and the H&S patterns on these fail I’d be looking for all time high retests across the board in a likely rally through Xmas.

If we do see more downside, I’d be expecting that to happen in the first two weeks of December.

If you don’t hear from me beforehand have a great Thanksgiving. :-)

If you like my analysis and would like to see more, please take a free subscription at my chartingthemarkets substack, where I publish these posts first. I also do a premarket video every day on equity indices, bonds, currencies, energies, precious commodities and other commodities at 8.45am EST, but only for paying subscribers. Other places to find me are my page on the platform previously known as twitter, and my YouTube channel.

The Bull Market On Crypto Is Likely Over

In my post on Wednesday 22nd October I was looking at the major support being tested on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD), and Ethereum (ETHUSD), and saying that sustained breaks below those support levels would boost the case that the bull market on Crypto had already ended, barring possible high retests as part of the topping process.

In my post on Thursday 30th October I was looking in detail at those key support levels on the weekly and daily charts and looking at the possible H&S patterns forming on the Solana and Ethereum charts.

In my last post on Tuesday 4th November I was looking at the H&S patterns on the Solana and Ethereum charts, which had started breaking down, and was warning that these big three Crypto instruments were on the verge of a clear break down that would likely confirm the end of the bull market from the December 2022 low.

Since then we have seen that break down, and the bull market on Crypto is likely over, barring a possible high retest on Bitcoin to make the second high of a double top.

In the shorter term Bitcoin reached the double top target in the 88.3k to 90k range, and then all the way down to 80.6k before starting a rally with equities on Friday.

This rally could have legs, this is Thanksgiving week, with bullish leaning days (on equities) Monday through Wednesday this week, a holiday on Thursday and a half trading day on Friday. A strong enough performance on equities this week could start a Santa rally, and that would likely pull Crypto prices up as well.

In terms of downside targets the key support at the 50 week MA, currently at 102,360, has been broken and we saw a second confirming weekly close below yesterday. If we see a strong rally from Friday’s low then that could be a rally target, but historically there’s no reason to expect a retest this soon after the break.

On the downside the double top has already reached target but there is another very obvious target below. The 2021 high was at 69k, and the first new high above that in March 2024 was at 73.8k. After a bull flag formed from there into October 2024 (which I called as it formed) then the next leg up was into 109.3k and the next bull flag (which I called as it formed) bottomed in April 2025 at 74.4k, an almost perfect backtest of the broken high at 73.8k.

What this means is that there is a very strong support level and possible H&S neckline in the 74.4k area and, if there is more downside coming soon, that would be the obvious target, and I’d expect to see decent support there.

BTCUSD weekly chart:

On the Bitcoin daily chart the obvious target for a strong rally would be at the daily middle band, currently in the 95.9k area. On a sustained break above that I’d be watching for the resistance at the 50 week MA, currently in the 102.36k area.

BTCUSD daily chart:

On the Ethereum weekly chart the key support was at the 50 week MA, currently in the 3100 area. That has now seen two weekly closes below so that is a confirmed support break.

ETHUSD weekly chart:

On the Ethereum daily chart there is still a fixed H&S target in the 2050 area, and I’m not seeing anything to suggest that target won’t be reached, but if we see a rally here the obvious first target would be the daily middle band, currently at 3172, and on a sustained break above those the obvious targets would be the 200dma, currently at 3509, just below the 50dma, currently at 3662.

Wherever this potential rally tops out, I’d still expect that H&S target in the 2050 area to be reached.

ETHUSD daily chart:

Solana is a somewhat different story, as Solana is the only one of these three where there is positive divergence on the daily chart. If we see a close today in the 137k area that Solana has reached at the time of writing, both RSI 14 and RSI 5 buy signals would fix.

The first big target for a rally would also be the daily middle band, currently at 144.15, but on a break above I would note that there is a possible double bottom setup on the chart below, and on a sustained break above 144.65 the double top target would be in the 160.60 to 167.75 area, setting up a possible backtest of the 50dma, currently in the 174 area.

