Opex Friday

The first thing to mention today is that it is Opex Friday, and we don't tend to see big moves on Opex days. That said there are some real signs of weakness this morning. I was looking for a hit of the upper bollinger band on SPX yesterday and the high fell slightly short of that. I would normally expect to see an exact hit here but we don't always get that:

We did however get the new high on negative divergence on the SPX 15min chart that I was looking for. I have rising channel support in the 1363-5 area today:

Looking at the RUT chart, that has been substantially underperforming SPX in recent days and has not yet made a higher high. A little bearish rising wedge has formed from the last low that looks as though it will break down at the open. The obvious target would be rising support from the June low in the 790 area:

EURUSD hasn't bounced much in recent days but I tend to look at GBPUSD as a better guide to the anti-USD trade. That has formed a rising wedge from the last low which is breaking down overnight:

USD needs to maintain upwards momentum and break over strong resistance at the August 2010 high. I'd be looking for a strong move up starting soon. That fits with GBPUSD weakness here and with the next obvious EURUSD target in the 1.19 - 1.20 area:

I'm still reading some very bullish takes on the market here, but this still looks corrective to me. Dr Copper is also not impressed yet:

I'm not expecting a big move today, and I have SPX support in the 1363-5 area. My feeling is that support should probably hold today. If support breaks then there is a very significant possibility that the rally from early June has finished, with a nice looking potential double top set up on ES, SPX and NDX with targets near the June lows.