USD is almost at the bottom of the 60min rising channel on DXM0:
CPCE has spiked below 0.5 in recent days, which has been a good indicator of an interim topping process for some years now:
I've identified an internal rising channel within the main ES rising channel that should cap any ES hourly close today at about ES 1162:
This is the moment of truth for the interim top scenario IMO. As long as these levels are not broken with any confidence then this leg of the equities rally is at or very near the top now.
If they don't hold then the next major resistance that I can see is at the 1200 level as you can see on this SPX daily chart, which also shows the main SPX rising channel:
If equities do keep rising without a correction here, then this declining channel on the Vix weekly chart also makes bleak reading for the bear side with the next target near the 14 level:
They say that it looks darkest just before the dawn and that's true enough. Equity bulls and USD bears were becoming hard to find at the last significant turn on Feb 5th as you can see from the BPNYA, CPCE and Vix charts. Until we see the BPNYA and USD channels broken, the case for a significant interim top for equities here remains strong.
If they fall though then the next significant interim top may well be over 1200.
There is a significant Gann turn date on Friday 19th March and Terry Laundry is looking at a significant turn date on Monday 22nd March. There are a number of lines in the sand drawn here. We'll see if they hold.
No comments:
Post a Comment