The Day Before

I don't know how long it will last, but yesterday was recognisably the second day of a band ride on the SPX daily upper band. ES looks as though SPX should open near the upper band,so whichever way it goes, this should be a third day for that band ride. There may be no more than that as quite a few band rides fail after the third day. If SPX has a strong day then I'd expect the upper band to close in the 1981-3 range today. SPX daily chart:

There's some decent looking resistance not far above on both SPX and NDX, and I'm wondering whether we might see a marginal new high today followed by a retracement early next week. On SPX I'd be looking for possible resistance in the 1982.5 to 1985 area today. SPX 15min chart:

As it seems SPX will most likely gap up strongly at the open I'll be watching to see whether very well established rising channel resistance can hold on NDX. If NDX gaps over it then the obvious target is the higher trendline I have drawn in. If NDX can't break over the channel resistance even as SPX is making new highs, then the odds will be high that we are making at least a short term high in this area. NDX 60min chart:

TNX has been trading within an inflection point range over the last two weeks, and made a real effort to break down from the possible double top early this week. That has failed and the chances are now high that TNX will break up from the inflection point to retest the end December high at 30.36. TNX 60min chart:

Today and Monday are neutral on the stats for the last five years. Five red and five green closes for each over the last decade. There is a bias after a narrow range day like yesterday for today to also close the day within a five point range of yesterday's close. Today is a half day of course.

I'm planning a post this weekend looking at past combinations of two successive calendar years where SPX has tested neither the 200 DMA nor the weekly lower band, and what happened in the third year. Everybody have a great holiday weekend :-)