Bearish Cast

I went to the hospital this morning to upgrade to my full cast. Here is the quick post that I wrote before I went to the hospital.

As I mentioned last week the low last week, if that was a major low, wasn't a great low for bulls as it left decent looking H&S patterns forming on SPX, NDX and RUT. Here's how that would look on SPX:

There's definitely unfinished business below, and a move up directly from here would suggest strongly to me that we'd see a move back to test these levels again later in the summer. Looking at ES on Friday and overnight though, there is still a strong possibility that we could see a better low made now. The trading stats for this week are grim, with (from my Stock Trader's Almanac) Dow down the last eleven trading weeks after June opex and down 18 of the last 20, with an average loss of 1.2%. It wouldn't take a lot to reach the support trendline on SPX from here:

Vix closed back within the daily bollinger bands last week, and another red candle on Vix today would confirm a Vix buy signal for equities. The reliability on these signals isn't bad at all and that's something to watch today:

EURUSD has peaked slightly short of my Friday morning target (so far) and if we see an hourly close below 1.42 I'd be looking for a new low. The big news on EURUSD is the Greek vote of confidence in the government today. I think the government may well fall and that could make for an interesting week on many fronts:

The last 90s support level on oil I was talking about on Friday morning held on Friday but failed overnight. That clears the path for oil to retrace to the mid-80s and looks bearish for equities too:

I have an additional chart to post today on top of my own and that is a great chart from Gann360, who many of you will remember from a while ago at slope posting as Joe8888. Gann360 is his twitter handle and I originally joined twitter just to follow him, as his charting is superb and always well worth keeping an eye on.

All in all I'm leaning bearish here, but the key indicator that I'm watching today is the Vix. A confirmed Vix buy signal today would definitely be bullish.