On the downside there is a fixed H&S target at a retest of the April low at 95.24, and the IHS that had previously broken up with as target in the 282-3 was invalidated on Friday’s break below that IHS right shoulder low at 126.09.

Wherever this potential rally tops out, I’d still expect that H&S target at 95.24 to be reached.

SOLUSD daily chart:

What’s the bottom line here? This Crypto bull market is likely over, Bitcoin is likely in a topping process that might involve a high retest, and the next obvious big move on all three of these is a bear market that should last through 2026 into a likely low close to the end of 2026.

I’m not going to get another Crypto post out before Thanksgiving but I’m planning another post before the end of the week to look at what we can likely expect to see in the bear market that we should see next year.

Since I started doing daily videos on Crypto early last year I’ve got Crypto direction right most of the time and more so than any other analyst anywhere that I’m aware of. I’m a very good analyst and all three of these instruments are very classical chartist friendly. I’m not much of a marketer though, and the free Crypto substack I set up last August still has less than 200 readers. I’d like to increase that readership and invite any suggestions on how I could do that.

If you’d like to see more of these posts please subscribe for free to my Crypto substack. I also do a premarket video every day (except tomorrow at 8.00am) on Crypto at 8.30am EST with morning charts for paying subscribers. All the videos I record are posted shortly after a delay of three days on my Youtube channel, and every post I publish is linked on my twitter.

The Bull That Didn't Charge

In my posts on 20th October, 24th October, and 28th October I was looking at the rising wedges on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM from the April lows and weighing the odds of these breaking down into a substantial retracement in the near future.

I was saying that these are all good quality mature patterns that I would normally expect to break down, but was concerned that we might instead see the start of a larger break up into December.

In my last post on 7th November I was noting that all those wedges had broken down and gave some downside target areas that I was looking at initially.

On SPX I was looking at the 6675 area, and on a break below, the possible H&S neckline at 6555.

The 6555 target area was hit yesterday, and the wild rally from the low yesterday and then full reversal back into lower lows today set up the H&S right shoulder, which has now broken down with a target in the 6200 area.

SPX 60min chart:

On QQQ I was looking at the retest of the October low and possible H&S neckline at 589.05.

The 589.05 target area was hit yesterday, and the wild rally from the low yesterday and then full reversal back into lower lows today set up the H&S right shoulder, which has now broken down with a target in the 542 area.

QQQ 60min chart:

On DIA I was looking at the retest of the October low and possible H&S neckline at 454.41.

DIA came close to that H&S neckline yesterday and even closer today. The wild rally from the low yesterday and then full reversal back into lower lows today set up the H&S right shoulder, which has now broken down with a target in the 433 area.

DIA 60min chart:

On IWM I was looking at the retest of the October low and possible H&S neckline at 237.55, though I noted that target was a lot closer than on the others as IWM had been leading the decline.

IWM hit that 237.55 target area, formed and H&S right shoulder and then broke down. However it then hit a lower alternate H&S neckline at 231 yesterday. From there the wild rally from the low yesterday and then full reversal back into lower lows today set up the larger H&S right shoulder, which has now broken down with a target in the 208.5 area.

IWM 60min chart:

I’ve been calling this pretty well on the way down, though the speed has surprised me.

In my subscriber only premarket video yesterday morning I had five of my six equity index futures with hourly 60min buy signals fixed or brewing, and predicted a strong rally.

In my subscriber only premarket video this morning I was looking at the possible H&S patterns forming across these four US equity indices and gave target areas which were all reached. I said I was expecting a low retest afterwards which we then saw this afternoon.

I will confess though that I was really expecting to see the lows retested on Monday or Tuesday and, if seen, that would have been considerably more bullish, with multiple possible daily RSI 5 buy signals forming at the low retest. The rally never made it to the close today, so those theoretical buy signals never had a chance to form.

