Packing for the Weekend

I'm packing for the long weekend and travelling today, and many others will be doing the same, so volume into the end of the week is likely to be feeble. I will just post one chart today and this will most likely be my last post until Wednesday 4th December, though I'll most likely post the odd chart on twitter between now and then.

The main thing to watch today is the bear setup on SPX, which may or not play out obviously, but will command attention if SPX can take out yesterday's intraday low at 1800.77. The smaller double bottom marked would target the 1793 area on that break, and a test of rising support from 1746 in that area. If that were to break then next serious support would be at 1777. On a break below 1777 the larger double-top would trigger with a target in the 1746 area for a full retracement of the latest move up. SPX 60min chart:

Does this reversal setup have a real shot? Well on the plus side SPX is obviously bumping up against stiff resistance here and is obviously overbought with a lot of negative divergence on multiple timeframes. There is also clear 60min negative RSI divergence and the strong rejection at the close was encouraging.

On the other hand the bears could have used a gap down this morning and didn't get that, and ES is now back above the 50 hour MA at 1803.25 and holding that as support. Thanksgiving week also has a bullish bias into the end of the week and low volume holiday trading tends to favor the bulls. We'll see if SPX can take out yesterday's low. 

Everyone have a great holiday weekend :-)