Major Support Breaks on ES and Copper

Just a quick post today as a friend needed to talk to me about something this morning for a couple of hours. As I'm now a bit time constrained I'll just review the very interesting positions on ES and copper. Firstly on the big picture ES 60min chart from the March lows, the big IHS neckline held as support yesterday but has broken overnight. The target at the lower trendline of the rising channel should be in the 1315 - 1320 area:

Blowing up this 60min chart to show the shorter term picture there are a number of interesting aspects to this. The little H&S I posted yesterday morning has obviously broken down, and the neckline was retested overnight. The target is 1320 and I'm expecting to see that target hit in the context of the larger channel. The second pattern however is a broadening descending wedge which should limit immediate downside today to the 1328-30 area if the support trendline holds. I've also marked up the chart to show the triple resistance area in the 1346-8 range. If that breaks up without first hitting the 1315-20 target I'd expect to see a bounce into at least the 1360s before another wave down to hit the main channel target:

I've been writing for several weeks about the big picture on copper that strongly suggests that 365 is the next target on a break of strong support at 408. 408 broke overnight so here's an update of that big picture to refresh your memories:

Taking another view of copper on the HG daily chart underlines the importance of this support break:

I've just got time for one more chart I think, so here's the updated daily chart for oil, where the support trendline I highlighted yesterday has now broken down. The obvious target in my view is the strong support level (and possible H&S neckline) in the 96 area:

I'm obviously leaning bearish on the overnight action but downside today on ES should be limited to the 1328-30 area on the basis of the short term broadening wedge there. My main target is below there and could be hit within that wedge overnight or more likely tomorrow.