That matters because the break down from these H&S patterns is an inflection point, and I would expect to see one of two outcomes here. The first is of course that these indices head further down and hit their H&S targets.

The second is that we see a full rejection back into the all time highs on all four of these indices, perhaps using the possible double bottoms formed by yesterday rally and today’s low retest to start that full reversal.

I like the double bottom setups here, but buy signals are very thin on the ground, with the only notable one being the hourly RSI 14 buy signal fixed on DIA. Usually if a full reversal was imminent, there would be more clues to suggest that might be coming.

In today’s premarket video I was asked whether I was expecting to see this decline last into the end of the year and I said no in reply. If we continue down from here then I’d still be looking for at least a strong rally and perhaps all time high retests in December, though likely as part of a larger topping process.

In the meantime there are clear targets below, and not much suggesting those won’t be hit. On the IWM daily chart below you can see that the daily middle band is turning down harder, the bands have expanded and there is plenty of room below to fall without hitting the daily 3sd lower band. Until we see more signs of life from bulls I’m looking lower.

IWM daily chart:

One potential fly in the bears’ soup however is that the historical stats all lean significantly bullish tomorrow through Wednesday next week. That hasn’t meant much in November so far but I’ll be watching that. The next bullish leaning day after Wednesday is on 8th December.

If you like my analysis and would like to see more, please take a free subscription at my chartingthemarkets substack, where I publish these posts first. I also do a premarket video every day on equity indices, bonds, currencies, energies, precious commodities and other commodities at 8.45am EST, but only for paying subscribers. Other places to find me are my page on the platform previously known as twitter, and my YouTube channel.

The Rising Wedges Break Down

In my posts on 20th October, 24th October, and 28th October I was looking at the rising wedges on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM from the April lows and weighing the odds of these breaking down into a substantial retracement in the near future.

I was saying that these are all good quality mature patterns that I would normally expect to break down, but was concerned that we might instead see the start of a larger break up into December.

My concerns to the upside were firstly that November and December lean significantly bullish, and that remains the case of course.

Shorter term I was concerned that the Fed cut might trigger an upside break but that didn’t happen.

I was concerned that an agreement with China might trigger an upside break but that didn’t happen.

I was concerned that this week is historically one of the most bullish weeks of the year and might kick off an upside break but that didn’t happen either.

Instead we have seen all of the rising wedges except the one on DIA (so far) break down and the downside has been persistent, delivering breaks below the daily middle bands on SPX and QQQ yesterday, a test of the daily middle band as support yesterday on DIA and a move to the daily lower band on IWM.

So what now? Well the first obvious point to reverse back up to the highs earlier this week was on Wednesday morning, when I was looking in my premarket video at the hourly buy signals fixed or forming on ES, NQ, RTY and DAX. That delivered a decent rally, the buy signals reached their targets, and the downtrend then resumed.

There is another opportunity to do that this morning, with hourly buy signals currently forming on ES, NQ, RTY, YM and DAX. That too could deliver a full reversal back up, but in the event that also fails to deliver that I’m going to look at the obvious target areas below on SPX, QQQ, DIA & IWM.

Looking at SPX there was a clear break yesterday below the daily middle band, which closed yesterday at 6748.75. If we see a close back above that today then that may be the start of a rejection back to the highs. If not then that would invite more downside. There was also a clear break below rising wedge support.

Where would the obvious downside target be? I have two levels. The first is the rising support trendline from the August low, currently in the 6675 area, but the main one would be a retest of the October low and possible H&S neckline at 6555.

SPX daily chart:

Looking at QQQ there was a clear break yesterday below the daily middle band, which closed yesterday at 614.50. If we see a close back above that today then that may be the start of a rejection back to the highs. If not then that would invite more downside. There was also a clear break below rising wedge support.

The obvious downside target would be a retest of the October low and possible H&S neckline at 589.05.

QQQ daily chart:

DIA tested the daily middle band, currently at 468.47 at the low yesterday, and that has held so far and may hold today. Rising wedge support has not been tested so far, but is not far below in the 465 area.

