Lining Up Matchsticks

I'm on vacation this week but am still keeping half an eye on market action as I have an obsessive personality and watching the markets beats lining up long rows of matchsticks into perfect rows.

On ES we are near the bottom of the main wave 5 channel since Feb 5th. Alternatively this is an extended 3rd wave for the bear count:

For a closeup into the current wave 5 of 5 channel it is looking like this:

Now the question is where this will end. Difficult but the obvious target for a while has been SPX 1229 for the 61.8% fib. Anna & Fujisan are both talking about a hard push up into opex next week and that seems likely.

Given that the lower trendline for the main rising ES channel since Feb 5th is just a short way below, and that I think that channel will now be broken only after the end of this wave up since then, I'm not seeing significant room for downside in the next day or two at least, and before a wave 5 top is made, that downside room would be created only by a strong preceding move up.

Equity shorts should be cautious here.

As for USD we've been seeing some odd action but we haven't seen the decisive break up that would mark an end to the USD wave up since December. More likely that we are looking at a wave 5 ending diagonal that might play out like this:

Good trading everyone & if you aren't long here, remember that cash is a position. Patient bears will be looking out for the end of this 5 of 5 to complete five waves up since the March 2009 low, and signal what should at last be a serious retracement in the traditionally weak May to October period:

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