At that point I think we will then either go with the bear scenario for the summer, with powerful new USD and long term treasuries waves up, commodities getting trashed and SPX heading towards 870, or we'll go with the bull scenario, with the USD and long term treasuries rallies over, and commodities and equities headed for new highs.
I'm still definitely favoring the bear scenario for the summer but it could easily go the other way. Here's how I see the bear scenario on the daily SPX chart:
You can see why on the EURUSD 60min chart, as there was a falling wedge that broke and looked as though it might turn into a declining channel. However the retest of the broken wedge upper trendline suggests that it was indeed a wedge, and as I've been writing EURUSD has broken up from the rising channel so we may well EURUSD recover all of the losses from last week:
GBPUSD broke up from yesterday's declining channel and may yet be in a larger and shallower declining channel, but I think the break up through resistance at 1.508 looks very significant, and I'm expecting to see cable break upwards with EURUSD:
Mixed signals abound though. Here's a bearish chart for oil, with the recent rising wedge lower trendline broken and retested. It may still be in a rising channel though, so I've have put in both bull and bear scenarios as a little homage to Mole, who took some time out from his busy schedule to ban me from his blog again last week for no reason I can think of :
On the bull side there is an IHS on the AUDUSD 60min chart indicating to a somewhat incredible 91. The neckline appears to be breaking at the moment:
I'm taking another day off today as I'm still worn out from the weekend. I'll be keeping an eye on the market & I'll check in later with anything that looks interesting.
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