If both of those break then the obvious downside target would be a retest of the October low and possible H&S neckline at 454.41.

DIA 60min chart:

IWM has been the weakest of these four indices lately and broke below the daily middle band last week, almost reaching the daily lower band yesterday.

The obvious downside target there is also the retest of the October low and possible H&S neckline in the 237.55 area, though that target is much closer on IWM than on the others.

IWM 60min chart:

I’ve been publishing a chart of the day every day on my twitter for a while now as I see a lot of interesting charts in my reading and draw some more of those myself.

I have mentioned regularly the common misconception that the Fed sets interest rates, when in truth borrowing rates are based on the thirty and ten year treasuries, so Fed cuts don’t necessarily have any real world impact on borrowing rates.

I wrote a post mentioning this on 10th November last year and said:

Could the Fed solve this problem by keeping interest rates low? No, real long term interest rates are set by the government bond markets, and those long term treasury yields, ten year yields on TNX and thirty year yields on TYX, are determined by supply and demand on those bond markets. That’s the reason that while the Fed has reduced their benchmark rate by 0.75% over the last two months, government bond markets raised the yield on US 10 year treasuries by 0.88% over the same period. The Fed doesn’t control bond markets, any more than sailors control the sea.

The chart below illustrates that truth with the black and yellow trendlines being the thirty and ten year treasury yields respectively. I have added two boxes to highlight the Fed cuts in the last four months of 2024 and the cutting cycle starting now. The Fed has now cut 1.5% over this period and from when that cutting process started thirty year yields are currently up 0.75% and ten year yields are currently up 0.6%.

Borrowing costs have therefore risen significantly during this cutting cycle. They have also risen so far since the last rate cut in late October:

This retracement could be bottoming out here and the hourly buy signals brewing on multiple index futures charts could deliver that. Overall though I’m still leaning lower after a possible rally here and the obvious next big downside targets and support levels are the ones I’ve given above.

The bullish historical stats for this week were a bust. Next week leans neutral every day except Tuesday, which leans strongly bearish.

In the next few days I’ll be looking at the pattern setup for a possible bigger picture high forming here in another post.

If you like my analysis and would like to see more, please take a free subscription at my chartingthemarkets substack, where I publish these posts first. I also do a premarket video every day on equity indices, bonds, currencies, energies, precious commodities and other commodities at 8.45am EST, but only for paying subscribers. Other places to find me are my twitter, and my Youtube channel.

Looking Over The Cliff Edge on Crypto

In my post on Wednesday 22nd October I was looking at the major support being tested on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD), and Ethereum (ETHUSD), and saying that sustained breaks below those support levels would boost the case that the bull market on Crypto has already ended, barring possible high retests as part of the topping process. This was and is a major inflection point, and the direction of the break from this inflection point is still in the balance.

I was noting that the last two bull market highs on Bitcoin were in December 2017 and November 2021, close to the end of the year and four years apart, so the end of 2025 is the obvious period to be looking for an end to the current bull market, and I’ve had that pencilled in at the likely topping area all year.

In my last post on Thursday 30th October I was looking in detail at the key support levels on the weekly and daily charts and looking at the possible H&S patterns forming on the Solana and Ethereum charts.

Today all three of these are at the bottom of the inflection point, with Bitcoin well under the 200dma, and both Solana and Ethereum having completed and broken down from those H&S patterns with targets a long way lower. At this point I’m expecting that either they reject near here back into high retests, or continue down towards those targets and the double top target on Bitcoin, in which case the current bull market on Crypto has likely ended a few weeks earlier than I expected.

On Bitcoin the 200dma, currently at 109.990 has broken hard and Bitcoin is also currently below the key 50 week MA, currently at 102,958. This held on the last bull market until after the final high and a closing (weekly close on Sunday night) below the 50 week MA would be a very significant support break. At the time of writing Bitcoin is also testing the psychologically important 100k level.

BTCUSD weekly chart:

On the hourly chart an RSI 14 buy signal fixed today and I have a possible bull flag wedge forming, with an ideal support trendline currently in the 99k area.

BTCUSD 60min chart:

On Solana the weekly middle band has been tested as support every week for the last four weeks and finally broke at last week’s close. The 50 week MA was again only broken after the last bull market high in Q3 2021, but was broken hard in this bull market weeks after the all time high made in January, with Solana only breaking back above it with confidence in July.

The 50 week MA was triple support with rising wedge support from the April low and the 200dma both also in the 180 area and Solana has broken hard below all three yesterday and today. The only other decent support I’m watching here is rising support from the October 2023 low and that is currently in the 130 area.

I would also note from this weekly chart that there is still an open double top target on Solana in the 43 to 73 area. I had been assuming that double top was failing as I was expecting Solana to retest the all time high but as that hasn’t happened, that target is still valid.

SOLUSD weekly chart:

On the hourly chart another RSI 14 buy signal fixed today and while Solana remains above 126.09 there is still an open IHS target above in the 283 area. I have mentioned regularly before that when H&S patterns fail, it often happens with an H&S having formed in the opposite direction.

That may well be the case here as the H&S I was looking at last week completed forming and has broken down with a target at a retest of the April low at 95.24.

When H&S patterns fail it is generally not too long after the break down and with Solana having now retraced close to 61.8% of rising wedge from the April low, this would be a good time to reverse back up, if Solana can stop falling here.

SOLUSD 60min chart:

On Ethereum the weekly middle band has been tested as support every week for the last four weeks and has still not been broken on a weekly close basis. That’s currently at 3930.79. That is a big level on the weekly chart, with the other bigger level at the 50 week MA, currently at 3144.82. The 50 week MA on Ethereum was not broken until after the highs on the last two bull markets in early 2018 (on Ethereum, but in late 2017 on Bitcoin), and late 2021.

The low today is at 3297.63 at the time of writing, so we may see the 50 week MA tested soon.

ETHUSD weekly chart:

On the hourly chart another RSI 14 buy signal fixed today and as with all three of these a bull flag could still be forming here.

Alternatively, the H&S I was looking at last week has now completed and broken down with a target in the 2050 area.

ETHUSD 60min chart:

What’s the bottom line here? Well that this inflection point has formed now at all is suggesting that the bull market high is close, but then I’ve been talking about a high in the December 2025 area all year, and we are now in November.

This is a potential major support break and if prices continue down then I’d be leaning towards the bull market in Solana and Ethereum being over. The same would apply on Bitcoin, but with higher odds that we might see a final all time high retest before the main decline begins.

Since I started doing daily videos on Crypto early last year I’ve got Crypto direction right most of the time and more so than any other analyst anywhere that I’m aware of. I’m a very good analyst and all three of these instruments are very classical chartist friendly. I’m not much of a marketer though, and the free Crypto substack I set up last August still has less than 200 readers. I’d like to increase that readership and invite any suggestions on how I could do that.

If you’d like to see more of these posts please subscribe for free to my Crypto substack. I also do a premarket video every day on Crypto at 9.05am EST with morning charts for paying subscribers. All the videos I record are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel, and every post I publish is linked on my twitter.

A VERY Important Inflection Point on Crypto

In my last post on Wednesday 22nd October I was looking at the major support being tested on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Solana (SOLUSD), and Ethereum (ETHUSD), and saying that sustained breaks below those support levels would boost the case that the bull market on Crypto has already ended, barring possible high retests as part of the topping process. This was and is a major inflection point, and the direction of the break from this inflection point is still in the balance.

I was noting that the last two bull market highs on Bitcoin were in December 2017 and November 2021, close to the end of the year and four years apart, so the end of 2025 is the obvious period to be looking for an end to the current bull market, and I've had that pencilled in at the likely topping area all year.

On the Bitcoin weekly chart the first big support is the weekly middle band, which was tested as support for six or the seven weeks before Bitcoin broke below it at the weekly close before last. That failed to confirm the support break at the end of last week with Bitcoin closing back above it. Bitcoin is back below that again at the moment.

The second big support is at the 50 week MA, currently at 102,832, and this is the really important level, that held as support on a weekly close basis through the last bull market until after the final high, and has held so far as support in this bull market. If we should see a significant closing break below that then there will be a strong case that this bull market is over or ending.

BTCUSD weekly chart:

On the daily chart Bitcoin is testing the 200dma as support, currently at 109,372. This has been good support during this bull market and has been broken with conviction three times in the last two years, with these breaks delivering extended retracements lasting a further one, three and seven months before a sustained break back above.

If Bitcoin breaks down from this inflection point then a double top has already broken down with a target in the 88.3k to 90k area. If Bitcoin breaks up from this inflection point then a sustained break up directly from here (106.8k area), over the last rally high at 116.4k, would look for a retest of the all time high.

BTCUSD daily chart:

On Solana the weekly middle band has been tested as support every week for the last four weeks and has still not been broken on a weekly close basis. That may still hold as support. That’s currently at 190, just above the 50 week MA at 182.29. That 50 week MA was again only broken after the last bull market high in Q3 2021, but was broken hard weeks after the all time high made in January, with Solana only breaking back above it with confidence in July.

These are the two big levels on the weekly chart and the only other big level on this chart is the 200 week MA, which was tested at the 2025 low, and is currently at 102.06.

SOLUSD weekly chart:

On the daily chart rising wedge support from the April low and the 200dma are currently in the 178.50 area. If that wedge support breaks then the odds that the bull market high on Solana has already been made increase considerably, but a short term double bottom may still be forming.

If Solana breaks down from this inflection point then on a sustained break below the H&S neckline at 170 the H&S target would be at a retest of the April low at 95.24. If Solana breaks up from this inflection point, then a sustained break up directly from here or lower, over the last rally high at 211.4k, would look for a retest of the September high at 253.58.

SOLUSD daily chart:

On Ethereum the weekly middle band has been tested as support every week for the last four weeks and has still not been broken on a weekly close basis. That’s currently at 3857.27. That is a big level on the weekly chart, with the other bigger level at the 50 week MA, currently at 3142.14. The 50 week MA on Ethereum was not broken until after the highs on the last two bull markets in early 2018 (on Ethereum, but in late 2017 on Bitcoin), and late 2021.

ETHUSD weekly chart:

On the Ethereum daily chart the next big support is at the 200dma, currently at 3318.17. That’s been good support and is a decent match with the 50 week MA, so there is a big double support level in the 3100-3350 area.

If Ethereum breaks down from this inflection point then on a sustained break below the H&S neckline at 3600 the H&S target would be in the 2050 area. If Ethereum breaks up from this inflection point directly then there is no current bottoming pattern but if we see a retest of the recent low at 3546.88 then on a sustained break over the last rally high at 4253.83, I’d be looking for a retest of the all time high at 4955.89.

ETHUSD daily chart:

What’s the bottom line here? Well that we are seeing this inflection point now at all is suggesting that the bull market high is close, but then I’ve been talking about a high in the December 2025 area all year, and tomorrow is the last day of October.

Since I started doing daily videos on Crypto early last year I’ve got Crypto direction right most of the time and more so than any other analyst anywhere that I’m aware of. I’m a very good analyst and all three of these instruments are very classical chartist friendly. I’m not much of a marketer though, and the free Crypto substack I set up last August still has less than 200 readers. I’d like to increase that readership and invite any suggestions on how I could do that.

If you’d like to see more of these posts please subscribe for free to my Crypto substack. I also do a premarket video every day on Crypto at 9.05am EST with morning charts for paying subscribers. All the videos I record are posted shortly afterwards on my Youtube channel, and every post I publish is linked on my twitter.

Overthrowing The Rising Wedges

In my last post on 24th October I was looking at rising wedges on SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM from the April lows and weighing the odds of these breaking down into a substantial retracement in the near future.

For SPX, QQQ and DIA I was looking at possible upside targets if they went higher, which they have, but not on IWM where I was just looking for a possible high retest, which we have not quite seen yet.

Looking at the rising wedge on SPX the rising wedge resistance has been hit, and I have redrawn the wedge support through the last low as this means that the wedge has expanded, and has therefore not yet broken down. The high at the time of writing is breaking slightly over the high quality rising wedge resistance and this may be a bearish overthrow.

As I mentioned in my last post, this move has eliminated the double top setup but may still be an H&S forming.

SPX 60min chart:

Looking at the rising wedge on QQQ the first rising wedge resistance I showed has been hit and broken, and I have redrawn the wedge support through the last low as this means that the wedge has expanded. The high at the time of writing could be a bearish overthrow.

I posted a possible alternate wedge resistance trendline and that is now in the 834/5 area and may be hit next. If so, that would become the main wedge resistance trendline.

This move has eliminated the double top setup but may still be an H&S forming.

QQQ 60min chart:

Looking at the rising wedge on DIA the first rising wedge resistance I showed has been hit and broken, and I have redrawn the wedge support through the last low as this means that the wedge has expanded. The high at the time of writing could be a bearish overthrow.

I also posted a possible alternate wedge resistance trendline on DIA and that is now in the 484 area and may be hit next. If so, that would become the main wedge resistance trendline.

This move has eliminated the double top setup but may still be an H&S forming.

DIA 60min chart:

Looking at the rising wedge on IWM I was wondering about a high retest there and we almost saw one yesterday, but not quite. That may still need a retest.

IWM 60min chart:

So how is this looking now? Well the first thing to say is that all of SPX, QQQ and DIA have hit wedge resistance trendlines and may be overthrowing those bearishly. All are looking very short term overbought on the hourly RSIs.

On the SPX, QQQ and DIA daily charts they have also all hit or come very close to their 3sd upper bands this week, so we would usually see a period of consolidation or retracement over the next few days.

SPX daily chart:

I’m expecting to see at least some retracement or consolidation from this area. There is a case for a bit higher short term on QQQ, DIA and IWM, but after that at least a period of consolidation looks likely. In the short term I’m seeing hourly sell signals fixed or brewing on ES, NQ and YM that are generally a reliable signal of a short term high forming. There is also a historically bearish leaning day tomorrow.

Against a more substantial retracement here we have no current reversal patterns on SPX, QQQ and DIA, though H&S patterns may be forming. There are no current hourly RSI 14 or daily RSI 5 sell signals fixed or brewing on any of these four RTH indices.

We are now also almost through October, with only three full trading days left. There are good reasons to see a significant decline in November, the ongoing government shutdown, possible failure of trade negotiation with China, or the generally fragile state of the US economy, but November and December are still historically two of the most bullish months of the year, and all year I’ve been looking for a significant high on both equities and Crypto being made in or close to December.

The chart below shows the average daily price performance of the S&P 500 from 1928-2024. The average Santa rally starts on 27th October and over that period the average rise into the end of the year has been over 3%:

If we are seeing a break higher here then we would need to see some sustained breaks over the wedge resistance trendlines from the April lows, but that seems unlikely to start from here, and I am doubtful about that happening at all. These are high quality patterns and they have not delivered any meaningful retracement yet. We might instead see a slower move that just expands these wedges to the upside somewhat instead, though the higher probability resistance trendlines for these are the ones we have been testing here. Higher trendlines beyond would be harder to identify. At minimum we should see some consolidation from the current area.

The historical stats for the rest of this week are bearish on Wednesday, bullish on Thursday and neutral on Friday. For next week, the first trading week of November, Monday through Friday all lean bullish with the exception of Wednesday. There is only one bearish leaning day in November and only two in December, one of which is the last trading day of 2025.

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